One of the most enjoyable parts of a baseball seasons is seeing which players will take you by surprise. Sometimes it’s a rookie in his first real taste of the majors. Sometimes it’s a younger player finally figuring things out. And sometimes it’s a veteran player having a career year. Whatever and whoever it is, it’s always different every year and finding that out can be a lot of fun.
Today I’m going to present to you 2015’s All-Breakout Team. I’m going to pick one player for each position that has had what I consider to be the most remarkable season in one way or another. The catch is that this player cannot be one that would have been expected to produce well coming into this season based on the previous few seasons at least. Otherwise it wouldn’t exactly be a breakout.
CATCHER – Francisco Cervelli, Pittsburgh Pirates
Francisco Cervelli was a solid backup catcher with the Yankees for a good six years. He always got good marks for his defense and he even had a pretty solid season at the plate last year. But he had eclipsed 200 plate appearances only once in those six seasons. So when the Pirates announced they would be letting Russell Martin walk and give the full time spot to Cervelli, a lot of people were skeptical. Turns out the Pirates knew what they were doing.
In a career high 475 plate appearances, Cervelli has hit .301/.377/.403. Among qualified catcher Cervelli is second only to Buster Posey in offense. Cervilli is also second only to Buster Posey in fWAR. Posey is in a class by himself at 5.6 fWAR but Cervelli’s 3.5 is still very good. Only two other catchers–Brian McCann and former Pirate Russell Martin–surpassed the 3.0 fWAR mark.
There were a lot more high profile trades since last season ended. But the Pirates getting Cervelli for lefty reliever Justin Wilson has to rank among the best based on what they gave up. Even though Wilson has been excellent for the Yankees, they got fleeced.
Honorable Mention: Stephen Vogt, Athletics
CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 5: Adam Lind #24 of the Milwaukee Brewers bats against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 5, 2015 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
FIRST BASE – Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers
If you look at the top ten or so players at first base it’s largely a group of veteran players that have shown up on those lists before. But one name you might not have expected coming into the season. In fact, you might not have expected him to play much of first base at all. Prior to this year Adam Lind spent at least half of his time as a designated hitter. But when the Brewers acquired him it was to be their full time first baseman. Again this was met with much skepticism from a large contingent of sports writers and fans.
Adam Lind has done everything required to dispel those doubts unless those skeptics just weren’t paying attention. Unfortunately for Lind, the Brewers have been terrible and his efforts probably have gone unnoticed. They can try to ignore what the first baseman has done this year but they can’t deny the results.
After hearing about his back and foot issues and the amount of time he’s spent as DH I fully expected Lind to be a disaster in the field. Instead he’s actually been a positive defender. He has a +4 DRS (defensive runs saved) and a +3.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating). That ties Lind for 7th among first basemen in DRS and 8th in UZR. By FanGraphs’ defensive metric (DEF) he ranks 6th. That’s right, by objective measurements Adam Lind has been a top 10 defensive first baseman this year among qualified players.
His offense has been good too. In 545 plate appearances, he has hit .287/.371/.480 with 20 home runs. That’s good for a 126 wRC+. That wRC+ ranks 10th among qualified first basemen. The number of plate appearances is impressive too. He just passed his 2011 total, and will end up with the third-most plate appearances in his career. All of that coming as an active fielder instead of a designated hitter. Impressive.
Honorable Mention(s): Mark Teixeira (Yankees), Mitch Moreland (Rangers)
PHOENIX, AZ – SEPTEMBER 09: Infielder Joe Panik #12 of the San Francisco Giants fields a ground ball out against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the MLB game at Chase Field on September 9, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants 2-1. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
SECOND BASE – Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants
Unfortunately for our second base pick, his season has come to an painful ending thanks to a back injury. But that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been a stand out at his position. Coming into this year, second base was looked at as something of a weak point for the Giants. Panik had just 287 plate appearances at the major league level and he was pretty average (108 wRC+). Average isn’t bad but the returning World Series champions were probably hoping for more. And more is certainly what they got.
In 432 plate appearances he hit .312/.378/.455. That was a good deal better than last year and quite a bit better than average. His slash line converts to a 137 wRC+, which is far and away the best mark by any qualified second baseman in all of baseball.
Panik’s 4.2 fWAR ties for 3rd among qualified second baseman with Dee Gordon. Above them are only Ian Kinsler (4.3 fWAR) and Jason Kipnis (4.8). The four best second baseman this year were three veteran players and Joe Panik. Not too shabby for a guy that looked to be just a solid average player.
Honorable Mention(s): DJ LeMahieu (Rockies), Rougned Odor (Rangers)
CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 22: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs watches his two run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the third inning at Wrigley Field on September 22, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. The blast was Bryant’s 25th of the season, breaking Hall of Famer Billy Williams’s rookie home run record set in 1961. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
THIRD BASE – Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Third base had a bumper crop of new talent this year but the clear standout player is rookie superstar Kris Bryant. Josh Donaldson (8.2 fWAR) and Manny Machado (6.5) lead baseball in fWAR at the position but Kris Bryant is a strong third (5.9) which is good for tops at the position in the National League.
One could argue it’s not exactly fair to include Bryant on a list of breakouts considering everyone in baseball has been writing about how great he is since he’s been drafted. I can understand that perspective. I considered it myself. But perception isn’t reality when it comes to actual on-field production. It’s also one thing to dominate the minors and another to crush at the major league level. Kris Bryant is proving he’s the real deal but he did still have to prove it.
In 610 PA he’s hit .276/.369/.501 with 26 home runs. That’s impressive in and of itself but remember that the Cubs held him back a couple of weeks for service time reasons. Bryant’s 138 wRC+ is second best among third basemen behind Josh Donaldson’s 156. If Bryant can stay at 3B going forward (and so far there’s no reason to think he can’t), then the Cubs have a bona fide superstar on their hands.
