One name that is coming up in trade talks may shock Atlanta Braves fans. 24-year old starter Julio Teheran is reportedly on the market, with Fox’s Ken Rosenthal quoting rival executives as saying the Braves are “quite open” to dealing the Colombian hurler. Teheran is making just $1 million this season, and is signed through 2019 (with an option for the 2020 season).
But following back to back great seasons in 2013 and 2014, Teheran has struggled this year. Through 120 1/3 innings over 20 starts, his ERA is 4.49. While Teheran has gotten groundballs at a career-best (but still quite low) 39.9% rate and his strikeout rate is right around his career average, his walk rate has spiked to 8.9% and he’s allowing home runs at a career-worst pace (1.20 per nine innings).
Lately, Teheran has pitched better. After allowing six homers in both April and May, he’s allowed just four in nine June and July starts. He’s also thrown six or more innings in all but one of those nine June and July starts after finishing the sixth in just five starts in April and May. His wOBA allowed has fallen each month this year, while his xFIP has also dropped off considerably.
There are still some odd quirks about Teheran’s performance. At Turner Field, he’s been magnificent, pitching to a 2.37 ERA in ten starts while allowing just three home runs and a sterling .253 wOBA. In ten road starts, his ERA is a ghastly 6.95 while he’s given up 13 longballs and allowed a .423 wOBA. Lefties are smashing Teheran to the tune or a .306/.390/.476 line, while righties have performed much worse, hitting .226/.296/.390.
ATLANTA, GA – JUNE 21: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the second inning against the New York Mets at Turner Field on June 21, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
If you’re the Braves, you have plenty of options with Teheran. They could just ignore the possibility of trading him, keep him in the rotation, hope that the surge that began in June continues, and he looks like the future ace he looked like in 2013 and 2014.
They could wait until the offseason to trade Teheran, but of course, that’s a double-edged sword – if Teheran’s performance regresses to its April/May form, his value is nil. If he gets hurt, his value is nonexistent. If it continues to rebound and he’s dealt, the team runs the risk of punting too soon and giving up a cheaply signed asset.
They could also trade Teheran in the next week, which seems doubtful – they’d be selling low on him, and it’s hard to place value on a pitcher signed to a deal like his that struggled so much during the season’s first two months.
There’s also the whole “ridiculously crowded trade market” thing, but Teheran is almost in a league of his own. He’s not a rental like David Price or Johnny Cueto, and he’s not owed an exorbitant amount of money like Cole Hamels. How many pitchers available on the market are signed through 2019 and owed roughly $30 million?
Even with someone like Chris Sale, a much better pitcher than Teheran that likely isn’t available, the team that acquires him would end up paying at least $50 million for his services through 2019, assuming all of the club options are exercised. You’re obviously getting a lot of value there, but the contract *is* larger than Teheran’s.
The easiest thing for the Braves to do is keep Teheran. Trading him *just to trade him* would accomplish nothing. Now, if a team comes along and offers three Top 100 prospects, John Hart and company would be fools not to listen.
But bundling Teheran with Chris Johnson for a subpar return, just to wipe Johnson’s contract from the books? That would be asinine.
