The Cardinals have long been the favorites to win the NL Central. They entered the season as the presumed favorites and certainly haven’t disappointed. Even now, they possess a healthy 4.5 game lead on the second place Pirates. But healthy isn’t the same as insurmountable, and if any team has a chance of knocking down the Cards, it’s Pittsburgh.
On the season. the Pirates offense is tied for 6th in baseball with two other teams (Astros, Royals), with a 100 wRC+. The only National League team that’s been better is the Giants. The Cardinals on the other hand are tied with two other teams (Diamondbacks, Athletics) at 15th with a 96 wRC+.
Things skew even more favorably towards the Pirates in recent weeks. Over the last 30 days the Pirates have had the 5th most effective offense in baseball with a 121 wRC+. Conversely, the Cardinals have experienced a drop-off in production. They’re all the way down at 21st overall with a 94 wRC+.
We can’t just focus on offense though. We have to look at pitching too and this is where the Cardinals have had an advantage. According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals rotation leads all of baseball with a 14.4 fWAR (2.82 ERA, 3.32 FIP). The Pirates are still in the top ten though. They’re ranked 7th with a 12.6 fWAR (3.47 ERA, 3.36 FIP). By FIP they’ve been about the same, but the results (ERA) have favored the Cardinals by a lot so far.
The Cardinals bullpen (12.6 K%-BB%, 1.24 WHIP, 0.56 HR/9, 2.35 ERA, 3.33 FIP) has been slightly more effective than the Pirates’ (13.6 K%-BB%, 1.19 WHIP, 0.71 HR/9, 2.57 ERA, 3.53 FIP) as well, but it’s close. It’s interesting to note the Pirates have a better WHIP and strikeout to walk ratio. They’ve given up more home runs though, which seems to be the issue. But it’s not a bad HR/9. Keep in mind, we’re talking about two of the best teams in baseball.
When we look at the last 30 days, we see similar positions with their rotations. The Cardinals (2.86 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 2.8 fWAR) are still better than the Pirates (4.34 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 2.4 fWAR). The Cardinals starters remain consistent, while the Pirates starters have been a good deal worse. However, judging by FIP, they’ve may have been pretty unlucky. It’s actually quite incredible the two teams have had the exact same FIP over this time period.
That’s not the case when we look to the bullpen. Here, the Pirates (12.8 K%-BB%, 1.21 WHIP, 0.37 HR/9, 2.41 ERA, 3.13 FIP) take a slight advantage over the Cardinals (11.8 K%-BB%, 1.10 WHIP, 0.47 HR/9, 2.48 ERA, 3.35 FIP). The margin of difference here is razor thin and again we see the team with the better home run rate win out.
There is one area where the Cardinals consistently and significantly outpace the Pirates: Defense. As a team the Cardinals have a +18 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). That’s the 8th best mark in baseball. The Pirates have received a -7 DRS from their defense (17th). This could be one reason why the Pirates have a higher ERA than the Cardinals despite the two teams having similar FIP.
With just under 40 games left in the season the Pirates have put themselves in a position to make the playoffs. The only question in my mind is if they’re going in as a Wild Card team or the division leader. It’s something of a tall order to make up 4.5 games this late in the season but the two teams will face each other 6 more times. The Pirates appear to be heating up at the right time too. So it is far from an unobtainable goal. They appear to have the pitching and offense to succeed. I think it might come down to their defense’s impact on runs allowed.
If I had to guess I’d say the Cardinals win the division, but it’s a close call. At the very least St. Louis doesn’t have a safe lead and that should make things interesting down to the final week of games.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
