The Cincinnati Reds are having an offseason fire sale.
General manager Walt Jocketty let Cincinnati.com know the team is “open for business,” in hopes of rebuilding the club after the Reds finished with a 64-98 record, their most losses since 1982. It was sad that the highlight of their messy season was manager Bryan Price’s verbal tirade against a local reporter, where he said the F word 77 times.
Price didn’t do his job all that well, but with a rebuild in mind, Jocketty was smart to retain him use him as a scapegoat when the team starts to bottom out. The Reds had a decent roster last year and still finished with the second-worst record in the entire MLB. Knowing they were in a hole, they opted to deal Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake at the trade deadline, with a focus on the future in mind. Things can get potentially uglier should they embrace the rebuild – but having a clear direction is much needed.
The Reds played like a dumpster fire in 2015, but they have a number of players who would be attractive for contending teams.
Aroldis Chapman seems like the first guy who’s going to go. Every team has seemingly made their closer available this offseason, and Chapman may be best of the bunch. Since signing a six-year, $30.25 million deal back in 2010, Chapman has been one of the better bullpen arms in the league. The 27-year-old, who was the subject of trade rumors last year, sports a career 2.17 ERA, but his bread and butter is making guys look helpless while striking them out. He’s got a career 15.4 K/9 and regularly throws 100 MPH, hitting as high as 105. Chapman’s saved 30+ games has been named an All-Star in the last four consecutive seasons. He’s likely to hit free agency after the season, so price may be lower than it’s ever been.
He’s a beast, but the Reds trading him now would maximize his value.
Outfielder Jay Bruce is another intriguing option for teams looking to beef up the middle of their order.
The 28-year-old finished in the top-10 of MVP voting in 2012 and 2013, after hitting a combined 64 home runs. In 2014, knee surgery seemed to derail his entire season, and the mashing lefty hit .217 with a .281 OBP with only 18 home runs. In 2015, while improved, he didn’t fare much better, hitting 26 home runs, but only managing a paltry .226 batting average with a .294 OBP.
Despite those struggles, Bruce may be the best buy-low candidate of the offseason.
His numbers have declined largely because he’s been so unlucky the last three seasons. His BAPIP was an abysmal .269 and .251 over the last two years, which is likely to rise. With a moderately healthy batting average, even though he strikes out a ton, Bruce seems like a prime bounce-back candidate. He’s still relatively young given his MLB experience and makes just $25.5 million over the next two seasons (the last year being a $13 million team option). There should definitely a strong market for him.
Outside of Todd Frazier, who the Reds would have no problem trading given he plays a premium position well and has monster power, the other big names on the squad would be tougher to move.
Joey Votto has god-like discipline at the plate, and still produces at an elite rate at first base, but he’s owed nearly $200 million. At 32-years-old it’s tough to believe any team would be willing to take that kind of gamble on the Canadian first baseman. Second baseman Brandon Phillips had a solid year in 2015, but he’s 34-years-old, his extra base power has declined steadily over the last few seasons and is owed $27 million over the next two seasons.
What’s tough for Jocketty is that even if he can find a suitor for Votto and Phillips, the duo have no-trade clauses and can veto being moved, as Ken Rosenthal notes. That hasn’t stopped him from getting creative with trade proposals, as Rosenthal reports he’s currently working on a move to trade Phillips in a one-for-one deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks for fellow second baseman Aaron Hill. It would be a smart, cost-cutting move, clearing $15 million off the books. Hill would become a free agent at season’s end, and the Reds could deal him before then for future assets (though given Hill’s 2015, those assets might not be that valuable).
Going from winning 97 and 90 games in back-to-back seasons, only to rebuild three years later should be a tough pill to swallow for fans. Nobody wakes up and says “I can’t wait to see my team lose in the name of the future.” But for the Reds, it’s a necessary step forward. There’s no belief that the team is a couple of pieces away from contention.
Look what happened with the San Diego Padres last season. Instead of rebuilding, they mortgaged a significant part of their future and took on some bad contracts thinking they were ready to become contenders overnight. Those moves were a complete bust, and now the team is stuck in the mud. The Reds are being proactive. They want to give fans in Cincinnati something to look forward too. Yes, it will take time, and the losses will pile up, but this is clearly the right direction for the franchise.
