In 2014, the Atlanta Braves offense was a horror show. For the year, they hit just .241/.305/.360. The club’s .296 wOBA was fourth-worst in baseball (ahead of just the Phillies, Reds, and Padres), and their 87 wRC+ was fifth-worst (ahead of those three aforementioned teams and the Arizona Diamondbacks). They scored just 573 runs, the second-lowest total in baseball. The main culprit for those struggles, according to beat writers and some fans? The team struck out too much. 22.6% of the team’s plate appearances ended with a K, fourth-most in baseball, behind the Cubs, Astros, and Marlins. Atlanta also swung and missed at 11.5% of pitches, the highest mark in baseball.
This winter, that team was dismantled. The entire starting outfield was replaced. Starting catcher (in name only, since he was immediately converted to a full-time outfielder/DH after the trade) Evan Gattis was shipped to the Astros. The only holdovers from the 2014 offense were first baseman Freddie Freeman, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, and third baseman Chris Johnson (and only because no one would take Johnson off the Braves’ hands until Cleveland did them a favor in August). With a whole new offense and a whole new focus, everything would be different, right?
Well, not really. The team’s whiff rate has dropped all the way to 8.7%, higher than just five teams (Royals, Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Athletics). Their strikeout rate has fallen to 18.3%, a mark bested by only the Athletics, Red Sox, and Royals.
But the offense is still bad. Atlanta’s 85 wRC+ is tied with the Brewers and Marlins for the worst in baseball. Their .296 wOBA *is* the worst in baseball. They’ve scored 460 runs, tied with the Rays for the lowest in all of baseball. Their 79 homers are far and away the lowest mark in baseball – only three other teams have hit less than 100 homers, and none of those three are under 90. Last year, the Braves went yard 123 times, tied with Boston for 22nd in baseball. If the Braves hit a homer per game to close out the year, they wouldn’t match that total.
What exactly happened here? The Braves aren’t striking out and aren’t swinging and missing, but the offense is still awful? I was told that was impossible!
It comes down to contact. The Braves offense is making more contact this season – 80.9% compared to 76.1% a year ago, going to the top five in the league from the bottom five. But it’s not GOOD contact. The team’s soft-hit rate has gone from 18.3% (15th in baseball, middle of the pack) to 19.7% (third-highest in baseball). Their hard-hit rate has gone from 29.7% (11th-best in baseball) to 25.1% (second-worst in baseball).
(if you’re not familiar with quality of contact stats, here’s a brief primer. Long story short – harder hit balls generally result in a higher average, and softer hit balls generally result in a lower average)
The Braves are also hitting into more double plays this season, something that was being dismissed last year when the team’s propensity to strike out was being discussed. In 2014, the Braves grounded into 121 double plays, tied with the Rockies for the 14th-most in baseball. This year, they’ve already notched 104 twin killings, the seventh-most in baseball (and just a stone’s throw away from second-most, too).
ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 16: Jace Peterson #8 of the Atlanta Braves is tagged out on a stolen base attempt by Nick Ahmed #13 of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second inning at Turner Field on August 16, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
And just for the hell of it, the Braves aren’t doing much when they actually get on base. The team stole 95 bases last year and have swiped 60 this year, ranking 16th a year ago and 18th this year. But their success rate has plummeted – last year, they were successful in 74.2% of attempts, tenth-best in baseball. This year, their success rate has dropped to a staggering 67.42% – 21st in baseball. The league average usually hovers somewhere around 70-72%.
If there’s good news coming out of this situation, it’s this – many of the players getting significant playing time for the Braves this year are placeholders and not long-term building blocks. But that doesn’t mean the building blocks are just getting dragged down. Simmons has posted the highest soft hit and lowest hard hit rates of his career, but is walking at a career-high rate and striking out at a career-low rate. Freeman’s played in just 82 games while dealing with injuries, but is having a down year with the stick, walking and striking out at his worst rates since his 2011 rookie season despite the rest of his underlying stats looking OK.
Rookie catcher Christian Bethancourt has been a disaster, and lost most of his playing time to veteran AJ Pierzynski. Rookie second baseman Jace Peterson, perhaps considered a future core player, has been a disaster at the plate in three of the five months of 2015. Veterans Pierzynski, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson all hit quite well, but two are already playing elsewhere while Pierzynski could end up somewhere else in either September or in 2016.
Atlanta did go about their rebuild the right way. They dumped almost everything of value, and restocked their barren farm system in the process. But Atlanta has made their bed by focusing on Freeman, Simmons, Cuban third baseman Hector Olivera (acquired from the Dodgers in the Alex Wood trade), and to a lesser extent, Nick Markakis as their core for the next few seasons. If Simmons remains an elite defender with a nonexistent bat, Freeman never truly makes that leap into Anthony Rizzo/Paul Goldschmidt territory, and Olivera isn’t the player that the Braves thought he was, what’s really left with this offense going forward? There aren’t any fallback options here.
As a Braves fan, that’s what would scare me the most about the 2015 offense – no core players have taken steps forward, and the offense is just as bad despite a drastic change in philosophy. That’s not a good thing.
