There is a subset of Cincinnati Reds fans, of which I’m told includes their announcers, that criticizes Joey Votto for not being aggressive enough. Joey Votto who was worth over 25 WAR from 2010-2013 (2014 was injury shortened). The narrative is that Joey Votto doesn’t swing enough and when he’s more aggressive at the plate he’s a better player. He’s having a great season (three home runs in yesterday’s game alone) and so the narrative has become that now he is swinging more. Neither is entirely true, nor entirely wrong. But one thing that shouldn’t be debated is that Joey Votto is an amazing baseball player.
Let’s ignore 2007 (his first season in the majors and not a full one). From 2008 through 2011 Joey Votto had a swing rate above 40%. He averaged a 13.2 BB%, 18.5 K%, .238 ISO, slashed .312/.406/.550, with a .409 wOBA, and 153 wRC+.
From 2012 through 2014 he swung at fewer than 40% of pitches. He averaged 18.7 BB%, 18.5 K%, .194 ISO, slashed .306/.439/.500, with a .404 wOBA, and 158 wRC+.
When he swung less it does appear his slugging numbers and ISO drop. Fans are much more enamored with home runs than walks so it’s not surprising more casual or “old-school” fans would be put off by fewer home runs. Or vice-versa, claim a player is his best when he’s hitting the most home runs. But you know what I find amazing? From 2012 through 2014 Joey Votto walked more than he struck out. And it’s not like he had single digit rates in either category. That’s pretty impressive.
In fact it’s the walks that made him just as valuable despite the fewer home runs. His batting average remained more or less the same only dropping .006 points. His ISO dropped from .238 to .194. His slugging percentage dropped from .550 to .500. But his wOBA was essentially the same (.409 vs .404) and his wRC+ actually improved (153 vs 158). That was made possible by increasing his OBP from .406 to .439.
So far this year he’s swinging at almost exactly 40% of pitches (40.8% to be exact). He has a 14.8 BB%, 18.9 K%, .261 ISO, slashing .300/.406/.560, with a .414 wOBA, and 168 wRC+. Once again we see that when he swings more he does hit more home runs, but his on-base suffers (if you can call a .400+ OBP suffering).
Right now it’s working because he’s slugging is so high. And that’s okay. I’m all for it. Joey Votto is great and can make it work. He’s just different shades of great depending on which plate approach he decides to use. But he was his best when he wasn’t trying to “sell out” for power and was willing to walk more.
I’m not sure why some Reds fans decided Joey Votto was going to be their punching bag. I suppose every fanbase has those types of fans. I know for a fact a lot of Brewers fans dog Carlos Gomez for his base running mistakes despite back-to-back MVP caliber seasons. Twins fans seemingly have a vendetta towards Joe Mauer because he doesn’t hit enough home runs. Maybe it just comes from a misunderstanding of what it really takes to make a good baseball player. Maybe it’s just something about human beings that we have to complain when something or someone isn’t perfect.
My suggestion to those fans is to stop nitpicking, because that’s the only way you can find fault in a guy like Joey Votto. Ignoring his injury shortened season, he’s never been worth less than 4.6 fWAR in a full season. Three times he’s been worth over 6 fWAR (it was almost four times as he was worth 5.8 fWAR once).
Joey Votto is amazing when he’s patient at the plate and willing to sacrifice power for on-base. Joey Votto is amazing when he’s (relatively speaking) aggressive at the plate and willing to sell out for power. Simply put, Joey Votto is amazing. Learn to appreciate it.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
