Last year and this past winter saw the Tampa Bay Rays trade away David Price, Ben Zobrist, and Wil Myers. These moves were not widely lauded and most thought there wasn’t a chance the Rays could compete this year. As of the morning of June 24th, the Rays are first in the AL East with a 41-32 record (3rd best in AL, 7th best in MLB). This has prompted me to ask two questions: How are they doing it? And can it last?
How are they doing it? In a word: Pitching. As of writing this the Rays have allowed the fourth fewest runs per game (3.51 RA/G) in major league baseball. That mark is the best among American League clubs. By DRA (deserved run average) the Rays pitching (3.80) has been the 3rd best in baseball and the best in the AL. By cFIP (FIP in context where 100 is league average, below 100 is above average) the Rays are tied with the Pirates for 4th best in baseball and are 3rd in the AL.
By DRA, the Rays starting pitching has been the 2nd best in baseball and the AL (Oakland has been the best). DRA is descriptive but not predictive so it can’t tell us if the Rays starters will continue performing at such a high level. We need to look elsewhere.
By comparing their ERA to their FIP we can see how closely their ERA has matched their performance. Chris Archer (2.10 ERA, 2.23 FIP) and Erasmo Ramirez (3.62 ERA, 3.69 FIP) have both seen their results match their performance. Alex Colome (4.50 ERA, 4.82 FIP), Nate Karns (3.53 ERA, 4.02 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (2.47 ERA, 2.98 FIP) have seen better results than their performance warranted.
Chris Archer (66 cFIP) and Jake Odorizzi (91 cFIP) have been the only Rays starters that have been above average. Nate Karns (102 cFIP) and Erasmo Ramirez (105 cFIP) are right around average and Alex Colome (110 cFIP) has been below average. Unlike DRA, cFIP is both descriptive and predictive. So we can make an educated guess that these pitchers will continue to perform at these levels.
Looking at all these numbers I would suggest that Odorizzi is due for the biggest negative correction. The results he’s seen so far have been well above average but his FIP suggests that’s not how well he’s performed and his cFIP suggests he’s a lot closer to league average. He’s still above average but something above a 3.00 ERA seems more likely for him.
By DRA, the Rays relief pitching has been the 3rd worst in baseball and 2nd worst in the AL. Again we have to look elsewhere to figure out if that will continue.
Here’s the first thing I noticed when I began looking into the Rays relief pitching: They’ve used 21 different relievers. It’s not technically statistically relevant but it gives us a pretty good idea of how much they’re struggling. You don’t go through that many relievers when they’re going well.
Relievers are different than starters in several ways but perhaps most importantly we only have small sample sizes to work with. Even the most worked reliever will typically only throw between 70-80 innings. Fortunately cFIP is useful in small sample sizes so I’m going to use that.
Jake McGee (66 cFIP), Brad Boxberger (76 cFIP), and Steve Geltz (85 cFIP) have been well above average. Kirby Yates (95 cFIP), Brandon Gomes (99 cFIP), Ronald Belisario (105 cFIP) have all been right around league average. Xavier Cedeno (108 cFIP), Kevin Jepsen (110 cFIP), and CJ Riefenhauser (118 cFIP) have all been marginally to moderately below average.
In broad strokes it sounds like a pretty average bullpen. Maybe it’s a little top heavy. But certainly it doesn’t sound like the second or third worst in baseball. I would expect the bullpen to start performing better at some point. The bigger problem might be the offense.
The Rays offense is scoring 3.74 runs per game. That’s 6th worst in baseball (just above the Mets and Brewers) and 3rd worst in the AL. Clearly that’s pretty awful, but looking at their 97 wRC+ perhaps it’s somewhat unlucky too. They’re ranked 13th in baseball and 9th in the AL. It’s still not good, but it’s markedly better than their runs scored suggests.
We can sort of look at their RS/G and their wRC+ in much the same way we looked at DRA vs cFIP. Run scored per game tells us what they’ve done (which wasn’t much) and wRC+ tells us how good we can expect them to be in the future. If you’re a Rays fan that’s a good thing because wRC+ says they should be better.
In fact, looking at the players with the 9 most plate appearances only two are below league average (100 wRC+). They would be catcher Rene Rivera (31 wRC+) and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (68 wRC+). They have the 6th and 4th most plate appearances for the Rays and have been putrid offensively.
Help could be coming at the catching position as John Jaso is nearing a rehab assignment after spending most of the season on the disabled list with a wrist injury. The Rays seem to be stuck with Cabrera at shortstop for the time being though, unless they make a trade.
The Rays have been relying very heavily on their rotation to get them to first place and if that model were to continue I don’t think they’d stay there. Fortunately both the bullpen and offense seem to be better than the results so far have suggested. Despite some negative correction expected in the rotation, if the bullpen and offense can experience a positive correction, the Rays have a good chance of winning their division. Still, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make some trades as an upgrade in the bullpen and at shortstop could really help solidify their chances.
