When Derek Jeter recorded his 3,000th hit last week, he became the first player in four years to reach the milestone, with the most recent before him being Craig Biggio during his farewell tour of 2007. Over the next four years, though, we might have as many as four more guys hit the milestone and there may be one or two more close behind them. So who’s next up for 3,000 hits? And who’s up after that? Follow along after the jump as I look at the chances for players from all age groups to hit the hallowed milestone.
The 2,500+ club
Let’s start with the guys that have already done most of the work to 3,000 hits. Right now, there are six Major Leaguers between 2,500 and 2,999 hits. In order from most to least, they are: Ivan Rodriguez, Omar Vizquel, Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, Chipper Jones, and Vlad Guerrero. You may choose to include Manny Ramirez as a wild card at 2,574, but he seems pretty unlikely at this point.
To be honest, I’m pretty ambivalent about both Pudge and Vizquel. They’re both over 2,800 hits and they both could get to 3,000 if they stretch their careers out, but as near as I can tell Pudge’s career has been over since 2009 and Vizquel’s has been over since 2007. They’re both Hall of Famers with or without 3000. If they want to do an extreme Biggio and prolong their careers for another year or two to get to 3,000, someone will likely give them a chance. I’d rather they preserve their dignity and just retire, but we’re beyond that point already. A-Rod, sitting at 2,762 at age 35 seems like a slam dunk at this point. He’ll probably get there in early 2013 depending on his health.
Chipper Jones and Vlad Guerrero are both probably long-shots given their health. Neither is even at 2,600 yet and they’re both slowing down. I’d say it’s almost impossible for Jones to get to 3,000 and pretty unlikely for Vlad, though he’s probably got a couple years left. Like Vizquel and Pudge, both guys are Hall of Famers with or without 3,000 hits.
The most interesting of this group is Johnny Damon. He’s still about 350 hits away, but he’s showing with Tampa this year that he can still be productive at age 37. If he gets 50 more hits this year, he’s just two 150 hit seasons away. That seems like it’s within his grasp, but his OBP is down to .326 this year and he’s had trouble finding jobs in each of the last two winters. He probably needs three more years to push above 3,000 and it’s far from a guarantee he’ll get that many chances if his production continues to dip even a little bit.
The next generation
It gets murkier after the guys over 2,500 hits, because longevity is so hard to predict. The next two logical choices after A-Rod, Damon, Pudge, and Vizquel would figure to be Albert Pujols and Adrian Beltre. Both guys are youngish (31 and 32, respectively) and they’ll both go over 2,000 hits by late July or early August (Beltre is at 1987, Pujols is at 1984). Beltre is going to be in hitter-friendly Texas through 2015, Pujols is the most talented hitter we’ve seen in a long time. Neither is a sure thing, though. Pujols is showing cracks in his facade for the first time in 2011; he had a bad April and he’s since spent time on the disabled list. He’s usually a 170-180 hit machine if healthy. Five more years like that and he’ll practically be there. But a couple more years like this year and it might be considerably tougher. Beltre’s tough to get a read on because of the way Safeco murdered the middle of his career. In 2004 with LA he had 200 hits. Last year in Boston he had 189 and this year he’s on pace for about 170. He needs to average at least that over the next five years to really have a chance at 3,000.
Right behind them are Carl Crawford and Miguel Cabrera. Both are under 30, both are at or around 1,500 hits, and both are relatively reliable 180+ hit machines. They’re a bit off of Pujols’ pace, but they’re worth keeping an eye on. Of the two, I think Cabrera is most worth watching; he’s younger, he’s a great pure hitter, he’s always been healthy and he doesn’t play a strenuous outfield position like Crawford. Still, he’s had off-field issues and he’s a bit behind Pujols’ pace.
There’s also one longshot in this age group that most people aren’t thinking of. A guy that can devalue the entire milestone, if given enough playing time. I’m talking about 33-year old Juan Pierre, with 1,937 hits. He’s not very good, but he’s been allowed to collect 1,000 hits since 2005 despite an 82 OPS+. I don’t think he’ll be able extend his career enough to pick up another 1,000, but for some reason every year someone is blinded by his speed and loves big hit totals despite a low OBP and he always finds a way into a lineup. If that keeps happening … let’s not think about it.
The young guys
From this point on, it’s awfully hard to predict. That’s both because the players are so young and because there’s not one standout candidate among the players that are 27 or younger. Hanley Ramirez and Nick Markakis are both 27 and about to record their 1,000th hits, but that puts them quite a bit off of Cabrera’s pace. Ryan Zimmerman is the current age-26 leader, but at 866 he’s not much ahead of Markakis and Ramirez’s pace. The age-25 leader is Delmon Young and he … no. Not going to happen. Billy Butler, also 25, is a hit machine (180+ the last two years) worth keeping an eye on, but he needs a few more strong years to establish himself as a bonafide candidate. The best shot of the under-25 crowd seemst to be Justin Upton right now. By virtue of his career starting at age 19, he’s already got 515 hits despite never topping 158 in a season. He’s on pace for 180 this year, though, and if he can hold a 180+ hit pace for a few years he’ll be right in line with Cabrera in getting to 1,500 right around his 28th birthday. He’s young enough and talented enough to do it, but he’s still only 1/6th of the way there.
Beyond the guys that are already most of the way there and Pujols, this is just an incredibly tough thing to predict. Jeter, for example, was just barely over 1,000 at the end of his age-26 season, which isn’t that far ahead of the pace of guys like Zimmerman, Ramirez, or Markakis. Then he rolled off eight years in which he averaged 194 hits a season. Ken Griffey Jr. left Seattle with 1,742 hits. He then averaged less than 100 per year over the next 11 seasons and ended up at 2,781. Getting to 3,000 hits requires skill, health, and luck. Until players get over 2,000, really figuring out their chances at 3,000 is awfully difficult.
