Most savvy baseball people know that you don't throw handfuls of cash at closers (or any relief pitchers, for that matter). That doesn't stop teams from paying the big money though, because of the myth of the capital C closer. Let's quickly recap last season's top five closers in terms of saves, shall we?
1) Jim Johnson, Orioles
LAST YEAR: 51 saves, three blown saves, 2.49 ERA, 1.2 fWAR
THIS YEAR: 15 saves, four blown saves, 5.25 ERA, 0.1 fWAR
2) Fernando Rodney, Rays
LAST YEAR: 48 saves, two blown saves, 0.60 ERA, 2.3 fWAR
THIS YEAR: 9 saves, five blown saves, 5.48 ERA, -0.3 fWAR
3) Craig Kimbrel, Braves
LAST YEAR: 42 saves, three blown saves, 1.01 ERA, 3.3 fWAR
THIS YEAR: 16 saves, three blown saves, 2.21 ERA, 0.4 fWAR
4) Rafael Soriano, Yankees
LAST YEAR: 42 saves, four blown saves, 2.26 ERA, 1.2 fWAR
THIS YEAR: 14 saves, three blown saves, 2.86 ERA, 0.3 fWAR
5) Jason Motte, Cardinals
LAST YEAR: 42 saves, seven blown saves, 2.75 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
THIS YEAR: hasn't thrown a pitch, Tommy John surgery
To briefly summarize, of the top five closers last year, three of them have equaled last year's blown save total, one is one blown save away from equaling it, and one won't throw a pitch this season. Of those five, only Soriano was a free agent, and he got a two year, $28 million deal for Washington. Motte got a two year, $12 million deal to avoid arbitration in January. Johnson got a nearly $4 million raise in his third of four arbitration years. Rodney and Kimbrel are the only real bargains of the group, as Kimbrel is still pre-arb (until next year, when he'll get very expensive very quickly) and Rodney was signed to a one year deal with a club option prior to the 2012 season, and is being paid a whopping $2.5 million this year.
But looking at the top closers thusfar this season, things are just a bit different.
1) Jason Grilli, Pirates
21 saves, 0 blown saves, 1.14 ERA, 1.3 fWAR
2) Mariano Rivera, Yankees
18 saves, one blown save, 1.86 ERA, 0.7 fWAR
3) Addison Reed, White Sox
17 saves, one blown save, 1.96 ERA, 1.0 fWAR
4) Edward Mujica, Cardinals
16 saves, 0 blown saves, 1.96 ERA, 0.5 fWAR
5) Kimbrel
The Pirates re-signed Grilli to a bargain two-year, $6.75 million deal this winter. They also traded former closer Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox for a package that included top setup man Mark Melancon. Hanrahan got $7.04 million in arbitration from Boston, threw 7 1/3 innings of 9.82 ERA ball, and had flexor tendon and Tommy John surgery this month. Reed is still pre-arb. Kimbrel is still pre-arb, as we mentioned earlier. Mujica was acquired by the Cardinals at the trade deadline last year from the Marlins for a minor prospect in Zach Cox, and is making $3.2 million this year in his last year of arbitration. Rivera blew his knee out last May, and re-signed with the Yankees for $10 million.
None of the players thriving this year were signed to a massive free agent contract aside from Rivera, who is the greatest closer of all-time. And here's a fun little fact too: none of these guys really came out of nowhere to thrive. Reed had a 4.75 ERA last year, but struck out nearly a batter an inning and was a hair shy of being a one win pitcher. Grilli was a one win guy for the Pirates as Hanrahan's setup man. Mujica has a 1.03 ERA after the trade last year, and struck out seven times as many hitters as he walked. Yet, none of those three really had the capital C closer label attached to them. Hell, only Reed had any real experience as a closer of that trio coming into the season, and he wasn't even Chicago's closer coming into the season!
Meanwhile, look at the big money contracts that closers inked in recent years. Heath Bell got $27 million from the Marlins, was banished to Arizona after one season, and has a 4.80 ERA and ten blown saves since signing the contract. The Mets gave Frank Francisco two years and $12 million before the 2012 season, and rewarded them with a 5.53 ERA and three blown saves last year while not throwing a pitch this year due to elbow surgery. Carlos Marmol's three-year, $20 million contract with the Cubs has resulted in 107 walks and 15 blown saves over the life of the contract (so far) along with him losing his position as closer at least three times. And remember: that's just contracts still on the books. I'm not even going to touch the disastrous contracts signed by guys like BJ Ryan, Kerry Wood, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, and Joe Nathan.
Moral of the story: handing huge contracts to relievers is stupid. Atlanta's three best relievers over the last five years consisted of a converted starter (Jonny Venters), a waiver claim (Eric O'Flaherty), and a draft pick (Kimbrel). Oakland's best relievers over the past five years have included a draft pick that they immediately traded after he became successful (Andrew Bailey), a converted first baseman (Sean Doolitte), a throw-in in a trade (Ryan Cook), and a scrap heap free agent (Grant Balfour). The Padres and Giants bullpens are largely homegrown or trade throw-ins. And would you imagine that, those are the teams with the best bullpens in baseball year in and year out.
The next Moneyball-style inefficiency to be exploited may be building a bullpen. The Phillies are paying $18 million to Jonathan Papelbon, and their pen has the fourth-worst ERA in baseball. Boston is paying three relievers over $4 million each, and their pen's ERA is over 4.00. The Angels threw money at their bullpen like it was going out of style, and they've been smashed by injuries and are still struggling to finish games. Meanwhile, the Braves currently have zero relievers in their pen making more than Kimbrel's $655,000.
Some teams knows what they're doing, and some don't. It's no surprise that the ones who are being thrifty with relief are the ones that are succeeding.
