Playing in a division that was predicted to be all Indians and Royals prior to the season and was ordained the White Sox in May, the Tigers postseason hopes lasted until the final day of the season while Chicago and Kansas City faded much earlier.
Even so, the Tigers have to be concerned that their window for a World Series title may be passing by. After four straight playoff appearances, including three trips to the ALCS from 2011 through 2013, Detroit has missed the postseason in consecutive years and the majority of the roster remains old and extremely expensive. If anything, they overachieved this year and one has to wonder how many more productive years their talent base of Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Victor Martinez have left.
Preseason Prediction: The AL Central should be extremely competitive, arguably the toughest division to predict in MLB. The improvements that the Tigers made should help them avoid a second consecutive last-place finish, but are they good enough to hang with or even overtake the Royals and Indians, along with an improved White Sox team? Third place with an outside chance at the second wild-card spot might be the best Detroit can hope for in 2016. (Ian Casselberry, March 28)
What Went Right: Believe it or not, the Tigers are still very good at scoring runs. They finished the season 11th in MLB and sixth in the AL with 750 runs, more than they scored last year and their 12th time in the last 13 seasons with at least 720 runs scored. The best trade in recent memory for the Tigers is still working out, as Prince Fielder was forced to retire this season, while Ian Kinsler is still going strong, providing a .288/.348/.484 line with stellar defense. Cabrera is still arguably the best pure hitter in the AL, although he should be confined to a DH role, and Justin Upton really turned things up in the second half. In all, five Tigers hit at least 2o home runs with Cabrera leading the way at 38 and third baseman Nick Castellanos finally had a breakout season with 18 before he was injured and missed almost all of August and September.
On the mound, Verlander had his best season since 2012 when he came in second for the AL Cy Young Award (something that could happen again). He led the league in strikeouts with 254 and his teammate, Michael Fulmer (who could possibly follow Verlander with a AL Rookie of the Year award) had nearly as good of a year with a 3.06 ERA in 159 innings.
DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 10: Jordan Zimmermann #27 of the Detroit Tigers is pulled by manager Brad Ausmus #7 of the Detroit Tigers during the second inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park on September 10, 2016 in Detroit, Michigan. Zimmermann allowed six runs on four hits, with three home runs, in a 11-3 loss to the Orioles. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Beyond those two in the starting rotation, things got scary. Big-money free agent Jordan Zimmermann was almost always terrible or injured, finishing the year with just a 4.87 ERA in 105.1 innings and an $18 million receipt with $92 million more owed over the next four years. Two more not quite as expensive free agents, Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez, were much worse and two recent trade acquisitions, Shane Greene (for Robbie Ray) and Daniel Norris (for David Price) both tried and failed in the rotation this year.
Not only is the rotation extremely expensive and less than adequate, all the big names (Verlander, Zimmermann, Sanchez and Pelfrey) are guaranteed money in 2017, with the main three being owed substantial amounts through 2018.
Most Surprising Player: Castellanos had a great season, but there is no question here that AL Rookie of the Year candidate Fulmer was the Tigers’ breakout star. He was worth three wins according to fWAR, but because his replacement would have been a worse option than the pitchers already mentioned, he was likely worth far more than that. Among regular starters, he had the highest ground ball rate and lowest home run rate, using the solid middle infield combination of Jose Iglesias and Kinsler to his benefit.
Given the gigantic outfield at Comerica and the absolutely terrible outfield defense, particularly from J.D. Martinez (who should also be a DH) and Justin Upton, the Tigers would be much better fitted to base their rotation off players like Fulmer rather than strikeout/fly-ball pitchers like Sanchez, Norris and Verlander. Of course, they could also try to fix their outfield defense, but given their current financial situation, that is unlikely.
Most Disappointing Player: This has to be Zimmermann, who was singlehandedly expected to fix the Tigers rotation in a way that Fulmer actually did. The Tigers literally paid him $1 million per start and after a great April (5-0, 0.55 ERA), he had a 6.84 ERA, including five starts where he allowed at least six runs. The Tigers will have to hope that his problems were injury-based (he strained his groin, lat and neck this year, resulting in three separate DL stints) and that he can return to the pitcher he was in April and from 2011 through 2015 with Washington, because it will be years until they are out of his contract.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN- AUGUST 24: Justin Upton #8 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with Victor Martinez #41 after hitting a home run against the Minnesota Twins on August 24, 2016 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Tigers defeated the Twins 9-4. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)
The Future: As mentioned repeatedly, the Tigers have a very expensive and elderly team. Cabrera is signed through 2023 with options through 2025. Verlander is signed through 2013, Victor Martinez through 2018, Zimmermann 2020 and Upton through 2021. All combined, this is over $550 million for five players and they will have to give J.D. Martinez similar money if they don’t want to lose him after 2017. They would likely be best trading Martinez while he still has a year of cheap team control left, particularly because they already have two DHs who are signed long-term.
Beyond Fulmer, the Tigers didn’t really have any standout youngsters and given contractual situations all around and the current state of their upper minor league system, it’s unlikely that they will next year either. In addition, team owner Mike Ilitch has been steadfast in his determination to win now and will likely take the near-wild card berth this season as reason to add even more salary in 2017. It would be nearly impossible to sell off this team, but the Tigers would likely be best served by a little bit of a reload if they could move valuable players like Martinez or mid-salary guys who could possibly be movable like Sanchez. Honestly, the Tigers are in a bad position and things aren’t likely to get any better over the next three or four years.
