If the Chicago Cubs got to the postseason a year earlier than ultimately expected, they looked especially precocious during Wednesday’s 4-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game. A young team that developed quickly accelerated the plans in Wrigleyville, helped largely by Jake Arrieta pitching like the ace he’s been all season.
But winning a one-game playoff and entering a best-of-five series against the rival Cardinals, with all of the postseason experience and tradition they boast, is a formidable task to overcome. As impressive as the Cubs looked on Wednesday, one game doesn’t answer several questions that still linger going into Friday’s NLDS Game 1.
Is Jake Arrieta this year’s Madison Bumgarner?
This seemed to come up quite a bit on Twitter during Wednesday night’s victory. Just like the San Francisco Giants’ left-hander did last season, Arrieta shut out the Pirates to win the Wild Card playoff and put the Cubs into the Division Series. The question now is whether or not Arrieta can carry the Cubs as far as Bumgarner did during last year’s postseason.
Bumgarner set quite a bar for anyone else to reach with his performance, allowing a total of six earned runs in 52.2 innings during the Giants’ run to a championship. He started two games in the NLCS versus the Cardinals and made three appearances against the Royals in the World Series, including a Game 7 relief stint in which he pitched five scoreless innings.
Arrieta will likely only get to pitch one game in the NLDS since he had to start the Wild Card game and probably won’t be available until Monday’s Game 3. So to put together a dominant postseason, his team will have to give him an opportunity to pitch twice in the NLCS by advancing past the Cardinals. Obviously, Arrieta’s performance in Game 3 could be pivotal in how the series plays out.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 11: Kyle Hendricks #28 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch in the bottom of the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies on September 11, 2015 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Can someone step up as the No. 3 starter?
One of the biggest questions the Cubs faced late in the regular season isn’t going away during the playoffs. Who is the Cubs’ third-best starting pitcher behind Arrieta and Jon Lester. Obviously, Arrieta proved his postseason merit (as if his spectacular, Cy Young Award-caliber regular season wasn’t enough) with his impressive performance versus the Pirates. And Lester is an experienced playoff pitcher with a track record of success. Giving up six runs in last year’s AL Wild Card game with the A’s is obviously a stain on that résumé, but the left-hander has pitched well in his three other previous postseasons, most recently compiling a 1.56 ERA in the Red Sox’s 2013 World Series run.
But who takes the ball for the Cubs besides Arrieta and Lester? That pitcher will almost certainly get the Game 2 nod in the NLDS, presuming that Lester starts Game 1. Jason Hammel put up solid numbers as the team’s No. 3 starter during the regular season, compiling a 10-7 record, 3.74 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 170.2 innings. But he was terrible in the second half, especially in September, logging a 5.10 ERA with 78 hits allowed in 67 innings.
That makes Kyle Hendricks the likelier candidate to get the call. The 25-year-old went 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 180 innings. But he was the more reliable starter after the All-Star break. In September, Hendricks notched a 3.03 ERA, striking out 39 batters in 32.2 innings. He was also on the Cubs’ roster for the Wild Card game, while Hammel wasn’t. Perhaps that’s not worth reading too much into for a one-game playoff, but it would seem to indicate manager Joe Maddon considered Hendricks a better option out of the bullpen if needed.
CINCINNATI, OH – OCTOBER 1: Hector Rondon #56 of the Chicago Cubs pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning at Great American Ball Park on October 1, 2015 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Cubs defeated the Reds 5-3. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Is the Cubs’ bullpen good enough?
Arrieta pitching a complete game made the bullpen a moot point Wednesday night. But had the Pirates been able to chase him from the game, especially early, the Cubs’ relief corps may have made a win a more questionable proposition. Chicago’s bullpen pitched well during the regular season, finishing with a 3.38 ERA that ranked four in the NL. Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Justin Grimm appear to be a strong back end of the bullpen that can close out games for the Cubs, with Travis Wood giving Maddon a good option against left-handed batters.
But what if Lester or Hendricks (or Arrieta) can’t make it past five innings and the Cubs have to go to middle relief? Fernando Rodney would seem to be a reliable option, but also has the potential to blow up if he starts walking batters. If Clayton Richard or Trevor Cahill have to appear, that might not be a good sign. Can either of them, or perhaps Wood, be the bridge to the late-inning bullpen trio? The Royals and Giants had answers in those situations last year, while the Dodgers and Orioles did not. And that may have been the difference.
With the Cardinals boasting a strong bullpen on the other side, the Cubs will need to match up well during high-leverage situations in late innings. We know the Cards can do it. It’s a question mark for the Cubs.
PITTSBURGH, PA – OCTOBER 07: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs hits a fly ball in the third inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the National League Wild Card game at PNC Park on October 7, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Will the middle of the order come through?
Though the Cubs roughed up Gerrit Cole in the Wild Card game, giving Arrieta all the offense he needed, the middle of the lineup didn’t really come through from a run production standpoint. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Tommy La Stella (who was later replaced by Austin Jackson) and Starlin Castro went a combined 0-for-15 on Wednesday. It’s surely unfair to point to a one-game performance, and all of those hitters will have an opportunity to supply some offense — perhaps even key hits — during the NLDS. Bryant and Castro also made some excellent defensive plays in the later innings versus the Pirates.
But a primary concern about the Cubs regarded their postseason inexperience. That could manifest itself most obviously in the middle of the lineup if their young hitters don’t perform when scoring opportunities arise. With the Wild Card game out of the way, perhaps questions about being dazzled or overwhelmed by the postseason have already been addressed, if they ever applied to begin with. (Kyle Schwarber probably has no use for such talk.)
For what it’s worth, Bryant batted .222 (2-for-9) against John Lackey, the Cardinals’ Game 1 starter. Rizzo hit .083 (1-for-12), while Castro batted .250 (3-for-12). St. Louis hasn’t announced its Game 2 starter yet, but Rizzo and Castro have hit Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn rather well. And the Cubs’ young hitters could feast on Michael Wacha if he starts Game 4, with Bryant hitting .300, and Rizzo and Castro each batting .455 against him.
