The trade deadline has passed. Teams have pretty much have their rosters set for the final two months of the season, barring waiver claims and prospect call-ups. Barring injuries, these are the rosters that these teams are going to war with. After all the dust has settled, who are the favorites over the season’s final two months?
AL East. The Red Sox and Yankees were both shockingly quiet at the deadline. The Yankees have holes in their rotation, and appear to be content to go into battle with Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia manning two slots of their front five. Sure, the team has gotten Phil Hughes back over the past couple of weeks. In four July starts, Hughes has struck out 13 and walked nine in 21 1/3 innings. His fastball velocity is two miles per hour slower than last year. Is he even going to be a factor for this team down the stretch? The Yankees are still going to coast into the playoffs with their dynamic offense, but the Red Sox will likely take the division, even with the news today that Clay Buchholz could miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his back. That Erik Bedard trade is looking pretty good right now, huh? Bedard will immediately slot in as Boston’s third best starter behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. He needs to hold up to the pressures of a pennant race in Boston for the Red Sox to have a chance to advance far in the playoffs. The offense is stout, but the starting pitcher is a concern. Both teams have the same issue right now, but I’d lean on Boston’s pitching more than New York’s.
AL Central. This one is going to be a barnburner. Both of the teams at the head of the division added some pitching help, with the Tigers bringing in Doug Fister, and the Indians shocking the world by picking up Ubaldo Jimenez. Both teams also acquired a little offense, with Detroit snagging Wilson Betemit from Kansas City, and Cleveland acquiring Kosuke Fukudome from the Cubs. So who is the favorite down the stretch? Perhaps more importantly, can the White Sox make a run? Chicago traded Edwin Jackson for bullpen help, and made no other significant moves. They were going with a six man rotation, and now are back down to a more conventional five. Chicago’s rotation is very stout, and if their offense (most notably Alex Rios, Gordon Beckman and Alexei Ramirez) starts to put it together, they could most definitely steal the division. I’m really in love with this White Sox team, and think they are the best team in the division. I think Cleveland trading for Jimenez was un-necessary, because their major problem was offense. I really don’t think Fukudome is enough of an upgrade for the team, though the trade of Orlando Cabrera to let Jason Kipnis play every day could help them. As for Detroit, their rotation was a cast of disappointments after Justin Verlander. Fister could help hold the rotation down, and if Max Scherzer is able to rebound, that’s a pretty great top three. This is a really tight race, and I still think that the White Sox are going to take it. I’m not losing faith.
AL West. Well, the Rangers beefed up their team without giving away any parts that were very significant. Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis weren’t going to be integral parts of the team’s season this year, and Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland wouldn’t be relevant until late-2012 at the absolutely earliest. In exchange, the team added two of the best relievers on the market. Yeah, that’ll work. Now, the team has insurance for Neftali Feliz in case he continues to struggles. The Angels didn’t do anything whatsoever, and seem to be resigned to the fact that they’re not going to topple the Ranger train this year. After years of dominance by the Angels, the Rangers have taken control of the division in recent years, and with their youth and the farm system they have, it doesn’t look like they’re going to relinquish the lead any time soon.
NL East. Like in the American League, the two best teams in the league resides in the east. The Phillies and Braves are both going to the playoffs, with the Phillies having a six game lead on the Braves and the Braves having a 3.5 game lead in the wild card. Both teams also improved at the deadline, with the Phillies adding Hunter Pence and the Braves bringing in Michael Bourn. The Phillies are probably going to win the division, due to the massive lead they’ve amassed (largest in baseball by 3.5 games) and the fact that their three headed monster of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee has been just as good as advertised. Even as a Braves homer, I don’t think they’ll have enough juice left in their tank to catch the Phillies. But the addition of Bourn will be enough to lock up the wild card much earlier than they did last season.
NL Central. All bets are off in this one. There are four teams in the running, right now, and the teams in second and fourth have the best run differentials. I think the Reds have given up on the year, despite being a +40 on the season, due to their lack of moves at the deadline. The team really could have used a starting pitcher, as Johnny Cueto is the only one with an ERA under 3.80 (a league leading 1.72). The Reds are a platoon happy team, and really could have used some solidity at some of their positions despite their high run total. As for the rest of the division? The Pirates made lateral moves by bringing in Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee, but even if they fail to make the playoffs, at least their fans will have some hope in the future. The Cardinals and Brewers are the two favorites right now. The Cardinals improved their team a little more by bringing in Rafael Furcal and Edwin Jackson (while downgrading in center field from Colby Rasmus to Jon Jay). The Brewers upgraded the back end of their bullpen with Francisco Rodriguez and their bench with Jerry Hairston. The left side of their infield is still terrible, and with Rickie Weeks out for a couple of weeks, the Brewers could struggle in the month of August. I think they still hang on to get the crown, and that’s just because of my complete and utter hatred for Tony LaRussa.
NL West. The Rockies bowed out of the race by trading Ubaldo Jimenez, and it’s down to the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants and the young and scrappy Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants upgraded in the outfield big time by acquiring Carlos Beltran, and made a questionable move by bringing in Orlando Cabrera to play short. I’m not sure Cabrera is really an upgrade over Miguel Tejada and/or Brandon Crawford, but Brian Sabean is banking on it. Also, they’re still playing Aubrey Huff every day while Brandon Belt languishes on the bench. That’s just silly. As for the Diamondbacks, they didn’t get a fix for Stephen Drew at short, but did bring in Jason Marquis for the back end of the rotation and Brad Ziegler for the bullpen. Arizona didn’t make a huge splash in the trade market, but I think that their moves were solid and improved the team. But were they enough to counter the Giants bringing in Beltran? Of course not. The Giants repeat as NL West champions.
Overall picks…
AL East: Boston
AL Central: Chicago
AL West: Texas
AL Wild Card: New York
NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: Milwaukee
NL West: San Francisco
NL Wild Card: Atlanta
