The Washington Nationals are the preseason champions of baseball for three years running. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, that doesn’t mean anything. Washington missed the playoffs in 2013, won the NL East in 2014 and were drummed out of the playoffs in four games by the Giants, and are a game behind the Mets in the NL East race this season. If the season ended today, the Nationals wouldn’t even claim an NL Wild Card berth (much like they didn’t in 2013) – they’re three games back of a hot Cubs team for the NL’s second Wild Card.
Through 105 games, this Nationals team has been an incredible disappointment. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth have both dealt with injuries, combining to play in just 99 games, and have stunk when actually on the field. The pair has combined to hit .210/.276/.338 with nine homers in those 99 games, all at the cost of “just” $35 million this year. Pending free agent Denard Span has played well, but not frequently – he’s appeared in just 59 games this season. Ian Desmond, another pending free agent, *has* stayed healthy, but hasn’t produced – he’s hitting .214/.261/.354 with 11 homers through 102 games.
Washington’s dream rotation has also struggled past the dominant Max Scherzer. Stephen Strasburg has thrown just 61 innings over 13 starts, and has an ugly 5.16 ERA. Doug Fister has made 15 starts, and his 4.60 ERA isn’t what anyone expected. Jordan Zimmermann has pitched to a 3.54 ERA through 22 starts months before he hits free agency. Gio Gonzalez has made 19 starts, but his 3.75 ERA is his highest since way back in 2009 with the Athletics. Even Tanner Roark, who shined last year, has struggled in six starts, pitching to a 5.61 ERA. in the bullpen, his ERA is a better 3.79, but he’s still allowed a total of 12 homers on the season.
Confidence is still high within this bunch of Nationals players. Werth said the division was still theirs to lose after a 5-4 win over the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.
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Should the team be favored over the Mets over the final two months? It’s a matter of opinion at this point, but I’d probably lean towards a rejuvenated Mets team. But if the Nationals miss the playoffs once again, history won’t remember them as a team that fell victim to plenty of injuries. History will look at them as a team that wasted the greatest season by a player in the decade since the team moved from Montreal. History will, unfairly or not, look at them as chokers – a super team that won three playoff games over four seasons.
No matter what happens this year, the Nationals will look different next year. As mentioned earlier, Zimmermann, Span, and Desmond are free agents, while Fister will also join them on the open market. The Nationals can replace Span with rookie Michael Taylor (who has shown flashes this year) in center field. Top prospect Trea Turner can replace Desmond at shortstop. Roark and Joe Ross can replace Zimmermann and Fister in the rotation.
But Washington still has to figure out what to do behind the plate with Ramos and backup Jose Lobaton. They still need to break up their infield logjam, exacerbated this season because of both Yunel Escobar and Danny Espinosa playing well. They also face tough decisions with Werth and Zimmerman, who are locked up through 2017 and 2019 for eight figures apiece. They need to keep Strasburg, Rendon, and Harper healthy, which has been a chore during each player’s tenure with the organization.
In 2013, the Nationals couldn’t flip the switch until it was too late. The Braves led the division nearly wire to wire, and a 34-20 stretch in August and September was too little, too late. This season, the race is much closer, and a run like that to close out the year would likely be enough to push the club into the playoffs. But this year’s team hasn’t shown they can build a sustained run like that. Since winning eight in a row in June, the Nationals are 13-17. They have as many months above .500 (two) as they have below .500 (two, and they’re 1-3 in August so far to boot). This is a streaky team that hasn’t even been five games up in the division all year. Hell, the Mets have been in first place for nearly as many days (54) as the Nationals have this year (64).
If the Nationals miss the playoffs this year, both Mike Rizzo and Matt Williams should start feeling nervous. The Nationals went into this year with the highest payroll (by far) in franchise history, and the sixth-highest payroll in baseball. If an organization spends that much money and can’t succeed, it’s probably time to go in another direction.
