Last year's NL Cy Young award winner is in the American League. The two pitchers who won the three awards from 2008-2010 are still around, but appear to be shells of their former selves. In fact, out of all of the pitchers in the National League, the only two former Cy Young winners that appear like they'll be able to make a substantial push for the award in 2013 are Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee (and that's only if you're a big fan of Lee). What does that tell us? Well…this race is wide open. Our staff identified three favorites for the award though: Kershaw, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg.
Clayton Kershaw has been a monster during his career in the majors. He just turned 25 this March, and has already thrown 944 innings, struck out 974 hitters, posted a 2.79 ERA, and accumulated 22.3 fWAR. By the end of this season, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for Kershaw to have 1150 innings pitched, 1200 strikeouts, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 30.0 fWAR…at age 25. That's not just one of the best pitchers in baseball, that's one of the best pitchers of his age of all-time. Adding a second Cy Young award to his trophy case is something that could propel him to a record-breaking contract, and you know the Dodgers would be willing to pay that. But whenever a pitcher is this successful this young, all you need to do is look at Tim Lincecum's career and how it's come off the rails in recent years after an initial period of dominance.
Matt Cain was the forgotten guy on the Giants staff due to Lincecum's dominance, but Cain has come into his own over the last two years while Lincecum has struggled. Cain isn't the sexiest pitcher on the planet, but the man has put together six straight 200 inning seasons, and has had an ERA under 3.00 in three of the last four years. The thing about Cain is that he never posts the big strikeout numbers that voters love, and that the Giants relatively punchless offense leads to a lot of low scoring games that tends to rob Cain of wins. But a 20-win season along with another ERA under 3.00 would definitely put Cain in the conversation, especially if the Giants continue to roll over the NL West.
Stephen Strasburg is going to get a lot of love this year, and if he throws 200 innings, the man might be a lock to win the award. He's struck out 313 while walking only 67 in 251 1/3 career innings with an unhittable arsenal that results in some of the highest whiff rates in baseball. Combine that with his place in the rotation of a team that is projected to be one of the best in baseball, and you've got the makings of a potential superstar that could be winning awards for years to come. But like always with Strasburg, health is a question. He had Tommy John surgery in 2010, missed most of 2011, and was shut down after less than 160 innings in 2012. The gloves are apparently going to be off for him this year in Washington, and he's probably the odds on favorite to win if he has a full campaign as his usual dominant self.
Another name that is popping up a lot as a Cy Young contender is Cole Hamels of the Phillies. Hamels is the youngest and healthiest of Philadelphia's big three, and it looks like 2013 will be his time to shine. The left-hander is coming off of the two best seasons of his career, and 2013 could be his time to break out of the shadow of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in a big way. But projections for the Phillies are all across the board, and that could hurt Hamels in both the win column and in public perception of his team, two things that voters crave when voting for this award.
Two names out of the NL Central that could get consideration are Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright. Cueto had the best year of his career in 2012, finally staying healthy and putting it all together for a full season. If the 27-year old continues to improve, he could easily collect the Cy Young award, especially with how fantastic the Reds offense and bullpen is. I don't think a lot of wins will be getting away from Cueto, just like they didn't last year. As for Wainwright, he missed all of 2011 following Tommy John surgery, and the Cardinals unleashed him on the league with a vengeance last year. He nearly hit 200 innings for the fourth time in his career, posted a 3.54 strikeout to walk ratio that was the second-best mark of his career, and all of that came with him struggling in the first half of the season. With a little better luck and defense behind him in 2013, a full-strength Wainwright will see his 3.90 ERA drop this season and with more innings pitched, the 31-year old will be a strong contender for the Cy.
Finally, a dark horse candidate…I'm not sure how much of a dark horse Gio Gonzalez is considering he finished third in the voting last year, but Strasburg is getting most of the attention this offseason. Gonzalez had a career year in 2012, boosting his strikeout rate and cutting his walk rate for the third straight year. Yeah, Strasburg is great and all, but Gonzalez was the real ace on the Nationals staff last year, and that could pay huge dividends for him in 2013.
