The biggest free agent signing to this point in the season happened yesterday and it was a big one.
Sources: Jordan Zimmermann’s deal with #Tigers expected to be 5 years and around $110 million. @JonHeymanCBS first reported agreement.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 29, 2015
Well that escalated quickly. This is not to take anything away from Zimmermann, who has averaged 3.9 WAR per year since 2011, but if a last place team is willing to give a mid-level starter more than $20M per season, it may have set the market for the rest of the similar starters this off-season. [Warning: if you don’t like WAR, that’s great, but I did use it a lot in the article as it’s the easiest way to compare multiple players across multiple stats. You are more than welcome to look up whatever stats you do like about the pitchers named below.]
Using Clayton Kershaw as the example for best pitcher in baseball, the Dodgers’ ace has averaged a 6.5 WAR each year since 2009 and 7.6 over the last three and fairly signed the most massive extension in baseball history worth $208.4M from 2015 through 2020, or $34.7M per year. This should be the number that sets the market for free agents more than anything. Considering his extremely consistent play and fairly even contract distribution, a 28 year old Kershaw should be paid about $4.6M per win added next season.
Zimmermann and the Tigers have upped that standard to $5.6M per win added, but where Kershaw will be 28 next year, Zimmermann will be 30 and while he has pitched five years at a decent level, Kershaw has five consecutive All-Star selections, three Cy Youngs, an MVP and has thrown more than 200 innings in five of six years (his other finished just below at 198). WAR shouldn’t be the only number used in pricing pitchers, but it does provide a nice base and if any pitcher deserved to be paid more per win it’s Kershaw, who brings extra value and notoriety. Instead, it’s Zimmermann who has raised the bar.
Actually, the bar may have been bumped up before him. Brett Anderson is like Kershaw in that he will be 28 in 2016 and pitched for the Dodgers last year, but there the similarities end. He has never pitched 200 innings in a season and although he did throw 180 last year, he only threw 206.1 combined from 2011 though 2015. Despite this, Anderson was given and accepted a qualifying offer this year, giving him a 2016 salary of $15.8M for 2016 with LA equating to $9.29M per extra win based on his 2015 value or $14.4M per win based on his career average WAR of 1.1. If he remains healthy, he should be able to drop that number closer to $7M, but he’s definitely not half the pitcher Kershaw is.
A final example of this extreme inflation in starting pitcher salaries is Marco Estrada who has only had one exceptional season, his last, and used that to sign onto a two year, $26M deal with Toronto. This equates to $7.2M per win added based on his 2015 WAR, but $16.25M based on his career.
This should be great news for the remaining starters on the market and there are quite a few. Looking beyond the top guys like Johnny Cueto, David Price, Zack Greinke, Jeff Samardzija and Yovani Gallardo, who will get paid on another level without a doubt, there are still ten starters on the market who had a decent season last year (WAR above 1.0) and another 14 looking for a deal of some kind. While most of those final 14 would usually be expected to take a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, the fact that Bud Norris, who has never had an ERA below 3.50 in a season or pitched 200 innings in a season or held a WAR above 2.0 got a one year, $2.5M deal with the non-contending Braves shows that even those of the least value can still get guaranteed money.
In this low group are reclamation projects, like Tim Lincecum, Gavin Floyd, Justin Masterson, and Mat Latos, and some who should be expected to continue playing at this low level, like Chris Capuano, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ian Kennedy. Of those 14 who were largely injured and ineffective in 2015, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see more than a couple command deals above $5M at least for a one year deal.
If there is a sensible part of this overspending, it is that teams to this point seem to be keeping risk to a minimum with short deals. While the top five mentioned earlier could get lengthy deals, the mid to low level hurlers seem to be signing for shorter terms. Of the five who signed already (not including Zimmermann), only J.A. Happ signed for more than two years and he only got $12M per year or $9.2M per win added based on his career since becoming a full time starter in 2009. Based on his time in Pittsburgh last year, that was a great deal, but he made 2/3rds of his starts in Seattle and considering that, it’s another extremely questionable signing by Toronto.
Looking back at the ten in the middle, there is a wide range of pitchers with Mike Leake being the youngest at 28 and Bartolo Colon the oldest at 43. Of course the younger pitchers should be expected to get longer deals, but many of the more consistent pitchers, like Scott Kazmir, Mark Buehrle, John Lackey, and Hisashi Iwakuma, are all in their mid-30’s already. If a team wants to add a starter for the next year or two and wants to avoid the hefty price tags of the top 30-year olds like Price, Cueto, Gallardo, and even Wei-Yin Chen, they will have to jump into the equally expensive in talent trade market or over spend for one of these middle-aged pitchers.
Iwakuma is possibly one of the next biggest gets in this middle level as he has thrown more than 125 innings each year in his career with an ERA below 3.55 and a WAR at 2.0 or above each year. Last year it was at 2.4 and basing his dollar value off Kluber, he would be expected to get a deal around $24M across two seasons, incredibly the exact amount that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has stated (according to Jon Heyman) that the Mariners would be willing to pay him to bring him back. Given his age and limited MLB experience, this should be a fair deal, but this is free agency in baseball.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors expects Iwakuma to get paid $45M over three years and given what we have seen so far and the fact that he actually low balled the per year salary of Zimmermann (he predicted $126M over six years), it wouldn’t be a surprise. Maybe a team will meet Iwakuma in the middle with a larger deal over two years, but $15M per year for a 35 year old pitcher coming off a 2.4 WAR season doesn’t seem so crazy anymore.
