The Cinderella story that didn’t happen, many writers picked the White Sox to finish near the top of the AL Central with some even picking them as a dark horse for the World Series. Of course, not all fantasies can come true and the reality of the Kansas City Royals was just part of the reasons Chicago saw an early exit from contention.
Preseason Prediction: The White Sox are in a similar situation to that of their crosstown “rivals”, the Chicago Cubs, in that they’ve improved substantially, but they still play in a division that’s going to make it tough for them to grab the top spot. Detroit is likely still the class of the division, though the field has caught up. Cleveland is going to be in the mix. Kansas City, while a regression is expected, is still coming off of a World Series appearance. Minnesota will be better.
With that said, this White Sox team can still contend. Provided their pitching stays healthy, they certainly have the arms to do it. Samardzija, Sale, and Quintana, the latter of which flies under the radar as one of the league’s higher quality mid-rotation arms, is a formidable group, not to mention when you get somebody with the stuff Rodon has at the backend. The bullpen has improved by leaps and bounds, just purely based off of the winter additions. The offense is still suspect (they were a middle-of-the-road group last year), and what they can produce as a group will definitely overshadow the individual parts (with the exception of Jose Abreu) simply because there aren’t a lot of impact bats to go around. Nonetheless, this team should still find itself in good position with quality pitching and average offense, and could definition be in the mix for a wild card spot when it’s all said and done. (Randy Holt, March 17th)
What Went Right: Quite a bit. The three hitters that have consistently performed for Chicago all season, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu and Melky Cabrera, were among the best in the league offensively at their positions. David Robertson has been as effective of a closer as any team below .500 could dream of, and their starting rotation features the best left-handed pitcher in baseball, Chris Sale, along with the pitcher who could be the next great left-hander, Carlos Rodon, and one more great left-hander, Jose Quintana, just for good measure.
CHICAGO, IL – JULY 08: Adam LaRoche #25 of the Chicago White Sox hits a two-run double in the 1st inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S. Cellular Field on July 8, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: In a rotation made of 4/5ths lefties, the White Sox made the mistake of trading for a righty last offseason. Jeff Samardzija has been as close to a guaranteed loss every time out, despite his near $10M price tag. In fact, the big additions made during last off-season were almost all complete flops as Adam LaRoche was paid $13M for his -1.3 WAR and Cabrera $13M for his 0.0 WAR. While Robertson was a good pick up, the rest of the bullpen was lackluster, particularly 2015 pick up Dan Jennings (4.08 ERA in 49 games) and White Sox product Jake Petricka (3.71 ERA in 61 games).
Outside of the newcomers, the White Sox didn’t get the production they expected from a few returning members especially Alexei Ramirez, Avasail Garcia, and Gordon Beckham. Of these, Ramirez was the biggest surprise as he batted just .224 in the first half and even a strong second half hasn’t done much to change that. Because of their poor play and the White Sox near-enough contention for the second Wild Card in July, they were unwilling or unable to unload their upcoming free agents Beckham, Ramirez, and Samardzija.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 25: Carlos Rodon #55 of the Chicago White Sox pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 25, 2015 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: It’s debatable how surprising a third overall draft pick can be, but the fact that Rodon made just eight minor league starts before his MLB debut this year is incredible. He played three games in the bullpen after being called up in late April, but quickly joined the rotation and hasn’t looked much like a rookie, dominating opponents with 139 strikeouts in 139.1 innings and a 3.75 ERA. The White Sox expected and got great seasons from Sale and Quintana, but adding a third lights out left-hander just isn’t fair.
It is unfortunate for Rodon that he has gone largely under the radar this year thanks to what could possibly be the greatest rookie class in MLB history. He ranks third among AL rookie pitchers in WAR behind Trevor May and Lance McCullers and sits behind five rookie hitters as well, including Francisco Lindor who leads all with 4.0. While this will likely keep him away from any award recognition, it may be better for his ultimate development to stay as hidden as possible while he can.
CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 24: Jeff Samardzija #29 of the Chicago White Sox pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at U.S. Cellular Field on August 24, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: The most disappointing player for the Sox has to be the one with the highest expectations and the lowest actual production, Samardzija. He leads the league in runs and hits allowed and the White Sox keep trotting him out every five days because they have no other real option. In addition to the economic cost mentioned earlier, the Shark also cost Chicago Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, and Marcus Semien, who went to the A’s last December. While the two hitters might not have made a huge difference on the current White Sox roster, Bassitt and his 3.07 ERA in 11 starts (and five relief appearances) definitely could have.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 25: Alexei Ramirez #10 of the Chicago White Sox reacts after tagging up at second base in the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 25, 2015 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
The Future: The White Sox have learned the mistake of trying to jump into contention too soon and it cost them quite a bit in money, prospects, and evaluating the next class. First they have to decide whether or not to exercise Ramirez’s $10M option and whether or not they will try to move a couple other big contracts like LaRoche and John Danks.
The positive for the Sox is that there was a reason they were a Dark Horse this year and they should be even more legitimate contenders. Jose Abreu proved his rookie campaign wasn’t a fluke by batting .298/.347/.503 and is under contract through 2019. Exciting lead-off man Adam Eaton is extremely cost effective through 2020 and, although he isn’t the best defensively in center (-14 DRS), he more than makes up for that on offense. In the rotation, Quintana and Sale are signed extremely cheaply for their ability through 2018 (2019 for Quintana) while Rodon won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2018 depending on his Super 2 status (he probably will qualify for a fourth year of arbitration).
In whole, the White Sox have done a great job building from within and by using the international market to create a very low cost, high ceiling team. They made their mistakes through free agency and trades last offseason and compounded that by not partially blowing things up this July and turning players who won’t be White Sox in 2016 into new prospects. This was certainly a step back, but the White Sox are still in great position to at least compete in the extremely deep AL Central next season.
