There is no question that the American League Central is one of the toughest divisions in baseball (it is home to 7 of 9 potential All-Star starters) and that has lead to a difficult climb for those teams at the bottom. While the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox appeared to be ready to contend for a World Series title at the start of the season, the still strong Royals, the not dead yet Tigers, and the better than advertised Twins have made things difficult to the point of giving up.
Both Chicago and Cleveland have incredible pitchers, yet rank in the bottom third in team ERA in baseball and both have star sluggers, but the Indians are near the worst hitting team in the majors while the White Sox are at best league average. Combined, both teams have a potential MVP (Jason Kipnis and Jose Abreu), a potential Cy Young (Chris Sale and Corey Kluber) and a potential last place finish in the AL Central. With that in mind, it may be time to move on to 2016 a little early for these two early favorites.
As shown by their popularity as dark horse World Series contenders at the beginning of the year, both Chicago and Cleveland are close to having an excellent team for years to come. Both have many young, extremely talented players that are under contract for a very long time (in baseball years, this means at least through 2018) and will be unlikely to completely blow things up. Instead, they will likely be looking to add by subtracting, removing under-producers with big contracts and replacing them from within, while attempting to increase minor league depth if possible.
CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 18: Jeff Samardzija #29 of the Chicago White Sox pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at U.S. Cellular Field on June 18, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Chicago White Sox
As said, the White Sox have most of their team under control for the near future with just Jeff Samardzija among greatly important players becoming a free agent for 2016. Considering players of lesser importance, Gordon Beckham and back-up catcher, Geovany Soto will also be able to pursue another team this winter.
Of course, the Shark is the most likely of these or any other White Sox players to be dealt this year. His numbers leave much to be desired considering the seven players that were dealt for him over the past year (including Addison Russell from the Athletics to the Cubs) and he is, at best, the third best White Sox starter at the moment. With the emergence of the phenom Carlos Rodon, just one year after being drafted, the White Sox can afford to move Samardzija once they believe their chances at a play-off opportunity are sufficiently low. He will certainly be a hot commodity in the trade market, possibly the biggest name involved for the second year in a row, and this would allow Chicago to regain some of the minor league depth lost in acquiring him.
Even without him, a rotation of Sale, Rodon, Jose Quintana, Hector Noesi, and John Danks wouldn’t be the worst in baseball, although Danks (who is a free agent in after 2016), will likely have to be replaced in 2016 if the White Sox want to legitimately contend.
Since this appears to be the plan (to legitimately contend in 2016, not to replace Danks or trade Samardzija), there are a few immovable pieces already on the team. The core of Sale (under control through 2018), Abreu (through 2019), Quintana (through 2019), Avasail Garcia (through 2019) and Rodon should be considered untouchable, but much of the rest of the team is interchangeable.
One player who could be interesting to other teams is Alexei Ramirez, who has a $10M option for 2016 with a $1M buyout. Ramirez is a slightly above average defensive short stop over his career, but has a greater tendency than the average middle infielder to hit the home run. While he is having an off year so far in 2015, the two time Silver Slugger winner has always been a safe bet for 15 home runs per year and a WAR above three. While not as valuable as Samardzija, Ramirez could certainly bring in a decent prospect load from a team looking to use his 2016 option to get a year and a half of a powerful shortstop for just about $15M.
CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 23: Michael Bourn #24 of the Cleveland Indians scores on a double by Jason Kipnis #22 during the eighth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field on May 23, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Michael Bourn
Cleveland Indians
The Indians are in a slightly more dichotomous position than the White Sox as their stars are locked up even longer (Kipnis, Kluber and Yan Gomes are signed through at least 2020, Carlos Carrasco through 2019, with upstart rookies like Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor should be around at least as long) while their tradeable veterans will be much less coveted.
The list of players the Indians would like to be relieved of, essentially Michael Bourn, Marc Rzcepzynski, Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn and the injured Nick Swisher, is completely opposite of the list of players other teams would be interested in, which includes those locked into long term deals and possibly Brandon Moss and Carlos Santana.
Any deal the Indians work out this year will likely serve a dual purpose. In addition to adding new talent, the team is desperate to rid themselves of excess salary. Because of this, the most probable deal will involve moving both a player from the first group in addition to a player in the second (or a top minor league prospect) in exchange for a controllable Major League ready player. This is going to be a difficult move for the Indians to pull off and thus will likely not happen. Instead you may see role players like Aviles, Raburn, or David Murphy moved for AA level players with the Indians intending to improve from within with players like Jose Ramirez, Tyler Holt, Tyler Naquin, or James Ramsey. All three of those veteran role players mentioned are potential free agents after 2015 (both Raburn and Murphy have 2016 options) and could be useful to a team looking for a platoon bat.
Rather than being sellers at the deadline, it is actually more likely that the Indians will be garbage men, taking out the trash via the DFA rather than trade. With Kyle Crockett, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jesus Aguilar, and more major league ready players currently in AAA, it would make more sense to give meaningless August and September at bats to these younger players rather than those veterans who won’t even be involved with the team after the season is over.
Both the Indians and White Sox are not out of it yet and, considering their dearth of talent that is currently under-performing, they could easily jump the Twins and maybe even (not as easily) the Tigers and Royals with a quick turn around. If this happens, you could still see trades of upcoming free agents like Samardzija, Murphy, and Raburn, but instead of looking for prospects, the Indians and White Sox could trade for players in similar contractual situations that could fill a hole a little better within the team. Whether they are in or out, however, look for both teams to attempt to make some noise in the early July trade market.
