We’ve hit the halfway mark of the 2015 MLB season, and as we do every year during the All-Star Break, the TOC staff put our heads together and came up with our midseason award winners. For the MVP and Cy Young awards, ballots required five candidates, while just three were required for the Rookie of the Year ballots. The MVP and Cy Young awards were determined pretty easily, but the Rookies of the Year? We’re going to need another half for them to gain some separation.
A total of ten TOC staffers turned in ballots. Points were assigned on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis for the MVP and Cy Young, and on a 5-3-1 basis for the Rookie of the Year.
AL MVP – Mike Trout (45 points, six first place votes)
The king…well, he still reigns supreme. Trout almost seems to be falling a bit under the radar this season, but he’s actually having his best offensive year to date. Through 88 games, Trout is hitting .312/.405/.614 with 26 homers and nine stolen bases. Essentially, he’s managed to combine the power he showed last season with the high batting average he flaunted in 2012 and 2013. That’s…not a good combination for the rest of the American League. The .427 wOBA and 184 wRC+ that Trout has posted would be career-bests if he manages to sustain this pace for the rest of the season. Trout will likely end up with a career-high home run total and an OBP above .400 – and probably, his second straight AL MVP award.
Josh Donaldson is someone that garnered a lot of support from our staff, and could knock Trout out of the catbird’s seat with a strong second half (and a sustained playoff push from the Blue Jays, of course). He’s playing his typically excellent third base in Toronto, and is hitting .293/.351/.532 with 21 homers for the Jays. Miguel Cabrera’s calf injury has likely knocked him out of the running, but he was on pace for a return to his 2012-13 MVP form, smashing his way to 15 homers and a .350/.456/.578 line through 77 games. Manny Machado of the Orioles is having a fantastic year now that he’s finally healthy, and is having a year similar to Donaldson’s – he’s hitting .298/.361/.525 with 19 homers, 13 steals, and Gold Glove defense at third base for an AL East contender. After a down year in 2014, Jason Kipnis has been the spark for the Indians in 2015, hitting .323/.401/.487 with six homers and ten steals. If Cleveland has a strong second half and forces their way into the playoff race, give Kipnis a second look.
Rest of the voting
2. Josh Donaldson (35 points, two first place votes)
3. Miguel Cabrera (25 points, one first place vote)
4. Manny Machado (17 points)
5. Jason Kipnis (15 points, one first place vote)
6. Chris Sale (five points)
7. JD Martinez (four points)
8. George Springer (two points)
9t. Nelson Cruz (one point)
9t. Prince Fielder (one point)
BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 11: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals hits a solo home run in the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 11, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Washington Nationals won, 7-4. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
NL MVP – Bryce Harper (48 points, eight first place votes)
So, the breakout season has finally arrived, huh? Harper is hitting .339/.464/.704 with a career-high 26 homers through just 81 games, dwarfing the offensive numbers of every player in baseball at the season’s midway point. There really was no other shows, and that sucks for someone like Paul Goldschmidt, who is having a fantastic season. This award is his to lose, and only a Diamondbacks playoff run combined with a collapse by Harper will likely bump him from the top spot.
It’s kind of insane how good Paul Goldschmidt is – I think we all forgot about him after he played in just 109 games a year ago. But Arizona’s first baseman is healthy and beating the crap out of the ball in the desert once again, mashing his way to a .340/.455/.610 line with 20 homers and (perhaps shockingly) 16 stolen bases. He’s also leading the NL in two of the three Triple Crown categories at the All-Star Break, falling short in only home runs. Speaking of home runs, the current leader is Giancarlo Stanton with 27…but he’s out now with a broken bone in his hand. Stanton launched those 27 homers in just 74 games, and was on pace for a potentially historic season before his injury. If he could ever stay healthy, an MVP award would certainly be in his future.
