You often hear about NFL or NBA teams possibly not trying to win as hard as they could in order to raise their draft place (the Browns #FailForCardale campaign has been very divisive), but rarely does the topic come up in baseball. This has generally been because the fan bases that create this narrative don’t know the incoming draft class and the fact that prospects generally take years to develop and have a high dropout rate.
Despite all this, moving even one place higher in the draft order can be huge as the order maintains for all 40 rounds and in the first few rounds in particular, this can make a big difference. It’s hard to judge previous drafts because of the difficulty in scouting a true Major Leaguer, but in 2013, the difference between #11 and #15 was Addison Russell and Tyler Naquin (a fourth outfielder candidate who hasn’t made his MLB debut yet). There is no question that being able to pick who you want in the draft gives you the best chance to be successful irrelevant of good scouting.
This year, it looked as if the Braves had a lock on the top spot, but a recent streak when they won five out of six propelled them ahead of the Phillies (who have two five game losing streaks in September) in the standings and behind them in the draft. With just five games left, the Phillies appear to have a near lock on the first pick in 2016 while the Braves, Reds, and Athletics are still in shooting distance to make a play at number two.
The really interesting area right now, however, is in the middle rounds. All those teams who were in the running for the American League Wild Card as well as two who were well out of the National League race are currently within four games of each other for the eight through 16th pick. As a playoff team, those with the final ten picks shouldn’t mind picking at the end of the draft, but there is a big difference between eight and 16.
Of these teams, Detroit got the biggest head start when they blew things up at the trade deadline, sending David Price to Toronto. In August, a 3-13 run helped move the Tigers from third to last in the American League Central and while they have still played decently of late, they have the worst record in the group at 73-84 (tied with the Padres). This may have been Dave Dombrowski’s last gift to the team he spent so long with, aiding their movement towards youth by moving them from the last half of the draft order to the first half.
Staying in the Central, the team with the biggest change in outlook is the Cleveland Indians. Last week, they were looking at an outside chance at a playoff spot if they could win every series for the rest of the season, but multiple losses to the Twins have ended that optimism with a week’s worth of games left. They will likely only play six of those seven games as there is now no reason to make up the final game against the Tigers and if they lose out, they could make the biggest jump from 16th to eight. While ending the season on a losing streak wouldn’t look good for a squad that has made great improvements in the final two months, a move up the draft board would be a decent consolation prize now that the play-offs are out of the question.
In the NL, the Padres and Diamondbacks have been out of playoff contention for a considerable amount of time, but they have not “embraced the tank” as much as the Phillies, Reds, Brewers, and Braves have. The DBacks are one of three teams sitting on 76 wins right now (along with the Rays and Orioles) and it shouldn’t take much more than a losing record to maintain the 12th pick or move past the Mariners at 11. Of benefit to all three teams, the Astros end their season against both the Mariners (two games) and Arizona (three games) and if they sweep their last five games, it should make everyone involved fairly happy. Of course, the Astros have been losing at a rate more similar to these early drafting teams than one attempting to win a Wild Card, so anything could still happen.
As always, no professional sports team should go into a game looking to lose, but the switch between an extreme benefit to winning every game for teams like the Indians, Orioles, and Rays into a situation where losing would result in the greater good for the team is at least extremely interesting.
