The 2015 season figured to be a struggle for the Cincinnati Reds, if for no other reason than the competition within the NL Central. The Cardinals and Pirates both projected to be playoff teams, while the Cubs appeared to be an up-and-comer in the division. Meanwhile, the Reds were coming off a 76-win season, had an aging roster and did little to improve during the offseason.
Cincinnati needed everything to go right in order to contend this year. Pardon the understatement, but that hasn’t happened. Joey Votto is having a resurgent season, while Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier are posting typically strong performances. You might guess that would be enough for the Reds to keep pace in the NL Central. Yet poor play from the rest of the roster has been too much to overcome.
Following Monday’s 6-0 loss to the Tigers, Cincinnati is 28-35. Going into Tuesday’s play, that record puts them in fourth place, 14 games behind St. Louis. The other five last-place teams in MLB aren’t that far behind the division leaders. (Thanks to the Brewers, the Reds aren’t in last place. They’re actually five games ahead of Milwaukee.) The Reds are six games back in the wild-card race, as well.
Only three other NL clubs have a worse run differential than Cincinnati’s -23 mark, each of them currently fifth in their respective divisions. The Reds’ team ERA of 4.15 ranks 11th in the league, while their .242 team batting average is the NL’s third-worst.
So the next step for general manager Walt Jocketty seems obvious, right? It’s time to sell. The Reds have plenty of pieces that contenders would like to get their hands on, including Cueto and Chapman — who will be in high demands from now until the trade deadline — along with Mike Leake, Marlon Byrd, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips. Cincinnati is going to finish under .500 without those pieces, so why not try to get something in return, replenish the minor league system and reduce what was a $117 million opening day payroll? That’s one reason why the Reds traded Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos during the offseason.
GOODYEAR, AZ – FEBRUARY 22: President and General Manager Walt Jocketty of the Cincinnati Reds speaks with the media during a press conference at the Cincinnati Reds Development Complex on February 22, 2010 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
But I will argue that the Reds actually shouldn’t sell. Say what? And hey, aren’t you the guy who wrote that Cincinnati should trade off pieces last July? Nearly a year ago, this team was six games out of first and 4.5 away from a wild-card spot.
Yep, that’s me. And I’m glad you (even if I’m imagining you) brought up the thing I wrote last year, because it’s central to my argument.
Last year was the time for Cincinnati to go into sell-off mode because Jocketty would have gotten better value for his players. Reds fans will point to the Cubs getting Addison Russell for Jeff Samardzija and the Rays nabbing Nick Franklin and Drew Smyly when they dealt David Price. But both of those players had an additional year of club control before becoming free agents.
Cueto will be a free agent after this season. Other teams aren’t going to surrender as much in trade for a player that may only make a contribution for two months. (Three, if that club makes it to the postseason.) Sure, there’s no guarantee that Jocketty won’t find a GM who’s desperate to make a playoff push or nab an ace-level starter for a World Series contender (while also keeping him away from a competitor). But those teams are probably in contention because their GMs don’t make moves like that.
Leake is going to be a free agent too. He currently has a 4.35 ERA and isn’t a power pitcher that strikes guys out. Will any prospect the Reds get in return better than whomever they could select with a compensatory draft pick if Leake signs with another team? The same might apply to Byrd if he even has trade value once he recovers from a wrist injury. (The outfielder is also unlikely to reach the 550 plate appearances he needs to trigger an $8 million option for 2016.)
Bruce is currently batting .209 with a .708 OPS, following up an injury-plagued 2014 during which he hit .217 with a .654 OPS. That doesn’t give him much trade value, and since he’s under contract for next season, the Reds are probably better off keeping him and hoping he can be an impact run producer.
Phillips isn’t going anywhere. As the Cincinnati Enquirer‘s C. Trent Rosecrans points out, the second baseman is owed the remainder of his $12 million salary for this season, has $27 million remaining on his contract over the next two years and can veto any trade as a “10-and-five” player (10 years in the majors, five with the same team). Plus, he’s going to turn 34 at the end of this month. Maybe Jocketty could try to get a better prospect if the Reds ate a significant portion of his salary, but that wouldn’t help reduce the team’s payroll. Besides, Phillips is not such a special player that he’d yield a top minor leaguer in return.
CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 10: Aroldis Chapman #54 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park on June 10, 2015 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds defeated the Phillies 5-2. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
That brings us to the player Cincinnati absolutely should trade. I can stretch to make an argument for the Reds keeping their other trade pieces, but don’t have a good reason for Chapman. He has one more year of arbitration eligibility next season, so Jocketty can get more in return. Relievers — especially closers — are always in demand among contenders. How useful will a closer — even an elite one like Chapman — have on a bad team? He’s had only 14 save opportunities this year. For a team like the Nationals, who are reportedly in pursuit, Chapman is far more valuable.
Yes, Chapman is an elite talent. Dial him up for 100-plus strikeouts and a rate of 15 Ks per nine innings every season. But at best, he’ll only contribute 70 innings. That could be the difference between a good team and a great team, between a hopeful and actual contender. In my view, unless you absolutely need such a player, you trade a reliever for prospects — especially if it’s position player talent — every time, with very few exceptions. The Reds can find someone else suitable to pitch the ninth inning. Will he be as sure a thing as Chapman? Almost certainly not. But that role can be filled with a lesser player.
Cincinnati thought it could make one last playoff run this season, and who knows what could have happened in the postseason? But now that such goals are out of reach, it’s time to think about next year. Yet that doesn’t necessarily mean trade away all the good players. The Reds need someone to build around Votto and Frazier and can let the ancillary pieces go for draft picks and to clear payroll.
This wouldn’t be a popular tactic, and Jocketty will very likely get what he can for his coveted players. But it’s not the sure thing that it would have been a year ago.
