On Wednesday night, an interesting rumor began to surface – the Atlanta Braves were discussing trading shortstop Andrelton Simmons to an unnamed NL West team.
https://twitter.com/jonahkeri/status/664634632361476097
https://twitter.com/jonahkeri/status/664652570527338496
Braves Twitter proceeded to go absolutely nuts at trading Simmons, a 26-year old two-time Gold Glove winning shortstop that is signed through 2020 at the relatively fair price of $53 million.
Atlanta isn’t exactly asking for peanuts for Simmons, though – they reportedly asked the Mets for either Jacob deGrom or Matt Harvey in return.
#Mets inquired on Simmons this morn and told ask price is Harvey or deGrom, so no way. Also shows how #Braves initially valuing Simmons
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 12, 2015
But when you strip the emotional aspect of trading Simmons out of the equation, the Braves looking to trade him not only makes sense, it could be a logical move for them.
While Simmons’ glove is clearly one of the best at any position in the league, his bat hasn’t really progressed the way the Braves expected. In 2012, Simmons’ rookie year, he hit .289/.335/.419 in 48 games in the majors, though he did miss time with a broken finger. The following year, his first full season in the majors, Simmons homered 17 times and slashed his way to a .248/.296/.396 line. Either of those are sufficient from a shortstop, let alone a shortstop with a glove like Simmons’.
Over the last two seasons, his bat didn’t progress like the Braves expected. In fact, it arguably *regressed*. In 2014, his triple slash plummeted to .244/.286/.331 and his homer total fell to seven. This past season, his power dropped off again – Simmons homered just four times in 147 games. However, his average and OBP both ticked up, moving his triple slash to .265/.321/.338.
For his career, Simmons has hit 31 homers in 499 games. His base stealing his abysmal, as while he’s stolen 16 bases over his career, he’s been caught 13 times. His career triple slash is .256/.304/.362, good for a .292 wOBA and 84 wRC+.
Context is necessary when looking at these offensive statistics, though. Since Simmons debuted in the majors in 2012, 25 shortstops have logged at least 1,500 plate appearances. His .292 wOBA ranks 18th of 25, while his 84 wRC+ ranks 15th of 25. Among the players worse – Zack Cozart, Alcides Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Jean Segura. If you strip out Simmons’ 2012 and just look at his 2013-15 offensive statistics, his wOBA of .289 ranks 23rd of 28, and his wRC +of 82 ranks 21st of 28.
Of course, Simmons isn’t known for his bat – it’s his glove that makes him a commodity. Since his debut in 2012, Simmons has a +113 DRS. The next-best shortstop has 42, a number shared by both Cozart and Brandon Crawford. His 68.4 UZR leads all shortstops in baseball by a vast amount (J.J. Hardy is the lone player above 30, at 39.3). But Simmons isn’t just king of the shortstops, he’s the defensive king of all players in baseball. Those 113 defensive runs saved are 24 more than the second-best player, ex-teammate Jason Heyward. Heyward does have Simmons beat in UZR (80.1 to 68.4), but no other player is even in the same stratosphere as those two.
There are multiple ways to build a winning team. Let’s say the Braves trade Simmons and in the process, downgrade at shortstop but upgrade at both second and third base from Jace Peterson and whichever journeyman/minor league free agent the Braves trot out at third base. Atlanta got a pathetic .236/.304/.334 line from second in 2015 (mainly Peterson, but also Daniel Castro and Pedro Ciriaco), and a disappointing .256/.303/.404 line from third in 2015 (a cornucopia of players, including Alberto Callaspo, Ciriaco, Chris Johnson, Adonis Garcia, Hector Olivera, and Juan Uribe). Those lines were both in the bottom ten in baseball in 2015. Instead of being in the bottom ten, what if the Braves got production in the top 15 of baseball at those positions by trading Simmons, while also trading defense for better offense at short?
Baseball isn’t about one player, it’s about the sum of the parts. Trading Simmons may seem like lunacy, but getting the chance to upgrade two or three positions while trading defense for offense at shortstop would be a no-brainer. This is why Troy Tulowitzki was such an elite player before injuries began to limit his playing time – the guy was an outstanding defender in addition to a bombastic hitter. Nowadays, it’s difficult to have a balanced player at shortstop – players usually end up being able to field or hit but not both. Simmons isn’t Tulowitzki, and resembles someone like Omar Vizquel a lot more.
And there’s nothing wrong with Omar Vizquel! An awesome defender has a place in the game! But Vizquel wasn’t a building block on those 1990s Indians teams John Hart helmed – it was all about players like Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome. Vizquel was never the focus, or the player that simply couldn’t be moved. He was part of the team, but the overall strength of that team allowed the Indians to overlook his deficiencies.
The Braves don’t have any strengths right now. This is a bad team that needs a lot of help. The only positions on the diamond where the Braves have long-term answers are at shortstop and first base. If you can trade one of those players thought of as a building block to create long-term fixes at two or three other positions…it’s something that needs to be considered. No one is advocating trading Simmons to clear money, or just for the hell of it. But if a team wants to answer some of the questions the Braves have at other positions in exchange for Simmons, that’s a tempting situation that might end up resulting in the shortstop having a new home in 2016.
