On May 1st, the AL Central looked surprisingly set. What was supposed to be the most competitive division in baseball was close for one and two (1.5 games), but the third place Twins were 3.5 games behind that and the two trendy picks to win the division, the Indians and White Sox sat at the bottom with little hope of moving up.
Today, things are a little back to normal. From May 10th through 24th, the Indians went 10-4 including a six game winning streak, but actually lost a game in the standings to the Royals. Since then, they have continued their hot streak, playing one game above .500, but have gained to get back within six games of the division lead. That division lead is no longer held by the Royals either.
The Twins have caught fire after starting the season 6-10. Since then, they have went 27-13 including a four game sweep of the White Sox and further series wins against Cleveland and Chicago within the division. From six games back in fifth place on April 23rd, Minnesota has gained seven games on the Royals to proclaim themselves the collective King of the Mountain, for the moment at least. The question now, is can they maintain this success?
Minnesota Twins
Prior to the start of the season, when people talked about a tight Central, they meant everyone but the Twins. Now in first, the Twins have great starts from Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, and a fantastic bullpen to thank for their success. That bullpen may have been the most important part of the Twins success to this point.
Glen Perkins has saved 21 of their 33 wins, 100% of the chances he has been given. The fact that the Twins have been within three runs often enough to give Perkins opportunities in 64% of their games shows how well their team has been at keeping things close late. Further proof of their bullpen success is that they have went 11-7 in one run games and 3-1 in extra innings.
As a team, the Twins are 14th in average, 23rd in OBP and 20th in slugging percentage, yet rank eighth in runs scored as if in an attempt to completely destroy the sabrmetric community. A further indictment is that they rank 25th in overall WAR. Advanced analytics are still saying the same things about the Twins they were saying before the season started, but the team is still winning. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain their success despite everything going against them.
KANSAS CITY, MO – JUNE 05: Lorenzo Cain #6 of the Kansas City Royals laughs off a unnecessary throw infield after he caught the third out in the in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium on June 5, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kyle Rivas/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Lorenzo Cain
Kansas City Royals
The complete opposite of the Indians and Twins, the Royals started the season aflame, but have since fizzled. A series loss to the Indians and a sweep from the Yankees have pushed Kansas City out of first during part of a 3-9 stretch after winning five in a row and seven of eight.
In the last week, the Royals pitching staff has generally remained dominant, but the offense has disappeared with three regulars hitting below .200 and just three home runs as a team. When KC won the AL crown in 2014, they did so with great pitching and defense despite their offense, but one of the reasons they had been so hot at the beginning of the year was an increase in offensive output. In four games early on they scored more than ten runs each, but have scored just 14 total in their last seven.
Likely, as it always does in baseball, the truth lies somewhere between. The Royals still have one of the best defenses in baseball and an excellent bullpen with a decent rotation and average lineup. They are a very solid baseball team all around and will almost certainly return to first in the near future and stick around in the race for the rest of the season.
CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 06: David Price #14 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates a complete game win against the Chicago White Sox with James McCann #34 at U.S. Cellular Field on June 5, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. The Tigers defeated the White Sox 7-1. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Detroit Tigers
Like Kansas City, the Tigers started off hot (11-2) and haven’t been able to maintain their winning ways, but unlike the Royals, they weren’t really expected to. Many picked the Tigers to fall to fourth in the division after winning the division four years in a row and the easily could fall to fourth within the next week.
Early in the season, many of the Tigers hitters were being buoyed by high Batting Averages on Balls in Play and since then many have fallen to below average levels. This includes both players who weren’t expected to perform at that level, like Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis and those who were, like Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler.
Even with their drop back to normal, the Tigers offense is still one to be feared. Where their real trouble lies is in the starting rotation on days that don’t feature David Price or Alfredo Simon. Shane Greene, Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Lobstein have been absolutely awful all season, but there may be some hope for Detroit as former ace, Justin Verlander is set to return later this week. How much that will help is yet to be seen, however, considering that he is now a 32 year old injured veteran who had a 4.54 ERA in 2014.
CLEVELAND, OH – JUNE 6: Starting pitcher Danny Salazar #31 celebrates with David Murphy #7 and Nick Swisher #33 of the Cleveland Indians after Salazar left the game during the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field on June 6, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Cleveland Indians
The Indians have been extremely hot since the beginning of May and the reason why is the old saying of “pitching, pitching, Jason Kipnis.” The Indians first four starters, Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, are among the best in baseball, each sitting in the top 21 in FIP in the AL. While their ERA’s don’t quite match, this is largely due to the extremely poor defense behind them, one of two reasons the Indians haven’t been winning quite as often as they should be.
The other primary reason is that the lineup is a mess. After Kipnis and the injured Michael Brantley (DTD: sore back), the Indians most productive hitter is the platoon of David Murphy and Ryan Raburn. Getting few results from Nick Swisher, Carlos Santana and Michael Bourn and negative results from Lonnie Chisenhall and Jose Ramirez has lead to lead to less than three runs per game over their past six. Somehow, thanks to their pitching, they still won three games in this stretch, two of which were games where the offense put up just two runs.
In order to fix both of the Indians issues, Cleveland made two big moves on Sunday night, demoting Chisenhall and Ramirez for top 3B prospect Giovanny Urshela and the ultimate HR/SO threat, Zach Walters. This may or may not improve the offense, but should definitely fix most of the defensive issues with Urshela becoming the starting 3B and Mike Aviles the starting short stop. Not far behind is Francisco Lindor, the Indians top prospect and fourth in all of baseball, so the Indians will likely keep improving over the season, even without external additions.
CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 05: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox hugs Avisail Garcia #26 after Garcia was hits a by a pitch to walk in the winning run against the Detroit Tigers at U.S. Cellular Field on June 5, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. The White Sox defeated the Tigers 4-3 in 11 innings.(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/ Getty Images)
Chicago White Sox
The point of a dark horse team is that they aren’t supposed to win, but you think they could. The White Sox are doing what they were supposed to do. Like the Indians and Twins, they struggled early on this year with a 12-17 record to start the season. Like the Royals and Tigers, they have struggled of late going 7-13 in their last twenty.
While Chicago does have a few high points, including Chris Sale, who should at least be considered the best left hander in baseball if not the best pitcher in the American League and the Rookie of the Year who was supposed to be an MVP candidate this year, Jose Abreu, they simply don’t have enough of a supporting cast to keep things together this year.
This is nothing against the White Sox. The Central division is the toughest in the AL to this point with a .523 winning percent overall compared to .501 in the East and .486 in the West. While there are teams playing well in each division, no other division has multiple dominant teams and four legitimate contenders for the division title. If the White Sox were still in the West, against whom they are 6-3, they would have a reasonable chance at a post-season appearance this year, but since they are in the Central (13-21 within the division), their chances have already been reduced severely.
