The National League has its share of awesome pitchers this year. Hell, three of the men who received votes in our poll are from Philadelphia. There was a lot less variety with the Cy Young votes than with the Rookie of the Year votes, as only five NL players got votes, in comparison to eight for the Rookie of the Year. Only one player was named on every ballot. Here are the results.
NL Cy Young Award
1) Roy Halladay (38 points, 12 first place votes)
2) Clayton Kershaw (15 points)
3) Jair Jurrjens (11 points, one first place vote)
4) Cole Hamels (9 points)
5) Cliff Lee (5 points)
It’s a little surprising that man who leads the NL in ERA and is tied for the lead in wins going into the break, Jair Jurrjens, finished in third in the standings. But we’re an enlightened bunch here at the OC, and look past the mainstream stats and really get into things a little deeper. Thus, it’s not really much of a surprise that Roy Halladay is our midseason choice for NL Cy Young. At the midway point, he’s already been worth 5.1 fWAR on the season. The reigning Cy Young winner is fourth in the league in ERA, behind Jurrjens, Hamels, and Tommy Hanson of the Braves, who received no votes. But here’s where Halladay sets himself apart: his 2.16 FIP is best in the league by far over Hamels and Kershaw, and it’s more of the same with his xFIP. Halladay leads the league in innings pitched, and is first in K:BB with a stupid mark of 8.12. Hamels is the only other player in the NL with a mark above 5.00, at 5.02. Lee and Kershaw are the only other players in the league above 4.00. Yeah, Halladay is awesome.
Clayton Kershaw is having a sneaky good year, and leads the NL in strikeouts. He’s tenth in the league in ERA, and is third and FIP and fWAR, and second in xFIP. He’s having a spectacular year for an awful Dodgers team. That bad team will punish him in the media voting, because he’s only got nine wins, though that’s not any fault of Kershaw’s. He’d normally be a slam dunk to win the award at this point in the year, but Halladay has just been so good that it’s going to be a challenge for him.
Jair Jurrjens ia a divisive figure in the statistical community. While he leads the league in ERA and wins, everyone agrees that he’s playing way over his head, thanks to a pedestrian strikeout rate. Jurrjens has put up this great ERA thanks to the lowest walk rate of his career, a low home run rate, and an above average strand rate. He’s been an above average pitcher this season, but isn’t one of the elite, despite what his ERA and win totals may say. Out of everyone on the list, I expect him to regress the most in the second half. He could even be replaced on the list by teammate Hanson, who is having a better season so far that’s flying under the radar.
Cole Hamels is having the best season of his career, bar none. He’s second in the league in ERA, second in K:BB, and has the lowes walk and homer rates of his career. He’s been worth 4.1 fWAR already this season, and has surpassed that total only once in a season over his entire career. He’s been better than the big money free agent acquisition Lee has for the Phillies, and here is perhaps the most important part of the saga: he’s a free agent at the end of the year. The Phillies have a lot of holes in their lineup, and a lot of money tied up in Ryan Howard, Halladay, Lee, and Chase Utley. They need to bring Hamels back, but will they be able to with a gaping hole in left field and possibly one at shortstop too.
Cliff Lee was the signing of the winter, spurning larger offers from the Yankees and Rangers to return to Philly. The big four have been pared down to a big three, after the injury concerns of Roy Oswalt, but the trio have been everything the Phillies could have expected on the season. Lee doesn’t have the insane strikeout to walk numbers like he did last season, but his 4.72 mark is still among the best in the league, and he’s posting a career high strikeout rate of 8.90 batters per nine innings. Lee has been excellent for Philadelphia this season, but he’s been overshadowed by Halladay and Hamels.
Next up: the AL Cy Young. That post will go up at noon today. Let me just say this about that race: it came down to the wire, and was a total barnburner. I’m sure you all know which two players were the main contenders for that one.
