Brady Aiken made a mistake. He was chosen first overall in the 2014 draft, the third year in a row Houston had been able to make that pick, entitling him to the largest signing bonus in the draft and a fairly secure future in the Astros organization. After a lengthy period of discussion, he declined to sign their reported final offer of $5M, instead asking for previously agreed to amount of $6.5M. The main topic of dispute was Aiken’s elbow as he failed a physical by the Astros medical staff that caused them to lower their initial offer. It turned out that the Astros were right and Aiken needed Tommy John surgery early this year to repair his UCL.
There have only been two other first overall MLB draft picks to decline to sign, Tim Belcher 1983 and Danny Goodwin 1971, and both were ultimately redrafted in the number one slot, Belcher in 1984 and Goodwin in 1975. There is no chance whatsoever that Aiken will be picked first overall in 2015 and he will almost certainly not be picked in the first round at all. Of course, anything can happen in the draft and some team could pull a Tim Tebow (he was projected as around a 7th round pick, but was taken by the Broncos in the first round, then proved why he should have been a 7th round pick), but chances are no team will be willing to take the risk.
Originally when he declined to sign, Aiken’s best possible situation would have been to be drafted number one by the Diamondbacks this year, a position slated for $8.6M or $3.6M more than the final Astros offer. Of course, there was no guarantee he would have been taken with this pick and in fact, Baseball America has five of the first six picks in the draft this year being hitters. Even if he had not been hurt, he could have easily fell to the Rockies at three ($6.2M) or the Astros again at five ($4.2M, though he likely wouldn’t have consented to being redrafted by Houston). Given that he could have collected his bonus and begun working with minor league staff a year earlier, the only way not signing could have worked out is if he expected to be taken first in 2015 and had something against the Astros.
A dislike of the Astros organization is personal preference, but that isn’t particularly intelligent either. Because they have had three first overall picks in a row, the Astros minor league system is stacked and should be competitive when Aiken is ready for the Major Leagues in a few years. They have also shown greater faith and support in their young stars, signing Jonathon Singleton to a five year (up to eight with three options), $10M deal before he played a Major League game and securing Jose Altuve with four year (up to six with two options), $12.5M deal. Aiken was made one of the luckiest people on the planet when the Astros chose him first ahead of the more MLB ready Carlos Rodon and the hardest throwing pitcher, Tyler Kolek. Aiken decided to stare that gift horse straight in the mouth and take his chances on his own.
Between 2000 and 2010, there were 16 first round picks who didn’t didn’t sign and of those, six were chosen at a higher position the second time, eight lower and one in the exact same spot (Wade Townsend taken in the first round, pick eight in both 2004 and 2005). While the situation is not identical, the closest comparison to Aiken in recent years may have been Karsten Whitson, who was taken ninth overall out of high school by the Padres in 2010. Whitson preferred to attend college and, before being drafted a second time, had shoulder surgery and subsequently fell to the 37th round in 2013. Because he still had eligibility left, he was able to wait out one more season and didn’t sign until the 2014 draft when he was taken by the Red Sox in the 11th round.
Even with time for him to recover and prove himself again, Whitson still lost 10 rounds worth of bonus money. Of the 16 players mentioned, Whitson was the furthest to fall and only one other player, Alan Horne, had a similar situation where he was also a first round pick who dropped to 30, then was ultimately redrafted and signed in the 11th round.
There have been recent successes for players who have declined their first round selection with three players moving up to first overall, Luke Hochevar (originally picked 40th), Gerrit Cole (28th) and one of those three first overall Astros picks, Mark Appel (8th), but as stated, once already picked first overall, there is no where to go but down.
It seemed as if Aiken had originally planned on an MLB career out of high school as he decided not to use a scholarship to UCLA instead attending a postgraduate school in Bradenton, Florida. Now, his career lies in wait of the 2015 draft. The best option for his life would be to accept wherever he is selected this time and enjoy the regular salary and medical care that being a minor leaguer entails while biding his time until he can prove himself to his new organization.
He has certainly lost far more than the $1.5M he was quibbling over last summer, but could still be a Major League success if he begins working with minor league staff now instead of in a few years. Even if he is taken as late as the 30th round, having a solid support team around him and Major League quality facilities (many programs rehab injured minor league players at their MLB Spring Training facilities) will eventually be more beneficial to his Major League career than spending another year in the amateur ranks trying to get back into the top ten rounds.
There is no real prediction here for where Aiken will fall in this years draft, although he will certainly be drafted somewhere and probably not by the Astros. Since 2000, of the 3,453 players who have not signed the first time they were drafted (not including the 285 from the 2014 draft), only 2.6% were not drafted a second time, many of whom were taken between the 41st and the 50th rounds, rounds that no longer exist. Aiken will be drafted again in 2015 and if he has any sense, he will take whatever he is offered and not let missed opportunities affect him. It should hurt him each time the Astros win an AL West title (of which they could take many over the next decade), but that shouldn’t stop him from carving out his own personal Major League career irrelevant of past mistakes.
