Marred in the middle of a franchise-record 17 game losing streak, the hapless Seattle Mariners are looking all over the place for answers but continue to find nothing in their search for a victory, having being held without a win since July 5th. But while the entire team has been in the epitome of baseball nadir, a certain somebody is having a season unlike any other in his entire professional career, one that will have him on the way to Cooperstown when his career is over.
Ichiro’s career has been as steady as can be. He won both the American League MVP and the American League Rookie of the Year in his first season in America back in 2001, and that started off a 10 year stretch as one of the best players in baseball. He accumulated 55 WAR in that stretch by Baseball Reference numbers, 52.8 WAR by FanGraphs numbers, and 49.1 WARP by Baseball Prospectus. Average that all out, and you get 52.3, a number which puts him in elite company for the best players in baseball over that stretch.
But his 2011 season has seen him fall off a cliff. He has played under replacement level by all WAR metrics and is having the worst season of his professional career with a .266/.311/.315 slash line coming into Wednesday. This is a guy who has hit .327/.372/.423 over the course of his career. Yes that is his SLUGGING PERCENTAGE being lower than his CAREER BATTING AVERAGE. His defense is also down, with a UZR score of -8.4 when he was a ridiculous 125.3 coming into the year. He still has value on the basepaths, but this is not what the Mariners have gotten used to when it comes to the greatest Japanese baseball import of all time. So why is it happening?
Batted ball data is a major indicator of Ichiro’s success. His unique batting stance and running ability has allowed him to make infield hits out of what look to be routine ground balls. Over the years, he’s had ridiculous infield hit rates, averaging 12.8% over his career and reaching over that mark in 7 of his 10 seasons. Interestingly enough, his line drive rate has relatively stayed in line: 20.2% for his career, but the last three seasons has seen that rate dip below that mark. Excluding his 2005 season where he looked to show off that he had power (10.1% HR rate), his fly ball rate has stayed pretty much the same without much fluxuation (23.8% for his career). He also has a BABIP of .356 for his career, which can be attributed to his high infield hit rate and his high line drive rate.
This season? His rates are all below where he wants them to be. 19.2 % line drive rate. His ground ball rate at 59.6% is the highest of his career, but he’s not beating nearly enough of them out for hits with an infield hit rate of 9.7% (22 total on the season, on course for 35, third lowest of his career), the second lowest rate of his career (the aforementioned 2005 season saw him hit at a 9.5% rate). With only one home run this season, it has killed his home rate, which normally sits in the 4-8% range, peaking above 10% in that 2005 season. But with that has come a pop fly rate of 16%, the highest of his career. His .288 BABIP related to his raw batting average falls in line with his career, too, which means that this isn’t some fluke of a season: This is a true falling out.
It’s interesting to see that over the course of his career, if something had gone wrong for Ichiro in one area, he picked it up in others, whether it was hitting more line drives, hitting more home runs, upped the defense or baserunning, etc. This year, it’s down all across the board. He’s playing subpar defensively while not offering anything of note on the offensive side of the spectrum outside of being an above average baserunner. All signs point to him not being his usual speedy self (which is obviously understandable at age 37), but considering his batting prowess, he should still be able to make up for it in other areas like normal.
He has one more season on his current contract and will be owed about $23 million from now until the end of it. The Mariners are obviously in for the duration of the contract, but it will be very interesting to see what is done if Ichiro can’t bounce back next year. Would the Mariners give Ichiro one last chance to prove himself like they did with Griffey Junior? Will Ichiro bow out if he doesn’t have a good 2012? Considering their current situation as one of the worst offenses in baseball history, let alone baseball, the Mariners are in an unenviable position. Ichiro having a good season this year might have led them to consider trading him in the last year of his contract with a chance to rebuild, but unfortunately, it looks like they will have to wait this out and hope that Ichiro bows out with the glory that he brought Mariners fans over the last decade.
