The next general manager of the Seattle Mariners has a considerable job ahead of him. Jack Zduriencik created quite a mess to clean up, constructing a roster of parts that didn’t fit together cohesively, nor provide the necessary offense for the Mariners to compete in the AL West. That exacerbated the problem of top prospects who never developed into stars, such as Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero. Despite several offseason moves that prompted some to pick the Mariners to win the AL West, there were ultimately just too many holes to fill.
Assistant GM Jeff Kingston has taken over on an interim basis for the rest of the season, and it sounds unlikely that he’ll be promoted to the top job. Team president Kevin Mather has made it rather clear that he doesn’t have the patience for a new GM to learn on the job, so an experienced executive will almost certainly be hired. (By the way, of the prospective choices that have been mentioned, I think Ben Cherington would be the best pick, considering he had to undertake a similar project in Boston.)
So what lies ahead for the Mariners’ new general manager? Here are four issues that need to be addressed for next season and beyond:
CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 29: on August 29, 2015 at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
Get some actual outfielders
One of Zduriencik’s primary problems during the past three seasons was his tendency to sign the same sort of player, guys more suited to first base or designated hitter duty, and put them in a corner outfield position. Logan Morrison, Corey Hart, Seth Smith, Mark Trumbo and Nelson Cruz were all acquired in the hopes of boosting the Mariners’ offense. But the defense suffered terribly by putting four DHs on the field at once. No AL team has surrendered more Defensive Runs Saved than Seattle’s -30 total.
As an actual outfielder who could play center field, I would have argued for keeping Austin Jackson. But clearly, the Mariners weren’t interested in bringing him back after a disappointing season. The market for free agent center fielders is full of aging, underperforming players (though Denard Span might be an intriguing fit), so it appears that the plan is to move Brad Miller to center field. With his .708 OPS this season, his bat probably plays better there than in left field. And with four more years of club control, Seattle has a younger, cheaper player on hand that allows the team to devote resources toward filling a corner outfield position.
The new GM would be selling low on Mark Trumbo and Seth Smith, but brooming them out in favor of players who can actually play defense would be a start. It’s not like either hitter contributes enough offense to make up for their defensive shortcomings. Smith is owed $7 million next year (including a $250,000 buyout for 2017), while Trumbo has one more year of arbitration eligibility and will probably get a raise from his $6.9 million salary. Those aren’t outrageous contracts to move and clubs looking for power — even NL teams — might be interested in such lower-market salaries.
Rebuild the bullpen
Fernando Rodney falling off the table was an issue the Mariners could never overcome this season, even if the roster had many more glaring issues to address. Signing free agent closers is a bad way to build a bullpen, and there are only two of note (Santiago Casilla and Joakim Soria) on the market anyway. Seattle has two cost-controlled arms for its late-inning relief corps with Carson Smith and Tom Wilhelmsen, but needs depth behind them.
This might be the best place for the new GM to spend his free agent dollars, picking up relievers who might be willing to sign one-year deals to rebuild their value. David Hernandez, Bobby Parnell and Joba Chamberlain could be among the possibilities.
SEATTLE, WA – AUGUST 24: Starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma #18 of the Seattle Mariners looks on from the dugout after being removed from the game in the fifth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Safeco Field on August 24, 2015 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Create payroll flexibility
According to USA Today, the Mariners had a $123 million opening day payroll, ranking No. 11 among MLB clubs. Needless to say, Seattle haven’t extracted full value from that payroll, currently holding the third-worst record in the AL with last place in the AL West still within reach.
But this is where it gets tricky for the Mariners. Does ownership intend to compete during the four-year window during which Felix Hernandez is still under contract? (After Zduriencik’s dismissal, team president Kevin Mather expressed his belief that the roster’s core is close to contention.) If so, rebuilding isn’t really an option. Yet with a thin farm system (ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Seattle 21st among the 30 MLB teams), there won’t be much help on the way, nor pieces to trade for more immediate help.
If the idea is to contend, the presumption is that ownership isn’t looking to trim much of that $123 million figure. Yet even if that figure holds — or even increases a bit — Seattle has to create some payroll flexibility. We already mentioned trading Trumbo and Smith, which would trim approximately $16 million off next year’s roster. The salaries of Austin Jackson, Fernando Rodney and Hisashi Iwakuma coming off the books also provides some room.
With the lack of proven arms in the rotation, Iwakuma should perhaps be re-signed. Though with young starters like James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and Mike Montgomery on hand, it would be more cost-effective to let Iwakuma go and use his salary to help other spots on the team. Altogether, that might create enough flexibility to pursue an impact corner outfielder like a Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward or Alex Gordon.
SEATTLE, WA – AUGUST 26: Nelson Cruz #23 of the Seattle Mariners is congratulated by starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 after hitting a solo home run against the Oakland Athletics in the eighth inning at Safeco Field on August 26, 2015 in Seattle, Washington. The Mariners defeated the White Sox 8-2. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Trade a big contract
But will sanding the pricier edges off the 2016 budget allow the Mariners to make enough big moves? Three big contracts take up the majority of the Seattle payroll: Hernandez is owed $103 million over the next four years, Cruz is down for $42 million through 2018 and Robinson Cano’s ridiculous contract saddles the team with an eight-year, $192 million obligation. (Kyle Seager signed a seven-year, $100 million contract after last season, but it doesn’t begin to get expensive until 2018.) Though it might seem contradictory to the goal of contending next season, the new GM should strongly consider dealing one of those contracts.
Trading Cano’s load of a deal isn’t an option. While there is no such thing as an untradeable contract, Cano’s has to be close — especially when he’ll be 33 next season and his skills appear to be diminishing. With a .283 average, .763 OPS, 31 doubles and 14 home runs, his numbers are respectable. But Cano is paid like a superstar and if he’s not providing superstar production, no team will be interested in taking on his salary — even one that plays in a ballpark where his left-handed swing might result in more power.
Cruz’s contract is not outrageous, though he’s more suited to DH than the outfield, which limits his trade market. Maybe there are still lingering doubts as to how legitimate his production is, two years removed from his PED-related suspension. But the assumption was that Cruz’s power numbers would drop going from Camden Yards to Safeco Field, yet he’s going to hit 40 home runs again. Though he will turn 36 years old next season, Cruz is a true slugger and his $14 million annual salary is a relative bargain for that kind of run production.
The true dilemma is Hernandez. Trading him while still hoping to contend seems ludicrous on the surface. How can the Mariners compete in the AL West and wild-card races without an ace at the top of their rotation? But Seattle’s next GM has to consider the possibility.
What could the team get in return for one of the AL’s best pitchers, under contract for four more years and for less overall money than the likes of a David Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto? Would the Mariners be able to get a top-of-the-rotation starter, plug an outfield hole and infuse the minor league system with young talent for King Felix? If each of those boxes can be checked off, the benefits for the short- and long-term prosperity of the team likely outweigh the risks, even if it would be a tough sell with Seattle fans.
