It’s been an interesting season so far for the Chicago White Sox.
That may be an understatement.
After a 10-and-18 April, some media were already calling for Ozzie Guillen’s head and declaring their 2011 season dead in the water. However, the waters of the Chicago River have been flowing more smoothly since. The pale hose are 28-23 since the end of April and now find themselves five games back in the AL Central, well within striking distance of first place Detroit and free-falling Cleveland.
At this point, the Sox have some big decisions to make. With two key members of their rotation headed for free agency after the season, they need to decide whether they are buyers or sellers as the trade deadline approaches.
Even with the struggles of John Danks and the injuries to Jake Peavy, the starting rotation has been a source of strength. Every starter to throw at least 80 innings has posted positive wins above replacement (WAR) and every starter other than Peavy, who only has 34.1 innings under his belt this season, has posted a WAR above one. Edwin Jackson leads the club with a 2.4 WAR and the White Sox rotation as a whole have posted the third most WAR in the American League.
Two major parts of that rotation, Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle, are free agents after the season, so if the Sox decide to sell, they’d have two big-time trade chips in their hand. However, trading them away would almost certainly end their chances of contention in 2011.
The big surprise of the rotation this season has been Phil Humber, who is 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA, which is the eighth best ERA in the AL. However, by sabermetric standards, perhaps Humber hasn’t pitched as well as his ERA indicates. While his 2.5 K/BB rate is better than league average, his 5.5 K/9 is below league average, leading some to believe that his extremely low BABIP of .219 will regress to the mean (of around .300). Humber pitches to contact, but he has been incredibly effective in inducing weak contact. He has only allowed a 14-percent line-drive rate (20-percent being about average) and has done a fair job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (HR/9 under one). The development of a very good slider has helped to keep hitters off balance, which is a pitch he seldom used in the past.
While it is likely that Humber will regress a bit in the second half, he should still provide plenty of value in the Sox rotation. If the rotation can remain healthy enough, they have a chance to carry the Sox in the second half, especially given that when everyone’s healthy, they go six deep.
The bullpen, which was a disaster in April, has made a bit of a comeback. Neither Matt Thornton nor Chris Sale found much success early on, but both have lowered their xFIP’s to under 3.70. Sergio Santos, who was strong in April, has struggled of late while Thornton and Sale have been almost lights out. While the pen has been far from consistent, there is plenty of strikeout ability in there and it could end up being a major asset moving forward.
Offensively, the White Sox have a few weak spots, specifically at third and left. At third base, rookie Brent Morel has done next to nothing at the dish. His triple slash stands at .253/.263/.313 and he has drawn only one walk in 187 plate appearances. Even Vladimir Guerrero thinks that’s bad. In left, Juan Pierre has been one of the worst regulars in baseball this season, having posted –1.3 WAR to this point with a slash line of .251/.311/.294. His defense was never great, but it’s a glaring weakness now more than ever.
Alex Rios, after a strong 2011 season, has struggled to do much of anything at the plate, hitting .224/.275/.332. Though he has been improving to the tune of .294/.342/.412 this month. Rios had a big first half last season, but faded a bit in the second half. The White Sox are hoping that the opposite holds true for this season. Gordon Beckham hopes to have a second half like he did last season, but he’s struggled mightily to find consistency or a sense of plate discipline so far in 2011.
Then there’s that little problem at DH. I think we’re more likely to find Carmen Sandiego, than the answer to Adam Dunn’s disappearance.
Given the potential strength in the rotation and bullpen, the Sox have a real chance to contend in the AL Central. GM Kenny Williams has been known to make bold moves and this season should be no different. The Sox aren’t loaded with prospects, but they could use some contract situations as leverage. Specifically, they could take a look at Aramis Ramirez, who’s playing ball only a few miles north. His contract is complicated, which may give any team vying for his services a little leverage. Ramirez has a $16M club option with a $2M buyout for next season. However, Ramirez can also void the 2012 option by forfeiting the $2M buyout. The option automatically vests if he is traded, but he can still void the option if he so chooses. Therefore, any team that would acquire Ramirez could be on the leash for $16M in 2012 or they could not have his services at all.
This move would add a veteran bat to the middle of their order and push the punchless Brent Morel aside.
There are also veteran options the White Sox could look at to replace Juan Pierre in left-field. Those options would include Ryan Ludwick, Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham and others.
The Indians, now far removed from a red-hot April, will need to improve their pitching staff if they want to stop from free-falling out of contention. The White Sox don’t have that problem and if they can add a piece here or there, they could make a serious run at the first-place Tigers.
This team isn’t getting any younger and with no blue-chip prospects on the way, it’s time to go for the glory in 2011 and pay the price as the trade deadline approaches.
Post Author: Charlie Saponara.
