The Mets have officially opened up the 2011 trade market, sending one of biggest names rumored to be available, Francisco Rodriguez, to the Brewers. While GM Sandy Alderson claims that the trade will not affect the organization’s attempt to contend this season, it certainly never helps to trade away a significant piece of the roster. That being said, the Mets bullpen should still have life without K-Rod. Leading the restructured pen is 26-year-old Bobby Parnell, who has a mid-to-upper 90’s heater and 30 strikeouts to nine walks in 24.2 innings this season. He should be the closer of the present and future, but we’ll see how that situation shapes up for the rest of July.
Parnell is just one of the reasons that the Mets should continue to sell this season and look to contend in 2012.
After a rough start to the year, the Mets have managed to climb back into the playoff conversation. Currently one game over .500, they have only a couple of weeks to make some big decisions. They’re 11 games out of first in the NL East and 7.5 games out of the Wild Card race. Neither margin is exactly encouraging. Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds report gives the Mets a 1.9 percent chance of making the post season.
Even with K-Rod being dealt, the Mets still have some serious trade chips to consider given their circumstance. Carlos Beltran, whose mega-contract is finally up after the season, has been the main subject of trade rumors of late. Given his all-star status and no-strings-attached contract, teams should be willing to pay a decent price for a couple months of his production. Unlike the situation with Jose Reyes, the Mets are extremely unlikely to even consider offering Beltran a contract this offseason, so any decent prospect they could get in return would help what has been a lackluster farm system this season. The Mets could also look to capitalize on the fact that reliever Jason Isringhausen has a 3.14 ERA despite a poor 1.6 K/BB rate and 1.3 HR/9.
The bottom line here is that the Mets honestly don’t have a great shot to make the playoffs this season. However, they have already started to clear money for next season and have some extremely valuable players returning either at some point this season or before the start of 2012. Three major components, David Wright, Johan Santana and Ike Davis are all currently on the DL. Add those three players back into the mix in 2012 and it’s like signing three major free agents without the competition of other teams bidding for their services. Alderson has hinted that he’d like to re-sign Jose Reyes and the K-Rod trade certainly cleared up some money to do so. If the Mets do in fact retain Reyes’ services, they’d have a formidable top-of-the-order once again. If Jason Bay can somehow find at least a small sector of the talent that earned him a 4yr/$66M contract, the lineup could go from good to one of the best in the National League.
As for the departure of Carlos Beltran, the right field free agent market is actually decent, albeit uninspiring. The Mets could look at players like Lance Berkman, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Josh Willngham or Johnny Damon.
The offense is one thing, but the key to the Mets’ 2012 success could stem from what has become a very solid starting rotation. While Mike Pelfrey isn’t anything close to a top-of-the-rotation starter, he’s certainly a serviceable fourth or fifth starter. Both Jonathon Niese (3.71 career xFIP) and R.A. Dickey (3.80 xFIP since joining the Mets) are middle-of-the-rotation gold given their production and low cost. Add on top of that Johan Santana, who, even if he doesn’t come back as the pitcher of old, still has a very good chance to be a top-of-the-rotation presence next season. The Mets could also look to bring back Chris Capuano (3.80 xFIP in his last 168.2 innings) at a fairly low cost, which would give them a solid rotation on paper as well as depth with pitchers like Dillon Gee, who emerged out of nowhere, but has regressed of late as his peripherals suggested he would. Prospect Jenrry Mejia could also help at some point once he returns from Tommy John surgery and another top prospect, Matt Harvey, may even get his own shot at a rotation spot in spring training of next year. This season, Harvey dominated high-A to the tune of a 2.66 FIP and 3.8 K/BB rate and has 14 strikeouts to four walks since being promoted to double-A.
With the potential of significant pitching depth and top-end lineup, the Mets look to have just as good a shot as any to make the playoffs next season…on paper, at least.
Despite all the turmoil that has surrounded the Mets for the past couple of seasons, there is certainly room for optimism in the future. While the rest of 2011 may not be that future, this team is set up to succeed for the next couple of years if they can remain relatively healthy. In my opinion, that should be their goal: Look to compete in 2012 and 2013 while trying to build a farm system that can fill in where needed by 2014 when David Wright, Johan Santana and Jason Bay’s contracts could come off the books.
The Mets should sell what they can this season. They won’t have to wait long before they’re buyers once again.