Rest of the voting
2. Paul Goldschmidt (37 points, two first place votes)
3. Giancarlo Stanton (20 points)
4. Todd Frazier (13 points)
5. Buster Posey (12 points)
6. Andrew McCutchen (seven points
7. Nolan Arenado (five points)
8t. Anthony Rizzo (three points)
8t. Max Scherzer (three points)
10t. Clayton Kershaw (one point)
10t. Joc Pederson (one point)
CHICAGO, IL – JULY 06: Chris Sale #49 of the Chicago White Sox pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning of play at U.S. Cellular Field on July 6, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
AL Cy Young – Chris Sale (46 points, seven first place votes)
Sale wasn’t a unanimous choice, and while his ERA is a disappointing 2.72, his performance has been much stronger than that. In 119 1/3 innings over 17 starts, Sale has struck out 157 hitters and walked only 23. The only pitcher in baseball with more strikeouts is Clayton Kershaw, and the only pitchers with better strikeout to walk ratios are Max Scherzer, Michael Pineda, and Bartolo Colon. 11 of his last 12 starts have been quality starts, and it’s been more than two months since he failed to pitch into the seventh inning. You can’t blame Sale for everything that has gone wrong with the White Sox this season.
Dallas Keuchel has been marvelous for the Astros once again this season, building on his breakout 2014. Through 19 starts and 137 1/3 innings, he has a 2.23 ERA, 114 strikeouts, 34 walks, a 64.1% groundball rate, and already has three complete games. If Houston remains strong in the second half, look for him to get more attention. Chris Archer is another guy that has built on a breakout 2014 this year, and has a 2.74 ERA through 19 games and 121 2/3 innings. He’s also struck out 147 and walked only 30. The reigning winner, Corey Kluber of the Indians, is off to a poor 4-10 start…but still has 154 strikeouts and 28 walks to go along with a 3.38 ERA in 133 1/3 innings. Kluber was outdueled by Sonny Gray on Sunday, who has 108 strikeouts, 30 walks, and a sparking 2.04 ERA in 123 2/3 innings for the Athletics. Could he be a Cy Young candidate for Oakland in the second half – or maybe trade bait?
Rest of the voting
2. Dallas Keuchel (36 points, three first place votes)
3. Chris Archer (22 points)
4. Corey Kluber (21 points)
5. Sonny Gray (ten points)
6. Felix Hernandez (eight points)
7. David Price (seven points)
BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 12: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals pitches in the first inning during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 12, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
NL Cy Young – Max Scherzer (50 points, ten first place votes)
Scherzer was the one unanimous pick among our staff, and there really wasn’t much in the way of competition for him. In 132 innings, he has a 2.11 ERA, 150 strikeouts, and only 14 walks. He’s thrown a no-hitter. He only hasn’t finished the sixth inning once this year. He hasn’t walked a batter in five straight starts, and hasn’t walked more than two hitters in any start. I could go on and on and on, but my main point remains – Scherzer is the NL Cy Young winner at the midway point, and anyone who tries to argue otherwise is wrong.
It’s tough for me to come up with complimentary things about the rest of the pack when comparing them to Scherzer. Clayton Kershaw is having a “down” year, but still leads baseball with 160 strikeouts over 123 innings. His teammate Zack Greinke’s strikeout total is just 106, but his 1.39 ERA leads baseball. Jacob deGrom is showing that his 2014 NL Rookie off the Year season has no fluke, pitching to a 2.14 ERA in 113 2/3 innings while striking out 112 and walking only 21. Gerrit Cole has been a rock for the Pirates, dazzling the NL with a 2.30 ERA, 116 strikeouts, 28 walks, and a league leading (if this is your thing) 13 wins in his 18 starts. Then there’s Jake Arrieta of the Cubs, outpitching his much higher-paid teammate Jon Lester by throwing 121 2/3 innings, striking out 123, walking 25, and notching a 2.66 ERA.
