We’re over halfway through the season and, lo and behold, Boston and New York are 1-2 in the American League East, with the Tampa Bay Rays lurking in third place hoping to make a move. The Yankees hold a 1/2 game lead Wednesday’s action, and both teams had done it with similar strategies: Hit, hit and hit some more.
Boston’s offense had been the story of the league for both good and bad. Adrian Gonzalez has been setting the world on fire, hitting at a .348/.405/.583 clip, good enough for 4.5 WAR per Baseball Reference, third best in the league behind Justin Verlander and The Dominican Bambino, Jose Bautista. Meanwhile, Carl Crawford has been pretty miserable, hitting .243/.275/.384, playing below replacement level at -0.4 WAR. He had admitted to playing under pressure to live up to his contract, and even though his March and April were beyond bad (.155/.204/.257), his May (.304/.328/.482) and June (.278/.298/.463) have been markedly better, he’s walked only 9 times in 277 PA (3.2%), and has 46 strikeouts (16.6%), which is 2% in the wrong direction for each rate (5.3% walk and 14.4% strikeouts).
Even with Cawford’s struggles, the addition of three players that missed considerable time in 2010 have made up for it. Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury have all had great years, as well, and David Ortiz leads the team in home runs. Funnily enough, Ortiz, the man known for being one of the most clutch players in team history, has the worst clutch score in baseball this year at -1.9 per FanGraphs. The team scores 5.22 runs per game, second only to the team they are chasing, who lead with 5.3.
The Yankees offense has been led by the surprising Curtis Granderson, who is tied with Mark Teixeira for the team lead in home runs with 25, and is an MVP candidate with a .278/.370/.597 split. He’s been taking advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium, but has also been doing it on the road, with 13 road taters. The usual suspects fall in behind Granderson, with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner all pulling their weight in a lineup that top-to-bottom is the best in baseball. Russell Martin, who was brought in on a flyer, has cooled off since his hot start, netting 0.7 WAR, but still, is an improvement over Jorge Posada, who is replacement level and close to the Old Yeller stage of his career. Of course, we all know the trials and tribulations of El Capitan, so he’s best left to the side in this comparison.
On the pitching side of things, the Yankees are getting their normal greatness from C.C. Sabbathia, who is pitching well in what could be considered a walk year for him. A.J. Burnett is pitching above replacement level by BR standards (1.3), but is still inconsistent and hasn’t lived up to the contract he’s signed. It’s been the reclamation projects that have saved the starting rotation for New York, as Freddy Garcia (2.2) and Bartolo Colon (2.0) have helped make Sabbathia’s life a little bit easier at the front of the rotation. There has also been contributions from guys like David Robertson (1.7), Luis Ayala (1.0) and Ivan Nova (0.7) in shorter stints.
For Boston, it’s been the resurgence of Josh Beckett (4.2) that has pushed their rotation. Jon Lester (2.8) has also had a good season, and Clay Buchholz (1.9) has made his contributions, but outside of that, the Red Sox have been pitching starved. Daniel Bard (1.4), the set-up man, has the next highest WAR on the team, and the injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka (0.1) and John Lackey (a disastrous -1.6) have had paltry returns at the back of the rotation, and their replacements, Andrew Miller (0.4), Alfredo Aceves (0.5) and Tim Wakefield (0.1) have been barely worthwhile.
Both teams have been really great afield, too. Boston’s defense is leading the league in UZR at 28.0 while New York is sitting in fourth at 25.5. Boston is stronger up the middle with great contributions from Pedroia, Ellsbury and Marco Scutaro, while the Yankees are getting Gold Glove-caliber performances from Gardner in left and A-Rod at the hot corner.
Perhaps most interesting while comparing these two behemoths is how well they do against each other. This season, Boston has pasted the Yankees to the tune of an 8-1 record and a +23 run differential. Boston has scored 5 or more runs in all but two of the contests and have lost all six games at Yankee Stadium. It’s obvious that they are using their offensive prowess here, but New York has really amped up the offense in recent weeks themselves, leading to a very interesting second half of the year when the two teams face each other another nine times.
When talking about the AL East, the Rays have to be a part of the discussion, too. After losing a couple of big pieces this past offseason, they sit only four games back of first place.They have done it with a middling offense, good defense and a pitching staff that has weathered the loss of Matt Garza and most of their bullpen pretty well. Their MO has been to be able to play with the big boys by making the most of what little they’ve had, and right now, they sit on the precipice of exactly that.
What’s interesting going forward will be how the teams attack the trade market. Boston is in pretty desperate need of starting pitching, but thanks to the Adrian Gonzalez trade, their cupboards are bare. The Yankees really have few weaknesses afield (save the untradeable Captain) but they wouldn’t mind having another reliable arm considering Garcia’s known fragility and Colon’s penchant for injury himself, although it would be more a backup plan than anything else. They’ve also shown that they will bring someone up if necessary to fill a void. The Rays, meanwhile, are still letting Desmond Jennings stew in Triple-A while not bringing him up while talks about trading B.J. Upton have come up every now and then. Still, they’re running Sam Fuld (whose legend is all but dead) and Andrew Ruggiano out there. The timing for Super Two status has basically passed, and I think Jennings coming up to play LF would be a good move for the stretch run. They could use the upgrade at catcher, shortstop and first base, as well.
The three teams will all be of the 90-95 win variety, but as it has been for the past few seasons, every little win counts, and while their methods have been different, all three have done a lot to try and eek out whatever advantage they can get in numerous fields. Each team can tweak a few things going forward, but they all must play to their strengths. It might end up hurting them a bit down the stretch if all three are in the race together come September, but at the very least, it should be a fun run (as it normally is) in the AL East.
If I were to do any predicting at all, I think the Yankees take the division with 95+ wins, I think the Red Sox beat up on the weaklings with their offensive attack and get to 90, but I’m not sure they beat out the Rays, who could make a sneaky move here or there at the trade deadline to boost their offense just a little bit. Their talent level in their minor league system is once again amongst the best, and could be used as leverage to make a big move for a bat. Plus, having Jennings promoted could equal a 2-3 win bump in LF if they make the move. In the end, it should be Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, but considering how close all three teams usually are down the stretch, don’t be surprised if it comes down to the bitter end.
Post Author: tim_livingston.
