The Toronto Blue Jays entered 2016 with one of the most potent returning lineups in all of baseball. The heart of the order remains in great shape with Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Bautista, but one glaring weak spot remains – at the top of the order.
After Tulowitzki handled the leadoff duties towards the end of 2015, manager John Gibbons decided to enter this season with a change. Outfielder Kevin Pillar took over the spot and so far, it’s gone as poorly as one might guess. Pillar has struggled in a small sample size of six games with just five hits and no walks in 27 plate appearances, scoring just two runs.
The choice for Pillar to hit atop the lineup was a curious one. The Blue Jays had a bunch of great hitters, but none that fit the typical get on-base + speed, leadoff mold (outside of Dalton Pompey, who didn’t make the team out of camp). Pillar had a solid 2015 at the plate, but his output didn’t scream leadoff hitter. Pillar brought nice speed (25 steals) and made contact enough (85 strikeouts in 628 PA’s), but got on base at a paltry rate (.278 AVG/.314 OBP). The 27-year-old loved to swing at the expense of taking walks, posting the fifth-lowest BB% (4.3) in the AL.
Pillar told the Toronto Star before spring training playing atop the lineup would give him better pitches to see.
“I promise you, with Josh hitting behind me, if he’s in the two-hole I’ll get some better pitches to hit,” Pillar said. “The walks will come . . . We always talk about walks, and yeah walks are going to happen. But I’m out there to hit. If I get a good pitch, I’m not going to sit around and try to walk.
That’s not exactly a mentality you want from your leadoff hitter. Pillar is there for his speed, not his hitting skills. He topped out at 12 home runs, 31 doubles, and 76 runs last year – numbers he’d be happy to repeat.
TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 10: Kevin Pillar #11 of the Toronto Blue Jays hits a single in the first inning during MLB game action against the Boston Red Sox on April 10, 2016 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
The Blue Jays probably saw Pillar’s speed as an asset at the top of the lineup. His surprising stolen base production and his Gold Glove-caliber play in the outfield were a mirage for his offensive impact. While he’s capable at the plate, and his speed is fine and dandy, Pillar’s inability to reach base is concerning.
The role is even more confusing when you realize out of a lineup which features so many great hitters, it’s Pillar who’s going to draw the most at-bats. Gibbons is effectively taking the bat out of more talented hitters’ hands. That’s bad. Pillar is an ideal 7-8-9 hitter, not someone who should be taking 600+ at-bats.
Toronto is going to score runs regardless and honestly if any team can get away with having a dud-hitter at the top of the lineup, it’s them. But, the Blue Jays shouldn’t be complacent with Pillar. Gibbons had the right idea when he had Tulowitzki hit atop the lineup for the team’s magical stretch last season. Despite Tulowitzki only hitting .227 during his 26 games as a leadoff hitter, he still managed a better OBP (.325) than Pillar, hit four homers, and scored 25 runs. Even in a cold stretch, Tulowitzki was a much better option.
At the end of the day, if you can give your best hitters the most at-bats, you do that, regardless of convention. Pillar doesn’t get on base enough to justify hitting at the top spot. He’s simply not good enough. That’s not to say he shouldn’t be in the lineup (he should be), but Pillar’s wildly miscast batting leadoff.
