The combination of the extra Wild Card (which has now been around long enough we should probably just get used to it) and the extreme parity in the American League looks to have lead to a second straight season where everyone thinks they’re a contender.
Nearly three months into the season, only one team in the AL is more than 10 games out of a playoff spot compared to two in the NL and six in the Majors on this date in 2011, the last season without the second Wild Card. In the divisional races, which are the primary focus of any team given the high risk of winning the Wild Card game, only four teams are legitimately out of it: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Oakland, and Los Angeles.
Actually, the West isn’t all that close. Since June 3rd, the Rangers have rattled off a 16-4 stretch, turning a one game advantage over the Mariners into a ten game lead above the Astros. During this stretch, Houston has been pretty solid on their own, making up seven games on Seattle and even now, both teams are within four games of a Wild Card.
Because teams like those in the West are still competing actively for a Wild Card, they are highly unlikely to give up the farm this year and teams on the rise, like the White Sox or Astros, even less so. A team on the outskirts of contention might be convinced to trade off a big piece, but it is less likely for a team that believes they will be competing next year and the years after that. In fact, it’s possible these teams will be even more aggressive, looking to add players not just for this season, but then next as well.
Last year, this was the case as the Rangers made one of the biggest deals at the deadline despite being seven games back in the West in third place. Adding Cole Hamels, who is guaranteed through 2018 with an option for 2019, came at a large cost, but he was part of the reason they came back to win the division last year and is a huge part of the reason they are in first now as he’s posting his best season since his 2011 All-Star campaign. After this success, we could see even more borderline teams spend on a greater level than those who are leading the divisions and already thinking about the playoffs.
Unfortunately for the Twins, who at 16 games out are the most dismal of AL teams, the reason for their overall struggles as a team directly coincides with what they have to peddle this trade season. Their unsustainable late season run in 2015 lead Minnesota to believe they were real contenders this year and they kept the few players who are running out of team control, namely Kevin Jepsen and Trevor Plouffe. Jepsen’s stock was never higher than in the 2015 offseason, but the Twins held on to the reliever who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Now, he’s boasting a 6.28 ERA, 6.09 FIP, and an unimpressive 6.6 K/9 that make him nearly untradeable.
Plouffe isn’t a free agent until after 2017, but has also been having a down season, batting .250/.273/.380 in 53 games. Eduardo Nunez is also a free agent after 2017, but has actually been playing well and has played in almost every game for the Twins this year. He could garner some interest, but the Twins would certainly place a higher price tag on the infielder.
Despite being 16 games back in their own division, the Angels have quite a few more players of value who are nearing the end of their deals. C.J. Wilson could be the biggest piece they are looking to move, with about $10M still owed on his contract before becoming a free agent at the end of the season. Of course, Wilson hasn’t pitched an inning this year and his value is close to nil. The Halos have already moved one former starter in Kyle Kubitza, and could conceivably blow things up on a large scale as the season continues.
Despite one of the highest payrolls in baseball, the Angels have underperformed for the past two seasons after winning the division in 2014 and have a lot of top heavy contracts they may be looking to offload. In addition to Wilson, Jered Weaver is in the final year of his deal, but while he is owed about the same amount, he doesn’t come with the ability to get batters out. Joe Smith and Fernando Salas are on more team friendly deals as relievers, and given that every team could use bullpen help, the fact that they haven’t been incredible this year shouldn’t stop them from being moved.
The recently signed Tim Lincecum is also a free agent at the end of the year and, despite just joining the team, he could be worth more on the market than he is to the team. One last speculative option would be for the Angels to try to move the albatross that is Albert Pujols. There’s little question that they highly regret the signing that will cost them $140M through 2021 and while he has struggled this year, batting a career low .230, he still has power and it is possible a less advanced or extremely rich team could be tricked into taking on that deal.
The Rays lost their biggest free agent to be and potential trade piece in Steve Pearce when he was injured recently, and given that they are still a team on the rise, it’s hard to imagine them blowing things up. The Athletics, on the other hand, are always game for a trade and while no one is guaranteed money after 2018, the primary targets will likely be Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. Both are free agents at the end of the season and both could potentially be the A’s only All-Star this year depending on whether Ned Yost prefers another starter or an outfielder (it’s going to be Hill).
The A’s traded a surprisingly successful left handed starter last season (Scott Kazmir) and returned a decent haul of baseball’s #66 prospect, Jacob Nottingham, and starter Daniel Mengden, who has looked good in three starts this year for Oakland. On the other side, Kazmir struggled for Houston, then still managed to work a three year, $48M deal with the Dodgers that they are already regretting. Given the results, opposing teams may be less willing to overspend for Hill, but it would again be the right move for Oakland.
While there aren’t many teams in the AL looking to sell, those teams looking to buy will still have plenty of options in the senior circuit. We could very well see a large wave of talent coming from the AL to the NL this summer simply because there are so many teams who believe they are contenders still. The White Sox already tried to shore up their rotation this way and while it wasn’t successful, that won’t keep others from trying. No AL team is completely comfortable with their current set-up so yet again expect to see a sellers market and quite a few deals coming down the pipe in the coming weeks.
