CC Sabathia is carrying the Yankees rotation on his rather large back this season. He’s thrown 34 more innings than the #2 man on New York’s staff (AJ Burnett) and 59 more than the #3 man (Freddy Garcia). He’s among the AL leaders in innings pitched, wins, and strikeouts. He’s been worth 5.9 WAR already this season, and still has a good ten starts left in his tank. 2011 could be the best year of his career, better than even his Cy Young season of 2007 or his carrying of the Brewers in 2008. There is one little detail about Sabathia that is flying a little under the radar: he can opt out of his contract with the Yankees after the season. Should he exercise this option?
When I pose that question to you, you probably think that the concept of Sabathia opting out is laughable. He’s making $23 million this season, and will make that much until 2015 when he’s 35 years old. At 31 right now, Sabathia is in his prime. He could opt out of the deal in an effort to get even more money. 2011 has been a return to the greatness that has thusfar eluded him in New York. Critics saying that he couldn’t pitch on the big stage have been silenced by Sabathia’s tremendous efforts this year. But yet, his season seems to be flying under the radar due to the fantastic years put together by Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver.
But why would Sabathia want to opt out? He’s already playing for the team that would be the highest bidder in his sweepstakes. It comes down to one word: opportunity. Looking at a list of the free agent starting pitchers after this season gives me a shocking revelation: the crop of starters that will be on the market is awful. The best pitchers that will be free agents (IE, their contracts don’t have option years that will be probably be exercised) are guys like Mark Buerhle, Aaron Harang, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Javier Vazquez, and CJ Wilson. Wilson is the best of the bunch, and the only one that could conceivably head up a rotation. The rest of the gang is mostly full of third or fourth starter types who are past their primes. Sabathia would be the cream of the crop.
But would he even be able to get more money? With the Yankees as his current team, they might have less of an inclination to get into a bidding war for Sabathia, despite their need for a front-line starter. If Wilson signs elsewhere, a team like the Rangers could have interest in Sabathia due to their sub-standard starting pitching past a young Alexi Ogando and the smoke and mirrors season that Matt Harrison is having so far. But the Rangers were outbid for Cliff Lee by the Phillies. Would they be willing to open their wallets for Lee’s former teammate in Sabathia?
What about the Red Sox? Boston has never had an issue spending money, and has salary coming off the books in JD Drew and (likely) Jonathan Papelbon. But Boston has a lot of money tied up in their rotation, with Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey making eight figures to struggle for the team. Both are under contract in 2012, with Lackey under contract until 2014. Even the normally loose Red Sox would probably have problems with a rotation that has four players making eight figures.
Another interesting, albeit unlikely, team could be the New York Mets. The team will be cutting a lot of salary off their payroll once this season ends, with the released Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez off the books, and Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez out of town. New York is going to need free money to re-sign shortstop Jose Reyes, and with an injured Johan Santana still making $20+ million until 2013, money could be an issue for the team that was hemorraging money earlier this year after the Bernie Madoff scandal crippled Jeff Wilpon’s finances.
At the end of the day, I think Sabathia will swallow his tongue and stay in New York, just because of the lack of real options on the market. But it would certainly create quite an interesting scenario if New York’s ace decides to test the free agent waters this offseason.
