Approximately a week after putting up their “Open for Business” sign, the Cincinnati Reds are still waiting to begin what appears to be an offseason fire sale. Perhaps the reason the sell-off hasn’t gotten started is because the player that was expected to get the transactions rolling hasn’t yet been dealt. And from what it sounds like, the Reds want to trade closer Aroldis Chapman as soon as possible.
Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans talked to Reds president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty, who made it clear that the front office is ready to make a deal.
“We’ve been talking to clubs, but I don’t think there’s anything that’s close,” Jocketty told Rosecrans. “Hopefully we get something done with somebody before the Winter Meetings. We’d like to get moving on some things.”
From the Reds’ standpoint, the urgency to trade Chapman before MLB’s Winter Meetings begin Dec. 7 in Nashville is understandable. Two teams that presumably had interest in arguably baseball’s best closer. The Red Sox traded for Craig Kimbrel, giving four prospects to the Padres in the process. And the Tigers acquired Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers, dealing far less than it would have taken to get Chapman.
With the haul that San Diego received in exchange for Kimbrel, you can see why Jocketty is eager to trade Chapman. However, it’s unlikely that the Reds will be able to yield the same return because Chapman has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining and can become a free agent after the 2016 season. Kimbrel was already under contract through 2017 with a club option for 2018. Two, probably three years of team control, was much more expensive, resulting in the high price Boston had to pay.
GOODYEAR, AZ – FEBRUARY 22: President and General Manager Walt Jocketty of the Cincinnati Reds speaks with the media during a press conference at the Cincinnati Reds Development Complex on February 22, 2010 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
Obviously, the Reds will be looking for a great return for Chapman as well. But with only one guaranteed season for any team looking to make a deal, Cincinnati has far less bargaining leverage to work with than the Padres did. Yet that doesn’t mean Jocketty and GM Dick Williams still can’t trade Chapman for a couple of top prospects, at least one of whom is ready for the majors or very close.
But even with Boston and Detroit out of the market for a closer, that still leaves at least five clubs that are still looking to add Chapman and his bazooka arm and 100-plus mph fastball to the back end of their bullpen. The Yankees, Astros and Diamondbacks have been among the teams reportedly interested in getting Chapman, while the Blue Jays and Nationals could also be potential trade partners.
Arizona pursued a deal before last season’s trade deadline, but felt the price was too high at the time. Might that come down now, since Chapman will be a free agent next winter? The D-Backs need an upgrade at closer, but their resources may be better utilized to get a starting pitcher or hitter to help Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup. The Yankees already have Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, but adding Chapman would give them such a strong bullpen that it might reduce the need to get a starting pitcher. Outfielder Brett Gardner also appears expendable at this point, which could make him part of a trade package.
The Nationals were another team that looked into Chapman at the trade deadline and were among the original teams to bid for him out of Cuba. Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen are already on hand, but both players might be dealt away, making the need for a closer obvious. (Storen could go to Cincinnati in a Chapman deal.) Or the Nats could try to make it work with all three and have a potentially dominant bullpen. The Blue Jays are yet another team that already has a closer in Roberto Osuna. But with Chapman, Osuna could be moved to setup man, giving Toronto a strong late-innings corps including Brett Cecil, Liam Hendriks and possibly Aaron Sanchez. That is, unless one of those players is included in a deal for Chapman, which seems entirely possible.
All of this leaves the Astros with perhaps the best fit and greatest need for Chapman. Houston’s 3.27 bullpen ERA ranked fourth among AL clubs last season. But that relief corps wasn’t anywhere near as effective during the postseason, particularly due to the lack of a shutdown reliever. Chapman would be a significant upgrade at closer over Luke Gregerson, who’s probably better suited as a setup man. Will Harris had an outstanding first half, but became much more hittable after the All-Star break. Much the same could be said about Josh Fields and Pat Neshek. (Tony Sipp and Chad Qualls are unlikely to be re-signed.)
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow pursued both Miller and David Robertson last winter, so he clearly sees value in a lights-out closer who provides little opportunity for the opposition to mount a late-inning comeback. Add Chapman to the mix already in place and Houston’s bullpen is suddenly much deeper, sure to be one of the best in the league. And with one of the deepest minor league systems in MLB, we know Luhnow has the prospects to trade for Chapman. In addition, Houston has several young players with major league experience such as Preston Tucker, Jon Singleton and Vincent Velasquez who could be part of an attractive trade package.
Trading for Chapman, who’s better than any closer available in free agency anyway, would also allow the Astros to devote their available dollars to bringing in a top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel and assemble a formidable starting staff to match up with the league’s other playoff contenders.
Naturally, another team could come in as a November or December surprise and join the Chapman sweepstakes. The Mariners, White Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Mets are all teams that may possibly express interest too. Really, there’s no team in MLB that couldn’t use Chapman. But which team has the most resources to trade and greatest need in their bullpen, thus making the best fit for a deal with the Reds. From this view, all signs point to the Astros.
