No one thought the Twins would finish above .500 this year, with most picking them to finish dead last in an extremely deep AL Central. Instead, they contended far longer than the dark horse favorite White Sox and Indians and buried the 2014 Central champion Tigers. While they got knocked from contention in the second to last day of the 2015 season, this year has to be a huge positive note for everyone in the organization.
Preseason Prediction: While staying healthy is indeed a skill, the issues that have hampered Buxton lead me to believe that bad luck was too much a part of it to think he couldn’t step up and do something good in 2015 for the big league club. Same thing with Sano, Meyer and Berrios. Even if the entire group doesn’t arrive before the All-Star Break, the Twins should be excited to see so much young talent arrive to join young-yet-flawed talents in Vargas and Danny Santana. The jump from 70 to 81 wins isn’t as big as you might think considering the division the Twins play in, but if everyone stays relatively healthy, 80 wins is a realistic goal for the Twins. And if all cylinders are firing, 2016 in the AL Central will be one heck of a race. (Tim Livingston, March 16th)
What Went Right: A lot had to go right for the Twins to turn from expected cellar dwellers into late season contenders and it did. Kyle Gibson has matured into a solid starter in just his third major league season and the rest of the rotation has been serviceable enough to give the Twins a chance every day. The most recent stand out of this group has been Tyler Duffey, who went 5-1 in ten starts with a 3.10 ERA and 53 K’s in 58 innings. In the bullpen, the combination of Glen Perkins and Blaine Boyer along with the newly acquired Kevin Jepsen were fantastic, blowing just six of 70 potential saves and holds.
Offensively, Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer had resurgent seasons to support the growing core of Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier. Three of those four hit 20 or more home runs, giving the Twins three such hitters for the first time since Jim Thome, Delmon Young and Jason Kubel did so in 2010. Plouffe put together his fourth straight season with at least 50 RBI, 14 HR and 19 doubles and Dozier had his second with at least 70 RBI, 23 HR and 33 2B.
In addition to the production that was generally expected from the core, Miguel Sano made a great contribution as a rookie. He, alongside Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, is a solid Rookie of the Year candidate after 18 home runs, 17 doubles and a .269/.385/.535 line. Rookies as a whole came up huge for the Twins as Sano was joined by Duffey, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario ,and Trevor May in what was a really solid rookie class.
ANAHEIM, CA – JULY 22: Danny Santana #39 of the Minnesota Twins celebrates after scoring on a two run single hit by Brian Dozier #2 (not pictured) in the third inning during a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on July 22, 2015 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jonathan Moore/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Beyond Gibson, the Twins rotation was at least kind of a mess. Each of their five most used starters beyond their ace and Tommy Milone (thanks to a solid final start of the season) hold an ERA above four. Mike Pelfrey allowed nearly 1.5 runners per inning, Phil Hughes had the highest ERA at 4.40 and Ervin Santana (who missed the first half of the season with a PED suspension), Milone, and Trevor May weren’t much better.
Offensively, while Sano far outproduced his expectations, two other young position players underwhelmed. Danny Santana brought excitement to the Twins in 2014, batting .319 and bringing good base running and solid defense at shortstop. This year, he has batted just .214 with no home runs (seven in 101 games last year) and was one of the teams worst defenders. In addition, top prospect Byron Buxton made his MLB debut this season and got into 44 games, batting just .216/.252/.336 with slightly below league average defense in center field.
DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 25: Torii Hunter #48 of the Minnesota Twins celebrates with his teammates in the dugout after scoring on the triple by Eddie Rosario #20 (not in photo) during the fifth inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers on September 25, 2015 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: You could say that Sano was a huge surprise, but the player who surprised me the most was Hunter. At 39 years old, the former Twin rejoined the team as more of a mentor than offensive presence, but he has had a resurgence of sorts. His 22 home runs are the most since 2011 and he has done that in the least amount of games since 2009. He extended his streak of 70+ RBI seasons to ten years and his streak of 20+ doubles to 15. If this is his final season, it would be a solid end to a near Hall of Fame caliber career, but Hunter has already stated that he plans on taking the rest of his career year by year and the Twins and Paul Molitor have stated that they would like him to come back.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – MAY 31: Ricky Nolasco #47 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning of the game on May 31, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: Ignoring the moral disappointment of Santana, the biggest on the field disappointment for the Twins was their third highest paid player, Ricky Nolasco. After seven years of relative mediocrity with the Marlins and one half of a good season with the Dodgers, Nolasco was given a four year, $49M deal prior to the 2014 season by Minnesota. After a dreadful season where he made 27 starts and posted a 5.38 ERA (0 WAR), Nolasco was even more disappointing this year making just seven starts with a 5.51 ERA (although somehow a 5-1 record) before having ankle surgery and missing most of the season. He recently returned to the team, but has since made just one relief appearance, allowing three runs in two innings against Cleveland.
While I did say this was a worse year for Nolasco, it may have been better for the Twins that he was out as they got to see a lot more innings out of a few more effective pitchers including Milone, May and Duffey.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 25: Miguel Sano #22 of the Minnesota Twins celebrates at the plate with teammate Byron Buxton #25 following his three-run home run during the first inning of a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 25, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Miguel Sano; Byron Buxton
The Future: Depending on a large rookie class isn’t generally a good thing when trying for a play-off spot, but it is when building a team for the future. The Twins have that solid youthful core including Duffey, Gibson, Sano, Santana and Buxton and even if some struggled this year, they will almost all certainly be better in the next. There is some worry in those big contracts handed to Santana and Nolasco as well as the aging Joe Mauer who is owed $69M over the next three seasons, but the Twins should have enough youth around them to weather that storm.
Thanks to those big contracts and the otherwise youthful team, the Twins are looking to lose very few free agents with just three relievers, including Boyer and Brian Duensing, Mike Pelfrey and Hunter out of a deal. The Twins could resign Hunter and may try to keep the relievers, but their rotation has shown enough resilience that they will probably be better off without Pelfrey. While this years team didn’t reach the ultimate prize, they far exceeded expectations and showed that it won’t be as long as originally thought for a winning club to return to the Twin Cities.
