Even before Shelby Miller threw three straight no-hitters, he was a big-time prospect, but when he intimated a high price tag and had a brief period of wildness, his stock dropped him out of the very top draft picks in 2009. The St. Louis Cardinals, however, took him with the 19th pick and banked on the big arm and the big breaking ball. Just two short years later, there are quite a few teams upset they passed on the big righty.
Miller ranks extremely high on everyone’s prospect rankings. Keith Law had him 9th on this season’s Top 100, and everyone else had him near that spot on theirs. Miller was also a universal number 1 Cardinals prospect heading into the year. The reasons are simple. At 6’3”, he has the perfect size for a pitcher, and he has a little room to fill out, which would help him keep the velocity he had with a larger workload or simply gain more velocity. And he had plenty of velocity coming out of high school, hitting 97 and sitting 93-95. Miller adds an excellent 12-to-6 curveball, and his change-up has been way better than most thought, possibly becoming a third plus pitch. The only knock on Miller remains his command. While he has improved in the area, he still has moments where it disappears, but no one’s terribly worried about it.
The stats back up the strong scouting reports. Starting in Low-A Quad Cities in 2010, Miller threw 105 innings and struck out 140, but he did walk 4.25 per 9, which is way too high. This season, he faced stiffer competition in High-A Palm Beach, but he thoroughly dominated with a 13.8 K/9 and 4 BB/9. He’s already been moved up to AA Springfield, and he’s facing a few problems. He is striking out 9 per 9, but the walk rate is nearing 5, and that won’t do. It indicates that, while the stuff is good, his command still wavers.
The strong start had everyone excited, and it even had a few people talking about a late-season call-up. But that isn’t going to happen. Hitters get better as Miller progresses up the ladder, and it’s not a good sign that he’s walked so many in AA. Miller will need to harness his command before he moves any farther. It’s not a major long-term concern, but it does slow down the hype train. Miller is still very young and won’t turn 21 until October. The Cardinals do not need to rush him, and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if, barring an improvement in command, he started next season at AA, which wouldn’t be a bad sign at all.
But when should we expect to see Miller in the majors? Carpenter will probably have his option picked up, and the same goes for Wainwright. Lohse is still kicking it in the Gateway to the West for another year, and Jake Westbrook will be around for at least next season. Kyle McClellan has pitched okay, but he’s certainly no barrier to Miller. I don’t think Miller will be up this season unless it’s a late-season call to the bullpen, which may not be terrible but it is improbable. I don’t think they’ll let him come out of Spring Training next season with a job, either. Barring injuries and unexpected moves, I’d look late 2012 with a small chance at a June/July call-up next season. Not bad at all for a 2009 draftee.
