Despite coming into the season with postseason aspirations based off their 2015 success and not playing in a division with the Cubs, the Minnesota Twins have been the first team eliminated from the playoffs in the 2016 season.
Bolstered by a group of talented rookies, Minnesota finished the season in second place in the AL Central last year, winning 83, but with nearly a month left in the season, they have already lost 88. While they weren’t the first team eliminated from the divisional races (the Braves, Brewers, and Reds all got knocked out earlier), their sad .367 winning percentage is the worst in baseball.
Preseason Prediction: Given that the extremes I’ve postulated are between 78 and 88 wins, anywhere in that range could be considered realistic. With the combination of veteran (Mauer and Brian Dozier) and young (Sano and Rosario) hitters, the Twins won’t hurt for runs, but their pitching staff pales in comparison to their Central Division competition, particularly the Indians and White Sox. In the end, trying to play too many first basemen at the same time and being financially forced to use lesser pitchers will see them give up more runs than they can counter. Expect between 78 and 83 wins and a finish somewhere in the middle of the division, just outside of the playoff hunt. (Joseph Coblitz, March 31)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 13: Brian Dozier #2 of the Minnesota Twins hits a solo home run against the Kansas City Royals during the sixth inning of the game on August 13, 2016 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
What Went Right: Of late, Brian Dozier has been going really right for the Twins. He was an All-Star in 2015 and received votes for the AL MVP, which he probably will duplicate this year after hitting .320/.379/.713 from June 7th on with 33 home runs and 70 RBI. There wasn’t much else to get excited about offensively, but Ervin Santana finally earned part of his massive deal that will continue on for the next two years at $13.5 million per year.
What Went Wrong: The Twins were literally the worst team in baseball at preventing runs this year, both because their starting pitching was terrible and because their defense was just about the worst in baseball (27th at 32.5 runs allowed above average according to Fangraphs). Going into the season, defense was a worry for the Twins, as they had three players who should have been explicitly used at DH in the field to start the year in Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, and Byung-Ho Park. While Park ended up being league average at first, Mauer, Sano and late addition Robbie Grossman were awful defensively and even their better defenders, like Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana, were below league average at their primary positions.
On the starting rotation, pretty much everything except Santana went wrong. Only three other pitchers have surpassed 100 innings to this point, and every starter not named “Ervin Santana” has an ERA above 5.00 for the season. This includes the Twins’ top pitching prospect, Jose Berrios, who started 10 games and had an ERA of 9.21, and the incumbent ace Phil Hughes, who made only 11 starts with a 5.95 ERA. While it hurt that so many of their pitchers have been injured this year, including Hughes, whose season ended on July 7th thanks to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, none of them were pitching particularly well when they hit the DL.
Most Surprising Player: They didn’t have too many leads to hold, but Brandon Kintzler did a tremendous job out of the bullpen late in games for the Twins. Kevin Jepsen started the season as the Twins closer, but was released after a 6.16 ERA and four blown saves in his first 30.2 innings pitched this year. Kintzler replaced him and has been a complete surprise, converting 13 of 15 save opportunities at the age of 31. This is his first season with an ERA below 3.20 and it’s a strong 2.91 right now in 46.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and just six walks.
He will be a free agent after 2017, so the Twins may be best suited to try and trade him during the offseason (relievers that come out of nowhere often times return their quickly and the market for late inning relievers is booming right now), but he has at least helped bring some stability to the Twins in the late innings during the second half of the season.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 24: Miguel Sano #22 of the Minnesota Twins reacts to striking out against the Detroit Tigers during the sixth inning of the game on August 24, 2016 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Tigers defeated the Twins 9-4. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: Sano was a disappointment after contending for the Rookie of the Year last year, but he still hit for power with a low average and poor defense as he was expected to. The Twins thought they had a ringer for another Rookie of the Year contender this year, however, in Park and it didn’t come even close.
The Twins got the 30-year old KBO veteran for what seemed like a steal in December, a four-year, $12 milliondeal. After hitting nine home runs in his first 29 games and batting .257/.342/.581 through May 15th, MLB pitchers figured out Park and he ended up batting just .191/.275/.409 when he was sent to AAA on July 1st. He had just two hits in his last 11 games (38 at bats) and is currently on the Rochester Red Wings DL with right wrist tendinitis. At the moment, the Twins have to be extremely thankful that they did get Park for such a small deal.
The Future: Most of the Twins lineup should be back in Minnesota next year as they are generally young players early in their team control years, but the question remains whether that is a good thing. During the season, they moved Oswaldo Arcia and needed to include former top pitching prospect Alex Meyer in the salary dump that was the Ricky Nolasco trade.
Many of the young players who stayed and had previously shown promise in 2015 took major steps back this year. If the Twins are ever going to open a window for contention with this group, these young players like Sano, Eddie Rosario, Kyle Gibson, and Tyler Duffey will have to be at the center of that. The 2016 additions, Max Kepler, Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Park, will be huge in the future as well, but at the moment, there is little to be excited about in Minneapolis.
