Predicting stuff is hard, especially when you’re talking about sports. One injury can dramatically change everything. One trade can turn a team from an also-ran into a powerhouse. One player expected to contribute can struggle, and one player not expected to play a significant role can thrive.
Nevertheless, every year we roll out predictions. They usually look pretty silly by the end of the year. But this year, our predictions were awful.
11 of our writers made predictions for the preseason awards, division titles, and playoffs. You can check them out here if you’re so inclined. None of us had the Rangers, Royals, or Yankees as playoff teams. Only five of us picked the Blue Jays to make the playoffs, and only two of those five had them claiming the AL East crown. If the Angels end up taking the second Wild Card in the AL, we’ll feel good – ten of our 11 staffers picked them to make the playoffs, and none of us had either the Astros or Twins as playoff teams.
We all had the Nationals winning the NL East. Whoops. Only one staffer had the Mets as a playoff team. We all had the Dodgers winning the NL West, and all of us had the Cardinals as a playoff team. Eight of us picked the Pirates for the playoffs, and a whopping zero of us picked the Cubs to win a spot in the NL’s Postseason.
As for our pennant picks, the only AL team still in contention that was picked to win was the Angels, who three of us had taking the crown. Sorry, Indians and Mariners fans. Over in the National League, one of us had the Pirates winning the pennant, and two of us chose the Dodgers. Washington got seven of the eight remaining votes. Dammit, Nationals. Our World Series picks were similar – Washington collected five votes to lead the pack, while the Dodgers, Angels, and Pirates are the only teams playing meaningful baseball to collect votes.
How about our award voting? Mike Trout and Jose Abreu took home all the AL MVP votes. Trout could still win! Our NL MVP voting was wide open, but Bryce Harper only picked up one vote to win the award. Other candidates for the top five to get votes back in the spring included Andrew McCutchen (three), Jason Heyward (one), and Anthony Rizzo (one). We didn’t like Bryce, and we didn’t like poor Paul Goldschmidt either.
The AL Cy Young award is still up for grabs, but our overwhelming favorite was Felix Hernandez. He may not collect a vote. No one gave love to David Price or Dallas Keuchel. Over in the NL, Clayton Kershaw is still in the mix, and he picked up five votes. None of us cared about Zack Greinke or Jake Arrieta…but Justin Schultz *did* call both Keuchel and Arrieta dark horse Cy Young contenders in April.
Our staff did well with the NL Rookie of the Year, as Kris Bryant notched eight of the 11 votes. In the AL, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Miguel Sano got a total of zero. Rookies are hard to predict.
I also asked the staff for their picks of the most surprising and disappointing teams in the league. The Mets and Astros each got two surprise votes, while the Cubs got one. The Marlins got four. Yikes. In the disappointment category, our three voters for the Tigers, two for the Cubs, and one each for the Red Sox and White Sox were on the money.
We also rolled out some “bold predictions“, in which I essentially invited everyone to drop their hottest takes. None were completely right. Some were hilariously wrong (like when yours truly said the Giants *and* Royals would finish under .500). The most accurate prediction was by former editor Garrett Wilson, who predicted the Dodgers’ payroll would climb to over $300 million after acquiring Cole Hamels and others.
The moral of the story? Predictions are difficult to make. When someone’s insane prediction hits the mark before the season, it’s more about luck than skill.
