We’re less than two weeks away from the beginning of the 2015 Postseason. So far, only two teams have clinched spots – the Cardinals and Pirates, one of whom (or hell, maybe even both if the Cubs go on a ridiculous winning streak) will be forced to play in the NL Wild Card game. But we can make some general claims about the other playoff teams – the Royals and Cubs are just about locks, while the Dodgers, Mets, Blue Jays, and Yankees all look like safe bets.
All of this teams have players with injury issues that could have a drastic impact on the 2015 playoffs. Here are five of the most crucial.
Zack Greinke, Dodgers – calf. Greinke missed his start on Wednesday against the Diamondbacks with a sore calf. He’s not expected to miss more than the one start. But if the injury ends up more serious than it is, the Dodgers could be in for a rough time in the NLDS, presumably in a matchup with the Mets. They still have Clayton Kershaw leading their rotation, but the dropoff from Greinke to Brett Anderson or Alex Wood is massive. Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers in 2015, pitching to a 3.52 ERA in 168 2/3 innings, but he’s been hot, cold, and injury-prone throughout his career. As for Wood, he had a good run in 2014 and 2014 with the Braves, but he’s struggled this season, and especially since the Braves traded him to Los Angeles in July. As a Dodger, Wood has alternated good starts with poor ones, notching a 3.60 ERA in 58 innings while striking out 44 and walking 20.
Without that Kershaw-Greinke 1-2 pitch, the Dodgers could be looking at another first round exit this season, and that could possibly cost Don Mattingly his job.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 19: Matt Harvey #33 of the New York Mets looks on from the dugout in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees during interleague play on September 19, 2015 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Matt Harvey, Mets – elbow. The Matt Harvey elbow saga isn’t coming to an end any time soon, unfortunately – especially after Terry Collins’ spirited rant on Monday after pulling Harvey following a brilliant five inning stint with the Yankees. The Mets are expected to take it easy with Harvey heading into the playoffs, and might even shut him down before he gets there if Harvey’s elbow starts barking. That wouldn’t be good news for the Mets, despite their cadre of young pitching. Steven Matz returned to the rotation at the beginning of the month following a two-month DL stint, and his health remains a question. Jacob deGrom has been excellent in his sophomore season, pitching to a 2.64 ERA, 189 strikeouts, and just 33 walks in 181 innings, but there are concerns about his production after deGrom allowed six earned runs in two of his last five starts.
If the Mets can make it past (again, assuming here) the Dodgers in the NLDS, the paramount need for a fourth starter in the NLCS could result in Jon Niese getting reps if Harvey is shut down, which isn’t a good thing for New York. The Mets will need to keep their fingers crossed on Harvey, hope deGrom’s struggles are behind him, and wrap Matz in bubble wrap over the next two weeks – and that doesn’t even take Bartolo Colon and Noah Syndergaard into consideration, who have been excellent as of late.
KANSAS CITY, MO – AUGUST 14: Greg Holland #56 of the Kansas City Royals throws in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Kauffman Stadium on August 14, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Greg Holland, Royals – elbow. Yeah, Holland is “just a reliever”, but surely you don’t forget how Kansas City’s bullpen dragged them to within one win of a World Championship last fall, right? This year, the Royals’ bullpen has arguably been *more* crucial to their success than last year, if only because the rotation has been much worse (4.46 ERA in 2015 compared to 3.60 ERA in 2014). The relief core has dropped their ERA to 2.69 from 3.30, and everything looks grand…well, except for the fact that their closer has lost his job to dominant setup man Wade Davis, has already spent time on the DL this season, *and* is currently resting his sore elbow.
Losing Holland means that the hydra of Holland, Davis, and Kelvin Herrera has lost one of its heads. Multiple other heads have naturally sprung up in Holland’s place, including Ryan Madson and Franklin Morales. But those two are both one inning relievers, and given the struggles of Kansas City’s rotation, they might need other relievers to soak up multiple innings this October – and Brandon Finnegan is now a Red. The Royals also don’t really have any starts they can move to a relief role, considering Jeremy Guthrie and Chris Young have both been shredded in both relief and starting roles. It’s not going to be a paint by numbers bullpen for Ned Yost this season.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 12: Troy Tulowitzki #2 of the Toronto Blue Jays is tended to by team personnel after colliding with a teammate while making a catch for the final out of the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 12, 2015 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Troy Tulowitzki, Blue Jays – shoulder. The Blue Jays were 81-60 on September 12th when Tulowitzki left their game against the Yankees after colliding with Kevin Pillar. The injury was later revealed to be a fractured scapula (shoulder blade), and Tulowitzki hasn’t played since….though the Jays are constantly monitoring his health, hoping he can return for the playoffs. Toronto is 6-5 since he got hurt and are still atop the AL East with Ryan Goins playing shortstop in place of Tulowitzki. And while Goins is a fine fielder, he’s nowhere near the hitter that Tulowitzki is – for the year, he’s hitting .246/.319/.347 with five home runs. Since Tulowitzki got hurt, he’s hitting .275/.362/.325. Tulowitzki is in the midst of a “down season”, and is still hitting .278/.337/.437 with 17 homers.
With Tulowitzki in the lineup every day at shortstop, the Jays are simply a better team – not because it moves Goins off shortstop, but because he also bumps Cliff Pennington (.205/.287/.272 this year between Arizona and Toronto) out of the lineup. There’s a massive difference offensively between the players, and if Tulowitzki’s shoulder is good to go, Toronto has a much better shot of winning the World Series.
ST. LOUIS, MO – JULY 4: Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals sits in the dugout with teammates during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium on July 4, 2015 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images)
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals – Achilles. Wainwright’s been out since the end of April with a torn Achilles….but could he POSSIBLY return for the playoffs? It’s not a stretch – Wainwright was cleared for baseball activities this week, and could make an impact on the Cardinals pitching staff in October. Wainwright likely won’t be able to handle a full load in the rotation for the Cardinals, and he probably won’t need to given the great years turned in by John Lackey, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, and Michael Wacha, but imagine him sliding into that bullpen like he did when the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series.
St. Louis doesn’t really need any more relief help, but adding him to the lockdown duo of Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist would be a huge advantage for Mike Matheny and company.
