Growing up just an hour’s drive from Milwaukee I got to see all of Prince Fielder’s rise to greatness with the Brewers. There was definitely an electric feeling when he would come to plate. You just knew he was going to do something special and he usually did. That’s why I was pretty sad when he left and annoyed when everyone seemed to predict his decline. I was more than a little upset when it seemed like those people might be right. So I’m equally pleased to see his resurgence in this early season. But is it real?
In his time with the Brewers (2006-2011, ignoring 2005 which was just a cup of coffee) he slashed .282/.391/.541 (.393 wOBA, 141 wOBA) with a .259 ISO. In those six seasons he averaged 38 home runs.
In his first season with the Tigers he slashed .313/.412/.528 (.398 wOBA, 153 wRC+) with a .215 ISO. That’s still very good, but that ISO is significantly lower than the previous year. He also went from 38 HR with in his last year with the Brewers to 30.
In his second year in Detroit he slashed .279/.362/.457 (.358 wOBA, 125 wRC+) with a .178 ISO. That’s a pretty stark contrast to every other year of his career. By wOBA it was the worst offensive season of his career. And the ISO was more than 30 points lower than his previous career low. His 25 HR was also a career low. This was all quite alarming.
Apparently it was alarming enough for the Tigers to deal him to the Rangers. His first year with them was a disaster. He played in only 42 games (178 PA) slashing .247/.360/.360 (.305 wOBA, 89 wRC+) and a .113 ISO. It was largely the result of a neck injury that required surgery in May of last year. He would miss the rest of the season. Many believed this was more or less the end of Prince Fielder being a potent offensive player.
So far this year (48 games, 212 PA) he’s slashed .361/.410/.577 (.426 wOBA, 172 wRC+) with a .216 ISO. All signs point to a return to form of sorts for the 31 year old first baseman. I’m personally overjoyed to see Prince slugging again, but I would caution Ranger fans not to expect him to keep this pace up.
For one thing, he has a .377 BABIP. His career BABIP is .303 and his single season high is .321 from 2012. When that comes down so will his his batting average and on-base percentage. Of course that doesn’t mean both of those things can’t still be good.
His 5.7 BB% would be a (severe) career low. His lowest single season walk rate came all the way back in 2006 when he walked in 9.1% of his plate appearances. Since then he’s never had lower than double digit walk rates. That includes last year. So even if (or more appropriately when) his BABIP comes down, his walk rate going up should help counteract some loss in OBP.
What’s really encouraging is that he’s hitting for power again. I think there is a good chance that .577 slugging cools off a bit, but I don’t see any reason why he can’t keep his ISO north of .200. His LD%/GB%/FB% all look right around normal for him. His 16.4% HR/FB is a bit below his career average, but that’s not unexpected for a player in his early 30’s. Age related decline hits everyone.
So, is this Prince Fielder for real? Yes and no. The average, on-base, and slugging should all come down to some extent. But I do think the expectation that he was done was wrong or at least very premature. If you want to believe he’s going to hit 30+ home runs this year I’m not going to argue with you. Mostly because I agree with you. We are still in small sample size territory, but he’s trending upward as the season goes on and he’s already 1/3 of the way to 30 HR.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
