Jake Peavy was once one of the best pitchers in baseball. From 2004 to 2008 he pitched almost 1,000 innings of 2.95 ERA ball, and won a Cy Young award. Making half his starts in San Diego helped, but he was legitimately really, really good. The Padres signed him to a hefty extension, but then dealt him at the 2009 trade deadline to the White Sox. Since then, injuries have taken their toll. Coming into 2011, Peavy seemed like more of an after-though in the Chicago rotation – especially since he started the season on the DL.
A 5.13 ERA in 73.2 IP this year does not tell the tale of how well Peavy has pitched. No longer the dominant hurler of his youth, Peavy has taken to throwing the cutter, two-seamer, and change more (that is, mixing things up a bit further), with tightened up breaking-balls (they don’t sweep across the plate as much as they used to). Combined with improved control, he’s been able to be effective with only an average strike-out rate. And yet, since the beginning of July he has nothing to show for it.
Peavy is 0-4 during that span, with a 6.14 ERA. This despite a 3.13 FIP, on the strength of a 6.4 K/9 (a bit below his season average), a 2.1 BB/9 (a bit above his season average), and 0 home runs allowed. He’s gotten killed by balls in play, with a .394 BABIP (.323 for the season). Teams are constantly stringing baserunners together to score runs – his left on base rate is well below average for the season at 61%, and it’s been even worse during this stretch. That shouldn’t hide the fact the Peavy is having a fine little season on the South Side, though (2.1 Wins Above Replacement).
In reality, a relatively healthy Jake Peavy who keeps pitching like this is going to be a solid contributor for the White Sox. He even has an outside chance of actually earning his $17 M salary for next year (though I’m 99% sure the $22 M option for 2013 will be declined, even with the $4 M buyout).