Honorable Mention(s): Justin Turner (Dodgers), Jung-ho Kang (Pirates), Matt Duffy (Giants)
BOSTON, MA – AUGUST 1: Xander Bogaerts #2 of the Boston Red Sox watches his two-run double in the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on August 1, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
SHORTSTOP – Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Xander Bogaerts is a great defense for my selection of Kris Bryant. Bogaerts was another highly rated prospect coming up through the minors and when it was finally his time to break into the majors…he kind of stunk. Last year was his first full season. He hit .240/.297/.362 and was worth 0.3 fWAR. Of course as usual there were tons of baseball fans that wrote him off entirely, which was stupid. Baseball is hard and Major League Baseball is the highest level in the world. It’s not uncommon for even the best players to struggle in their first exposure.
Jump to today, and Bogaerts has arguably been the best shortstop in baseball this year. His 4.5 fWAR is the best mark by a shortstop though he has spent some time at third base. Unlike a player such as Jung-ho Kang though, the vast majority of his playing time comes at SS. Brandon Crawford’s 4.3 fWAR all coming at SS gives him an argument for best at the position. But Kang (3.9) at third place is still a ways off and he spent a lot more time at third base. Next is Adeiny Hechavarria (2.9) and now we’re talking about several magnitudes of separation.
Honorable Mention(s): Jung-ho Kang (Pirates), Addison Russell (Cubs), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Didi Gregorius (Yankees)
PHOENIX, AZ – SEPTEMBER 11: David Peralta #6 of the Arizona Diamondbacks stands in the dugout before the MLB game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field on September 11, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
LEFT FIELD – David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks
I’ll be honest with you. Coming into this season, I’m not sure I had even heard of David Peralta. The 28 year old got his first taste of the majors last year he was actually pretty solid. But a 27 year old first reaching the majors and hitting .286/.320/.450 (110 wRC+) doesn’t tend to turn a lot of heads. This year he’s definitely making a better impression.
He’s in the top 5 at his position in fWAR (3.2). He’s also hitting .310/.366/.513, which is worth 134 wRC+. That’s good for 3rd best among qualified left fielders. If anyone told you they saw that coming they’re lying or they’re David Peralta’s parents. It’s great for Peralta and great for the rebuilding Diamondbacks who seem to have found a diamond in the rough.
Honorable Mention(s): Chris Coglan (Cubs), Gerardo Parra (Brewers/Orioles)
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 09: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox looks on from second during the third inning at Fenway Park on September 9, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
CENTER FIELD – Mookie Betts, Red Sox
I had a really hard time picking the standout here and it’s almost a three-way tie between Betts, Kiermaier, and Pollock. In the end I went with Betts because the other two are having amazing seasons but they’ve been good in the past. This is just Betts second year at the major league level and last year he was good but it was a small sample size.
He did hit .291/.368/.444 in just 213 plate appearances. This year he has 604 PA under his belt and still hit a solidly above average .293/.340/.469 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. At just 22 years old, he had a chance for a pretty special career.
His 4.3 fWAR is already good for 6th best in baseball among center fielders. If he can add a bit more power Boston could be looking at an annual top 5 CF and 20/20 guy for many years to come.
Honorable Mention(s): Kevin Kiermaier (Rays), AJ Pollock (Diamondbacks)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 15: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals hits a solo home run in the top of the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies on September 15, 2015 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Bryce Harper
RIGHT FIELD – Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I know what you’re thinking, “Bryce Harper can’t be a breakout because he’s had seasons in recent years where he’s been really good.” Okay that’s true and I am technically breaking my own rule. But hear me out – Bryce Harper is having one of the all time best seasons in baseball. It’s not in the top ten or anything but his current 9.7 fWAR ties for the 67th best single season in baseball since 1871! Harper’s 204 wRC+ is currently the 28th-best mark in baseball history.
That 204 wRC+ puts Bryce Harper in a class entirely separated from rest of baseball this season. Not just right fielders either. All of baseball. The closest right fielder is Nelson Cruz (164 wRC+) and in all of baseball Joey Votto is second with a 177 wRC+. Bryce Harper has been nearly 30% better than the next best hitter in baseball. That’s absolutely insane. It doesn’t matter that Harper has been good in the past. He’s still having a breakout season because he’s having a historic season.
And as a sidenote, if anyone tries to tell you that anyone else deserves the NL MVP what they’re really telling you is that they’re either writing for page clicks or they don’t know what they’re talking about.
HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 21: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Minute Maid Park on September 21, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
PITCHER – Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
A number of different pitchers could put claim to this honor but I went with Dallas Keuchel because no one really knew what to expect from him this year. He did have a very good season last year with a 2.93 ERA and a 3.8 fWAR. But with a 5.15 ERA and 1.1 fWAR season and not much of a track record in the minors, it was fair to ask if last year was a bit of a fluke. Not only did Keuchel prove it wasn’t a fluke, he’s far surpassed himself.
He may or may not actually win the American League Cy Young award but I think he’s done enough to put himself in that discussion. He has a 2.51 ERA, 2.90 FIP, and a 5.8 fWAR. That’s third best in the American League after David Price (6.3 fWAR) and Chris Sale (6.0 fWAR).
He was good last year but he was nowhere near this good. Since he still had to prove that last year was a fluke, by performing like a possible Cy Young award winning qualifies him for breakout pitcher of the year in my estimation.
Honorable Mention – Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Steven Matz (Mets), Taylor Jungmann (Brewers), Lance McCullers (Astros), Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Ken Giles (Phillies)
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