Rest of the voting
2. Clayton Kershaw (22 points)
3. Zack Greinke (21 points)
4t. Gerrit Cole (16 points)
4t. Jacob deGrom (16 points)
6. Jake Arrieta (11 points)
7. AJ Burnett (seven points)
8t. Shelby Miller (two points)
8t. Johnny Cueto (two points)
BOSTON, MA – JULY 5: Lance McCullers #43 of the Houston Astros pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on July 5, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Red Sox won 5-4. (Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images)
AL Rookie of the Year – Lance McCullers (28 points, three first place votes)
Now this is where things get crazy. Our midseason AL Rookie of the Year is McCullers…and he’s made just 11 starts this year, and likely won’t get to 20 before being shut down when he reaches his innings limit. In those 11 starts, McCullers has thrown 64 1/3 innings, striking out 71, walking 24, and pitching to a 2.52 ERA.
His biggest competition for the award is teammate Carlos Correa, who was just called up a month ago. In only 32 major league games, he has seven homers, five steals, and a .276/.312/.507 stat line. Yes, that’s impressive, but it’s still quite a small sample that can go pear-shaped quickly. The other top offensive contender for the award is Devon Travis of the Blue Jays…and Correa has him beat in steals (just three for Travis) and has matched his homer total despite Travis playing 20 more games in the bigs this year. However, Travis’s triple slash numbers *do* look better overall – .304/.353/.492.
What about others? Billy Burns is hitting .303/.340/.399, has stolen 17 bases for the A’s, and won’t be hunting for playing time down the stretch. Carson Smith has kinda sorta been the closer in Seattle, and has six games to go along with a 1.73 ERA, 47 strikeouts, and six walks in 36 1/3 relief innings for the Mariners. Steven Souza Jr. is on the DL for the Rays, and despite striking out 35% of the time and hitting an odd .210/.301/.417, he’s launched 15 homers and swiped ten bags.
Rest of the voting
2t. Carlos Correa (26 points, four first place votes)
2t. Devon Travis (26 points, three first place votes)
4. Billy Burns (four points)
5. Carson Smith (three points)
6. Steven Souza Jr. (two points)
7. Kendall Graveman (one point)
LOS ANGELES, CA – JULY 12: Joc Pederson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a double in the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium on July 12, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers won 4-3. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
NL Rookie of the Year – Joc Pederson (40 points, six first place votes)
And we end with *this* – a damn tie in a very tight NL Rookie of the Year race. Pederson earned six first place votes to Kris Bryant’s four, but also got a third place vote while Bryant got none. The battle between these two is quite close.
Bryant is hitting .269/.376/.472, while Pederson is hitting .230/.364/.487. Bryant has 12 homers and eight steals, Pederson has 20 homers and two steals. Bryant has a 13.5% walk rate and a 29.7% strikeout rate, Pederson has a 15.8% walk rate and a 29.2% strikeout rate. Bryant has been worth 3.5 fWAR, Pederson has been worth 3.3 fWAR. Bryant has graded out as a better defender by UZR, Pederson has graded out as a better defender by DRS. Both players are All-Stars, and both are playing for contenders (again, if that matters to you).
So…who’s the pick? I think it’s a matter of personal opinion at this point, and the second half will determine which player takes home the award.
But even though Bryant and Pederson are 1 and 1A…don’t count out a pair of NL third basemen. Matt Duffy of the Giants is hitting .293/.335/.462 with eight homers and three steals, and following Casey McGehee’s defection back to the Marlins, he’ll be playing every day from here on out. Maikel Franco’s career in Philadelphia is also off to a hot start, and he’s hitting .284/.339/.495 with ten homers in 55 games. So while there are those two guys pacing the pack *right now*…we could be in a four horse race come September. Hold me.
Rest of the voting
2. Kris Bryant (38 points, four first place votes)
3. Matt Duffy (five points)
4. Maikel Franco (three points)
5t. Chris Heston (two points)
5t. Noah Syndergaard (two points)
