With Carlos Beltran off the market, and Jose Reyes not being traded, the hottest name on the trading market right now is…Hunter Pence of the Astros? How did this happen? There are reportedly up to half a dozen teams in the market for Pence, with the two teams most prominently linked to him being the Phillies and Braves. I’m not sure if Pence would be a great fit for either team.
The Phillies are going hard after Pence, and reportedly offered top prospects Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart, along with a third player for the Astros right fielder. GM Ed Wade inexplicably declined the offer. Singleton and Cosart were both in the top 25 of ESPN analyst Keith Law’s midseason prospect rankings. You can’t really do much more of an offer. Why would Wade decline the offer? There is only one answer in my mind: from the Phillies, he wants Domonic Brown. Brown was a top five prospect coming into the season. Brown isn’t having a bad year in the majors, posting a .737 OPS with great walk and strikeout rates in 53 games. That’s apparently not good enough for the Phillies, who are looking at Pence, a right fielder, to supplant Brown in right. I’m not really sure why they want to do this, when Brown is only 23 years old (turns 24 in September), is highly touted and talented, and could be a future pillar of the organization. Trading away Brown to get Pence would be a downgrade, because it would also leave the team with a hole in left field next season when Raul Ibanez’s awful contract finally vanishes from Philly’s books.
Pence is an even worse fit for Atlanta. The Braves need a center fielder. Pence hasn’t played center field since 2007, and was an average defender in that year. He’s been a right fielder since that season due to the emergence of Michael Bourn for Houston. As you all should know, the Braves have their own phenom in right field, a guy by the name of Jason Heyward. Heyward is having a down year, with a .712 OPS that can be owed mostly to bad luck and injury (along with a change in approach likely put forth by new hitting coach Larry Parrish). Unlike Brown, Heyward is already established as a cornerstone of the franchise. This guy isn’t Jeff Francoeur, who had major holes in his game when he was called up to Atlanta. Heyward is a five tool, complete player, and the ideas put forward of demoting him to the minors or platooning him are absolutely ridiculous.
Pence doesn’t fill the needs of either the Braves or the Phillies. Quite frankly, he’s a good player, but not a great one. He has one season abot 4.0 fWAR (4.1 in 2009). He doesn’t walk all that much (6.8% career walk rate). He doesn’t have exceptional power (.190 career ISO). He’s just a slightly above average corner outfielder. Nothing more, nothing less. If you’re going to sell the farm for a player, you need to make sure it’s a superstar. If Matt Kemp was on the market, he’d be a guy you do that for. But Hunter Pence? He’s not a superstar. Hell, he’s not even a star. He’s just the most well known player on a bad team, and for some reason, people think that makes him a good fit for a contender. He’s not.
