2011 really has been a renaissance year at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Indians are back in first place in the AL Central and Travis Hafner is swinging the bat like one of the most feared DHs in the American League again. Tonight, Hafner added to his legend by coming up with one of the biggest hits possible in baseball: a walkoff grand slam that swung a 4-1 Indians’ deficit into a 5-4 Cleveland win against the Blue Jays.
According to FanGraphs, the Indians’ win probability down by three runs with the bases loaded and one out was 19.4%. Hafner’s blast obviously raised their WP% to 100%, which means that on that one swing of the bat Hafner’s win probability added (WPA) was a whopping .806. In Major League Baseball this year, there are 156 hitters qualified for the batting title in either league, and only 50 of them have a net WPA of .81 or higher on the full season. Hafner’s one mighty swing added about as much win probability for the Indians tonight as Carlos Gonzalez and Adam Jones have over the course of the entire season. That’s a clutch hit.
Hafner rose to prominence with three monster seasons between 2004 and 2006 (he hit .308/.419/.611, an OPS+ of 170, and averaged 34 homers, 38 doubles, and 111 RBIs per season), but he hasn’t been quite the same since then. Between 2007 and 2010, Hafner’s hit just .261/.365/.438 (OPS+ of 115) and averaged only 105 games per season due to a slew of injuries keeping him off of the field.
Hafner’s having trouble staying on the field again this year (he’s played only 46 games), but at least he seems to have regained his stroke at the plate. He’s hitting .338/.423/.545 and in 2011’s depressed offensive environment, that’s good for an OPS+ of 171. His walkoff homer last night was the eighth of the season. Last year, he hit just 13 in 118 games. Of course, Hafner will need to stay on the field for this story to continue and the Indians will almost certainly need his bat if they want to keep their slim over the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. After a night like last night, though, anything seems possible.
Also last night: Pronk’s grand slam bumped the Cubs crazy comeback against the Nats from the top spot. The Nationals took an 8-0 lead, only to squander it and fall behind in the top of the eighth, tie it in the bottom of the inning, and lose it in the ninth. The Brewers beat the Reds and the Diamondbacks beat the Cardinals, which creates a Milwaukee/St. Louis tie atop the NL Central. The Braves beat the Rockies, ensuring that this weekend’s Braves/Phillies series will include baseball’s two best teams according to record. Last night’s full results here.
Tonight: We’ve got a great weekend of baseball ahead of us. There’s the aforementioned Braves/Phillies seriest that kicks off with Brandon Beachy/Roy Halladay matchup, there’s Yankees/Rays, and there’s Reds/Brewers. As a bonus tonight, we’ve got a Josh Beckett/Zach Britton pitching matchup in Boston and a CJ Wilson/Gio Gonzalez matchup in Arlington. Tonight’s full schedule is here.
