Rob Manfred has been busy in his short tenure as Major League Baseball’s commissioner, trying to speed up the game (and the Home Run Derby) and making wild suggestions such as eliminating shifts (crazy) and starting an international draft (not so crazy). He continued that trend yesterday when he mentioned that he would be open to moving back the trade deadline.
The primary motivation of such a move is the change to the playoff structure made by his predecessor that added an extra Wild Card team, giving hope to average baseball teams around the country. On July 31st, 2011, the last year of the single Wild Card team per league, there were four teams in the AL and five teams in the NL within five games of one of the eight playoff spots. That year, every play-off team was within six games of a Wild Card spot at the break and none of those who were further than six games back finished the year within five games of a playoff spot.
This year, things are very different. Even in 2013, there were only three legitimate contenders for the NL Wild Card and six for the AL, but things have changed. In an age of standardized mediocrity, eight American League teams are competing (within five games) for two Wild Card spots along with four National League squads. This includes four teams who are currently under .500! In fact, every single AL team is within ten games of a Wild Card spot (in 2011, 16 teams were 9.5 or more games back by July 31st) and even last place teams like the White Sox and Mariners can come up with enough reasons why they should be buyers at the deadline.
With so many buyers, there is as large of a shift in the buyer/seller balance as there as ever has been towards the sellers. The few teams that have given up, like the Brewers and Reds (thanks to the one division that has shown excellence), now have their pick of suitors and can demand extreme prices for players like Johnny Cueto and Carlos Gomez.
With just one Wild Card spot, you could add two more games back for each team and borderline contenders like the Rangers, Indians, Orioles, and Rays would likely be giving up about now. Instead, they all see that if they can pull off a couple decent winning streaks, they could be right back at the top of the bottom.
It is this indecision by the middle teams that has created the slow market so far this summer. Prior to July 23rd, no major players had been dealt and while this is not that strange, it is a valuable time to move starting pitchers especially as they can get one or two extra starts for their new teams.
Already, there are rules in place that allow players to be traded after the July 31st deadline as long as they pass through waivers and all players added before that August 31st deadline are eligible for playoff rosters. These rules ensure that a team can’t change significantly at the last second for an unfair advantage in the postseason.
Moving the deadline back even two weeks would likely take a lot of drama out of the deadline. Teams like the Reds, Athletics and Brewers would still be able to start the trade season off as soon as they wanted to wave the white flag, but others wouldn’t necessarily have to make the same panic moves at 10 PM on the 31st. Giving teams a little longer to figure out who they are would most likely lead to fairer trades and be better for baseball as a sport.
There are a lot of options and I am sure it will come up in the Winter Meetings and the next collective bargaining agreement, but wouldn’t expect any immediate (2016) changes. It is possible that this and last year’s long list of late competitors is not necessarily indicative of the future of baseball, but it wouldn’t be surprising if it was. Moving the trade deadline could just be the second (the first being constant interleague play after the restructuring of divisions) in a long line of ramifications from the final changes during the tenure of Bud Selig.
