With 50 games (or less, in most cases) remaining in the 2013 season, playoff races are supposed to be heating up. And in the American League, they are. Nine teams are above .500 and in the hunt, and seven of those nine teams are within 1.5 games of the playoffs. It's getting pretty hot and heavy, and no division lead is really *too* safe, though the Tigers have to be feeling pretty comfortable now.
But in the National League, it's a different story. There are only six teams above .500 in the entire league. Five of them are playoff teams and the remaining one, the Arizona Diamondbacks, are 4.5 games out of the wild card and five back of the division lead. Arizona is just two games over .500, and they're under .500 since the All-Star Break. In the National League, the five current playoff teams all possess playoff odds (according to Baseball Prospectus) of over 90%, with the Braves, Pirates, and Cardinals all clocking in at north of 99%. The Diamondbacks have a playoff percentages of 11.7%, and only the Washington Nationals have a better than 1% chance at making the playoffs.
Contrast that to the American League, where the Red Sox, Rays, and Tigers are all north of 90%. The Rangers and A's are both north of 70%, while the Indians just fell below 40%, and the Orioles are hanging in there above 20%. So going forth for fans of National League teams, is there anything to even watch for?
Of course there is! And I can sum up the watchability in one word: seeding. The Rangers blew a four game lead in the AL West with six to play, were forced to host the Orioles in the wild card game, and got pushed out of the playoffs in one game by the Orioles, who scraped and clawed their way to a wild card berth. The Braves coasted through 2012 in the NL, handily won the NL's top wild card spot over the Cardinals, and were upset in Atlanta by St Louis. It's worth noting that the Rangers and Braves started their best pitchers (Yu Darvish and Kris Medlen respectively) for the wild card game, while the Orioles started Joe Saunders and the Cardinals started Kyle Lohse, neither of whom was their ace. The teams that were able to set their rotations didn't benefit like most expected.
Now, look at the National League this year. The Braves are mere percentage points behind the Pirates for the NL's top record this season, with the Cardinals lurking two games behind the Pirates. The team between Atlanta and the NL Central winner that doesn't get the top seed in the NL gets to face the Dodgers (or the Diamondbacks, if Los Angeles plays like they did in April and May in August and September). Now, while the Braves, Pirates, and Cardinals have played solid, consistent baseball all season, the Dodgers have been on a crazy run lately, winning games at a .661 clip overall since June 1st while also winning nearly 70% of their road games over the same stretch. Playing a hot team is one thing, but playing a hot team that is systemically destroying teams on the road isn't a good thing for any of them.
Getting out of the wild card is crucial for another reason for the Pirates and Cardinals, and that's homefield advantage. While either team looks like it would be hosting a wild card game with the Reds (currently 4.5 games back of the Cardinals for the top wild card spot), getting the first two home games in the NLDS would be a much better situation for either team. The Pirates have a .661 winning percentage at PNC Park, while the Cardinals are playing .647 baseball at Busch Stadium. Extra time at home for either team would be a welcome scenario for either. Getting the top seed in the NL is also crucial for the Braves. While Atlanta seems pretty close to already having homefield advantage in the NLDS locked down, they're still fighting for the NL's top record. At Turner Field this season, the Braves are winning at a remarkable .717 clip and are an astounding 14-2 against all the NL teams above .500 this year, sweeping the Dodgers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals while splitting a four game set with the Reds.
So while we can pretty confidently say which NL teams are going to be playing October baseball, there's still a lot to watch as to who will be playing who and where. We don't necessarily need to cheer for a collapse (and there have indeed been a lot of them in recent seasons) for the NL playoff race to be compelling down the stretch. While in the American League, teams are just trying to get through the door, teams in the National League are trying to set themselves up for further success in the fall.
