One day after I wrote about the relief market developing quickly with respect to Darren O’Day, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Red Sox acquired veteran closer Craig Kimbrel from the Padres. In return, San Diego gets four young players: Infielders Carlos Asuaje and Javy Guerra, outfielder Manuel Margot, and left-handed pitcher Logan Allen
The Padres traded for Kimbrel less than a year ago in a seldom seen April trade. He went on to have the worst season of his career. Of course, this is Craig Kimbrel we’re talking about. His worst season is honestly other relievers’ career best. Kimbrel accumulated 39 saves in 59.1 innings with a 2.58 ERA and 2.68 FIP. He struck out a whopping 36.4% of batters faced with a .185 BAA and 1.04 WHIP. His previous three seasons were remarkably similar.
| Seasons | IP | Saves | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BAA | WHIP | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-2014 | 191.1 | 139 | 42.2 | 8.2 | 0.42 | .144 | 0.82 | 1.27 | 1.52 |
He saw a slight jump in his BAA and HR/9 to go along with a slight jump in BABIP. Still, all of these numbers were quite good. His average fastball velocity has actually gotten better over the years too, culminating in a career-high 97.3 mph in 2015. I see no reason to believe that Kimbrel has lost a step. And again, if we’re being blunt, he is probably still better at half-effectiveness than a large majority of major league relievers.
Kimbrel is under contract through the 2017 season with a team option for 2o18. He will make $11 million in 2016 and $13 million in 2017. The team option is worth $13 million with a $1 million buyout.
The Padres get four prospects in the deal. Manuel Margot is a 21-year-old center field prospect who split 2015 between A+ and AA, hitting a combined 276/324/419. He projects as a plus fielder with plus speed both in the field and on the bases. According to MLB Pipeline, he was the Red Sox No. 3 prospect and definitely the headliner of the package. But there is more value to be had.
Javier Guerra is a slick fielding shortstop. Although if he needs to move off the position, he should have the arm strength for third base. He spent the entire season in low A at the age of 19. His bat has lagged behind his defense but he had something of a breakout offensive season. He hit 279/329/449 with 15 home runs. In a year when all the attention was on Yoan Moncada, one could make the argument it was Guerra who had the better season. He was the Red Sox No. 6 prospect.
Logan Allen is a left-handed pitcher taken in the 8th round of the 2015 MLB draft. He made it all the way to low A in his first season. That’s a feather in the young 18-year-old’s cap. It’s not an easy thing to do at such a young age. According to MLB Pipeline, he has a plus fastball and an average grade for his curveball, change-up, slider, and control. He was ranked 25th in Boston’s system.
Carlos Asuaje is a 24-year-old infielder who spent all of 2015 at the AA level, playing mostly second base. He projects best as a utility infielder, lacking the bat to project as a regular. But he is close to the majors. He ranked 23rd on the Red Sox list.
This is quite a haul for the Padres to get for Kimbrel. It might be signaling to the rest of the baseball world their intent to rebuild. They recently just traded their other closing option in Joaquin Benoit. For the Red Sox, the deal signals their belief that either 2015 was a fluke or they think they can improve enough to go for it again in 2016.
Statistics and contract details courtesy of FanGraphs
