2015 didn’t go as expected for the Seattle Mariners. The chic preseason contender got out of the game slow, and was above .500 for all of one day in 2015 – Opening Day. They righted the ship in the second half, but by then, it was too late. Eventually the sword fell on GM Jack Zduriencik, and now this is Jerry Dipoto’s mess to clean up.
Preseason Prediction: The injury bug will hit the team, but it won’t be a big deal. Jackson and Ackley will have good seasons, the pitching staff will be top notch and Seager and Cano will be linchpins in the offense. Cruz will most likely hit 20 homers. This team should be right there in the Wild Card race, but an opportunity to contend for the AL West title is not out of the question. I see them as a 90-92 win team right now that will give the Angels a run for their money at the division title. (Tim Livingston, March 4th)
What Went Right: Nelson Cruz did what he was expected to do, blasting a career-high 43 homers and hitting .304/.374/.571. In the first season of his seven year contract extension, Kyle Seager homered 25 times (tied for a career-high) and hit .270/.330/.454. Franklin Gutierrez returned after numerous injury-plagued seasons to homer 15 times in 54 games. Seth Smith had another valuable two-win season as a platoon outfielder.
Rookie Ketel Marte was called up in the second half and claimed the starting shortstop job now and in the future, hitting .281/.347/.412 with seven steals in 52 games. Brad Miller hit ten homers and stole 13 bases, but is still a project in center field. Rookie Carson Smith struck out 90 in 67 1/3 innings while pitching to a 2.41 ERA.
ANAHEIM, CA – SEPTEMBER 26: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners stands in the dugout after finishing the sixth inning and coming out of the game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 26, 2015 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Felix Hernandez just wasn’t himself. His 3.53 ERA is his highest since 2007, and his strikeout rate is at its lowest since 2010. Of course, he’s won 18 games, the second-most of his career. Taijuan Walker’s 4.56 ERA in 29 starts wasn’t pretty, but he did post a strikeout to walk ratio of just under 4.00. Hisashi Iwakuma made only 19 starts, while James Paxton, Roenis Elias, and Mike Montgomery all struggled in their part-time roles in the rotation.
The Fernando Rodney bubble finally popped to the tune of a 5.68 ERA and seven blown saves. The bullpen as a whole wasn’t great outside of Smith, the traded Mark Lowe, and Tom Wilhelmsen, with Rodney, Joe Beimel, Danny Farquhar, Mayckol Guaipe, and David Rollins having rough years.
Offensively, there were other issues. Robinson Cano didn’t show up in the first half, and while he rebounded later in the year to push his current stat line to .282/.330/.436 with 19 homers, his struggles aren’t exactly inspiring hope for the remaining eight years on his contract. Austin Jackson was disappointing, homering eight times and stealing 15 bases over 107 games, and was shipped to the Cubs.
Mark Trumbo homered 13 times in 91 games, but Welington Castillo has homered 17 times and out-hit Trumbo since being dealt for him…not a good thing for a team that needs catching help. Speaking of catching, Mike Zunino hit .174/.230/.330 with 11 homers and was demoted to the minors. Dustin Ackley stunk again and was traded to the Yankees. Rickie Weeks was a non-factor. Logan Morrison homered 17 times, but did little else at first base. Jesus Montero still can’t hit.
SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 15: Franklin Gutierrez #30 of the Seattle Mariners rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the seventh inning at Safeco Field on September 15, 2015 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: Franklin Gutierrez played 92 games in 2011, 40 games in 2012, 41 games in 2013, and zero in 2014. The Mariners signed him to a minor league deal this winter after paying him $18 million from 2011-14. Naturally, Gutierrez is completely healthy and playing at a ridiculous level this season, homering 15 times in 54 games while hitting a ridiculous .312/.370/.669. He homered 15 times combined in the 173 games he played from 2011-14 (though ten of those did come in his 41 game 2013 season).
This resurgence has been improbable, delightful, and probably won’t last into 2016. Gutierrez has a .358 BABIP this year. Nearly 40% of the flyballs he’s hit have gone over the fence. Yes, he has a 24.5% line drive rate and a 40.0% hard hit rate, but we’re still dealing with tiny samples here. He’ll be 33 next February, but given how desperate Seattle always seems to be for offense, they might as well roll the dice with him again next season.
SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 7: Second baseman Robinson Cano #22 of the Seattle Mariners squats down on the infield during break in play in a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 7, 2015 in Seattle, Washington. The Rangers won the game 3-0. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: So many possible choices! We can’t really label Ackley or Zunino as disappointing considering they’ve never really succeeded in the majors. The same goes for Logan Morrison and Mark Trumbo, whose reputations have outweighed their actual productivity for years now.
I guess that leaves Robinson Cano as an easy, justifiable target. Cano did increase his power output this season, and still played in 151 games, but he’s posting his lowest OBP since 2008. His ISO is still the third-lowest mark of his career, behind just 2008 and 2014. Even his batting average has dropped, falling under .300 for just the second time in his career. When a guy is getting $24 million per season until the end of time, you expect a lot more.
On the bright side, he’s hitting .323/.383/.525 in the second half with 13 homers, so maybe the slump was just confined to the first three months of the year. But Cano really has to do more over the course of the full season, given his contract and overall importance to the squad.
ANAHEIM, CA – SEPTEMBER 27: Hisashi Iwakuma #18 of the Seattle Mariners reacts as he is removed from the game during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 27, 2015 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
The Future: The Mariners’ only real key free agent is Iwakuma, though Dipoto will have decisions to make when it comes to the topic of whether or not to tender contracts to the pricey Trumbo and Morrison. Seattle likely won’t have all that much payroll to play with (they have $78, $76, and $84 million committed from 2016-18), and given the team’s aspirations of contention, Dipoto is going to need to get creative to bring this team back up to the top of the AL West.
Now that the Blue Jays have clinched a playoff spot, Seattle’s playoff drought (2001) is the longest in baseball, and the team really wants to end that stretch in 2016. It won’t be easy, given the weaknesses of the club and the struggles of many top prospects in the organization, but a few upgrades in the right places could lead to the Mariners contending for pole position in the AL West next season.
