When April ended. the Mets found themselves on top of their division. They looked like playoff contenders in that early part of the season. But they also looked like a deeply flawed team offensively. I wrote about their poor offense and the threat it posed to their playoff hopes in early May. It was my opinion that if the Mets did nothing to improve their roster they would fall to the wayside. As it turned out, I wasn’t wrong. In every month this season, the Mets have ranked in the bottom third of MLB by wRC+.
Fortunately for Mets fans, the club was not content to wait it out. By the trade deadline, the Mets had acquired Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, Tyler Clippard, and Yoenis Cespedes. This week, they also added lefty specialist Eric O’Flaherty. All of these were good moves that improved the Mets to varying levels. Now we have to ask if they did enough to keep them on track to reach the playoffs.
Johnson and Uribe are solid depth moves. The Mets needed to find someone competent for either second or third base. By picking up these two, they were able to cover both bases. Daniel Murphy is a similarly talented player who is able to play either position. Since the acquisition the Mets have mixed in playing time at the two positions for each player (Uribe being third base only).
On the season, Uribe has a 106 wRC+, Johnson a 108 wRC+, and Murphy a 101 wRC+. That’s not a dominant force, but the main alternatives were Ruben Tejada (94 wRC+) and Eric Campbell (70 wRC+). When you consider what those players (don’t) bring to the plate, even league average must be viewed as significant upgrade.
With Yoenis Cespedes, it doesn’t much matter how you look at it, he’s a significant upgrade. He’s certainly the biggest piece the Mets acquired at the deadline. On the season, Cespedes has hit .294/.324/.504, good for a 125 wRC+. The previous Mets OF regulars were Curtis Granderson (126 wRC+), Michael Cuddyer (94 wRC+), Juan Lagares (72 wRC+). The only other Mets regular with a good wRC+ was Lucas Duda (136).
So Cespedes is undeniably a substantial upgrade offensively. I am concerned about him playing center field. While he’s a plus defender in the corners he’s significantly less effective in CF. The Athletics tried him there when he first came to the majors. In 432 defensive innings there he was worth -8 DRS. They reduced his time there the following season and in 133 defensive innings he was worth -4 DRS. They only let him play 35 defensive inning there last year and exactly ZERO this year.
Cespedes has been a maniac this year. He’s accumulated +4.3 fWAR already with two months left to play. But a large portion of that value has come from his defense in left field (+11 DRS). His 125 wRC+ is pretty good, but it’s also just 41st among qualified hitters. His presence definitely upgrades the Mets, but if he stays in CF that value could be significantly mitigated.
Their offense isn’t the only thing the Mets have upgraded though. Their already solid pitching staff was made all the more impressive with the addition of Noah Syndergaard (and the subtraction of Dillon Gee). Gee was the weakest link in that rotation. He made 7 starts with a 5.92 ERA and 4.01 FIP. Since his call up Syndergaard has made 15 starts with a 2.66 ERA and 2.78 FIP. That gives the Mets three sub-3.00 ERA starters (Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom). Their top three matches up well with any other club.
The Mets are still in a good, if somewhat precarious, position. They’re once again leading their division, now 1.5 games ahead of the Nationals. However, they would be on the outside of the Wild Card race, 1.5 games back of the second WC. They’d also have the Cubs a game ahead of them. It’s not “NL East Champs or bust,” but it’ll be a lot easier to get to the playoffs by winning the division.
But as they’re in first place now nothing that happened before today matters. They can write the season starting now. They have a much improved offense with Yoenis Cespedes, Kelly Johnson, and Juan Uribe. They even improved their pitching staff by replacing Dillon Gee with Noah Syndergaard. Travis d’Arnaud recently came of the DL (again…) and there David Wright might not be far behind.
This is a better team than the Mets had on Opening Day. This is a team in first place of their division. This is a team with as good a chance as any to make it into the playoffs. And unlike we might have thought in May, this is a team that could get there as Division Champs instead of Wild Card hopefuls.
