On Monday night, the Washington Nationals shocked the baseball world by signing Stephen Strasburg to a seven-year, $175 million contract extension. It wasn’t the size of the extension that shocked people — it was the fact that Strasburg, a Scott Boras client, even signed the extension before reaching free agency. And while the team most immediately affected by the deal is Washington, the extension will send ripples throughout MLB because of the damage it will do to this winter’s free agent market.
Strasburg was set to be the best pitcher on the market this winter, head-and-shoulders above the competition. You could probably also argue that he was going to be the best player, period, on the market. His only real competition was Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Gomez, and Matt Wieters. The class of position players that would have been competing against Strasburg for maximum dollars isn’t exactly loaded with All-Stars and future Hall of Famers.
But the class of starting pitchers pales in comparison to the class of position players, and that’s where Strasburg’s extension really will have the biggest impact. With Strasburg leaving the free agent market, the top 10 starting pitchers set to be available this winter are the following: Clay Buchholz, Andrew Cashner, Bartolo Colon, Jorge De La Rosa, R.A. Dickey, Doug Fister, Rich Hill, Mat Latos, Jake Peavy, and Jered Weaver.
Who in that class would you be comfortable giving a contract of more than two years? Maybe Cashner, or Latos if he doesn’t turn into a pumpkin? All of those pitchers have more significant issues than Strasburg’s Tommy John surgery, be it a Tommy John of their own, other injury issues, ineffectiveness, a lack of durability, or age.
Strasburg falling off the market immediately benefits two players if they stay healthy: Scott Kazmir of the Dodgers, and James Shields of the Padres. Both players have an opt-out clause after this season, and both can get more than the two years remaining on their current contracts in this free agent market if their performance doesn’t fall off.
Of course, that’s easier said than done. Kazmir has a 5.54 ERA in seven starts this season, while Shields has a more respectable 3.60 ERA despite a career-worst walk rate and his worst strikeout rate since 2008.
Three starters have mutual options for next year, but only one member of the trio is poised to cash in. Charlie Morton’s season is over after just four starts following a torn hamstring. Kris Medlen has a 6.85 ERA in five starts for the Royals, and has walked nearly as many batters (17) as he’s struck out (18).
On the other hand, Medlen’s Royals teammate Edinson Volquez is shining, pitching to a 3.89 ERA in seven starts. Volquez will be 33 in July and has looked like a different pitcher since joining the Pirates before the 2014 season, which could allow him to cash in this winter.
WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 22: Starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez #47 of the Washington Nationals works the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Nationals Park on April 22, 2016 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Oddly, Strasburg’s Nationals teammate Gio Gonzalez also may be a winner out of this extension. Washington has a relatively affordable $12 million option on Gonzalez for the 2017 season, and while they could easily exercise it, the team could also let Gonzalez walk since they have four viable major league starters in Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Joe Ross and Tanner Roark, along with stud prospect Lucas Giolito in AA.
It’s obviously not a guarantee, nor even a likely outcome, but Gonzalez falling into the lap of this free agent class would be an absolute boon for him and the teams in need of starting pitching.
With a weak free agent market, where will teams in need of starting pitching turn? Naturally, the trade market will be boisterous this offseason, though perhaps not as much in recent years, due to the crush of teams in the American League and most of the National League’s lesser teams already selling off most of their assets. A few pitchers with control remaining and/or long-term contracts could be popular names in either the summer or the offseason, including Sonny Gray of the A’s and Julio Teheran of the Braves.
CHICAGO, IL – APRIL 21: Starting pitcher Jered Weaver #36 of the Los Angeles Angels delivers the ball against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field on April 21, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
The biggest losers of Strasburg re-signing in Washington are probably the Angels. With Garrett Richards staring Tommy John surgery in the face and the possibility also on the table for Andrew Heaney, their rotation was already in bad shape.
But this winter, both Weaver and the currently injured C.J. Wilson will be free agents, and though neither pitcher will command a contract the size of the ones they previously signed, both will receive widespread interest this winter.
In fact, without Strasburg around, interest for those two will likely pick up as a result, and the Angels will need to pony up more money than expected to keep one or both of them. They’re also looking at the prospect of not being able to sign an ace-level starter this offseason, and with their lack of a strong farm system, they won’t be able to trade for one either.
And that’s where we stand, six months from the start of free agency. The top pitcher won’t be available and a vacuum has opened up to replace him. Maybe someone like Latos has a dominant year and increases his value to the $100 million level. Maybe Juan Nicasio’s rebirth in Pittsburgh continues, and he’s able to turn that into a $30 million guarantee. Maybe Andrew Cashner has a fully healthy, dominant year and cashes in (no pun intended).
There’s a lot that can still happen with the pitching market so many months out, but one thing is for sure: The Nationals just threw a rather large monkey wrench into the proceedings.
