If this keeps up, the city of Cleveland is going to have to completely embrace a new identity. After the Cavaliers came back from three games to one in the NBA Finals, the city felt it couldn’t get much higher, but the Indians are showing that Cleveland sports isn’t done yet.
After playing .500 ball through May 15th, the Indians pulled into first on May 28th for a day, then for a longer stretch on June 4th. They survived a tough 4-6 road trip to the West Coast and since, have done a lot more than survive. Starting with a homestand against Chicago and Tampa Bay, the Indians won nine games in a row, sweeping not just the homestand, but every home game in June. Keeping things going on the road, the Tribe pushed the winning streak to nine games with a three game sweep of Detroit ending Sunday, advancing their season record to 44-30 and their lead in the Central to five games.
Not only have the Indians been winning (they won nine in a row against Detroit individually in addition to their overall nine game streak), they have been destroying all comers. In the current winning streak, they have outscored their opponents 60-19, pushing their season run differential to an AL best +81. While it may be too soon to say they should be considered the top team in the AL, considering the Rangers and their 49 wins, what it isn’t too soon to say is that they may have the easiest path to the Postseason.
Currently, FanGraphs’ playoff odds give Cleveland a 85.7% chance at winning the division and 91.8% chance at making the Postseason in any fashion, the second best in baseball behind only the Cubs, and the best in the AL. The Rangers have the more impressive divisional lead at ten games, but Houston has been playing considerably better of late and should still be considered a legitimate contender for the division. In the AL Central, the Tribe has taken care of their contenders, beyond the recent sweeps of Chicago and Detroit to the point of winning 24 of 34 on the season. In addition, they still have 13 games left with the worst team in baseball, the Minnesota Twins and they should be able to perform a little better in those games then they did in their first two series against Minnesota, when they went 2-4.
The next question is, what are the chances the Indians can continue a run of this kind of dominance? While they are unlikely to continue outscoring their opponents 3-1, winning near 60% of their games for the rest of the year shouldn’t be out of the question. The Indians are the best team in the AL in total runs allowed (280), total ERA, and starter ERA, and are second in FIP, third in defensive runs saved, and fifth in bullpen ERA. Everyone knew Cleveland had a dangerous rotation coming into the season with Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, and Carlos Carrasco, and a primary strategy over the past year has been to improve the defense behind them so their starts wouldn’t go wasted.
The addition of Francisco Lindor last year turned the defense around nearly by itself while Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, and Juan Uribe have been a step up over Carlos Santana, Michael Bourn, and Lonnie Chisenhall as well. Because the Indians’ run prevention has been based on this defensive improvement and starting pitchers performing to their expectations, there is little reason to expect a major setback. If anything, Carrasco and Kluber are playing below their peak level and could improve as the season goes on.
Overall, Carrasco has an impressive 2.73 ERA, but that includes three less than spectacular starts (nine ER in 17.2 IP) after returning from a hamstring injury. In his last two starts, he looked more like the Carrasco of last year, holding the White Sox to two in 7.1 innings and shutting out Detroit with a complete game on Saturday. Given his ability, there’s little reason to think that Carrasco’s recent success shouldn’t continue and in the end, his month off due to injury could turn out to be a good thing as he will be fresh in October should things stay the way they are.
What is less likely to continue is the Indians’ offensive performance. While the bulk of the lineup is playing at expectations, there are a few players, namely Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Juan Uribe, who have been performing well beyond in recent days. While this could continue, it shouldn’t be surprising that the Indians are looking into the trade market to improve upon their outfield and possibly third base. Of course, the easiest solution would be the return of Michael Brantley, but the Indians’ top hitter over the past few years remains on the disabled list with no date set for return.
With or without Brantley, the Indians are finally playing the way they’ve be hoping for ever since Terry Francona signed on as manager for the 2013 season. After losing the one game Wild Card playoff that year, they learned the importance of winning the division and if things continue the way they are going right now, they are set to do just that.
