The AL Wild Card race has been close all season (unlike some other less exciting Wild Card races in baseball this year), but thanks to a busy trade deadline, it appears some teams may finally be separating from the crowd.
While the Blue Jays are the obvious reflection of that statement, winning eight games in a row and vaulting from three games out of the second Wild Card, behind five teams, to the leader position in the first Wild Card since picking up Troy Tulowitzki on July 28th, they are not the only team to have changed significantly. There are still ten teams within eight games of a Wild Card spot (compared to just five in the NL), but most of these teams have now given up on the season.
The Tigers sold David Price and Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline in addition to firing GM Dave Dombrowski. The Twins are on a 2-8 run and look much more like the team we expected them to be all year. The White Sox and Mariners were quiet at the deadline, but also seem to have let reality set in that there are simply too many teams in front. While any of these teams could pull off some miraculous winning streak to get them back in the discussion, it is fair to ignore them for the moment.
This brings it down to the top five, all of whom are within four games of the postseason. Making this even more interesting is the fact that only the Royals have a stranglehold on the division, meaning that any one of the group could technically be pushed out of contention as well over the next two months.
The most likely team that could fall victim to this situation is the Yankees, fresh off a three game sweep at the hands of Toronto, who now sit just 1.5 games behind in the East. It may not be inevitable, but the Yankees have been depending on a combination of elderly players (Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia are 35, Alex Rodriguez 40) and extremely young ones (including top prospect Luis Severino, making his second start Tuesday night) and it is much less likely to maintain than the Blue Jays’ newly created juggernaut.
The Yankees and Blue Jays play three more games this month then seven in September, well more than enough to move Toronto into first and possibly enough to push New York out of the race entirely. The question then remains whether or not the Rays, Orioles, and Rangers could take advantage.
With the best pitching in the group and one of the best starting staffs in baseball, the Rays are a very interesting team in this argument. While the trek won’t be easy, the path has been laid out and they at least have had some success against the less powerful version of the Blue Jays (8-5). Next up, they have six games with the contending Astros and Rangers and a nine game stretch from August 28th through September 6th against the Royals (0-3 so far in 2015), Orioles (5-7) and Yankees (5-8) that could likely determine their fate. Making up four games against one team is hard enough, although possible for a team like Tampa. Making up four games while keeping back two other teams will be particularly difficult, but at least it will be in their hands, rather than others. After that stretch they have 13 more games in September against their three primary AL East foes. If they can survive the first set, the second will determine the victor of at least one Wild Card spot.
The other side of the Wild Card is in the West with Houston (AL West leaders), Los Angeles (second Wild Card leader), and Texas all in the mix. All season the Astros have seemed the strongest team of the three, featuring great starting pitching, good defense, and plenty of power throughout their whole lineup (who pegged Luis Valbeuna as a 20 home run guy this year?). Despite this, they no longer have a commanding lead in the division and the Angels, led by a resurgent Albert Pujols, have been putting the pressure on.
While not a cake walk, the Astros do have a fairly easy schedule down the stretch with 24 games against sub-.500 teams. If the Twins continue to roll over, the Astros should be particularly fortunate to have all six of their games together in the second half rather than the first when they still had dark horse dreams. While they have lost five of their last six, Houton has been a streaky team all season, going 11-4 in their previous 15, 1-9 in the ten before that coming off of a six game winning streak.
The Astros’ streakiness can largely be blamed on their go big or go home offense, something that could cost them in a one game playoff more-so than a five or seven game series. Over the stretch of the final two months, that may not be enough to contend with the Angels, who have the superior pitching staff on paper and more consistent contributing players on offense. Based off recent trends, the AL Wild Card race could very well come down to teams currently not involved, the Yankees and Astros, rather than the current leaders.
This is further bad news for those on the outside, the Orioles, Rays and Rangers. Each of the AL East teams can now add two more games back when looking at the Yankees instead of the Blue Jays and the Rangers can add another half game. This continues to show the difficulty in surpassing so many teams. If the Jays and Yankees split their games, they could both still win enough to stay ahead of the Orioles and Rays. If one or the other goes on a significant run, it would likely place the division out of reach for anyone else. This is true in the East or West and it makes the race look tighter than ever. While each of the Orioles, Rays, Rangers or even the Twins “could” get back into the race, but they all can’t and one falling off doesn’t particularly help the others.
There is still plenty of baseball left to play, so it isn’t time to back down for any of these teams. In fact, it is time to buckle down. Because of the unbalanced schedule, each team has a chance now to beat those ahead of them and a few sweeps could completely change the picture. Of course, if the Rays had been able to beat the Yankees earlier in the year or the Orioles the Jays, they may be in the top position instead. With few upgrades to these fringe team’s rosters, it’s hard to believe they can change the trend now.
